熊貓債券吃掉了點心債券？
熊貓不會冬眠，但點心債券市場就可能冬眠。
Bankers’ penchant for catchy names for Asian bonds, from pandas and dim sum to kangas and masala, can invite some strained metaphors.
銀行家喜歡為亞洲債券起上各種好記的名字，從熊貓和點心到袋鼠(kangas)和馬薩拉(masala)，這種嗜好可能導(dǎo)致一些不那么恰當(dāng)?shù)谋扔鳌?/p>
Untangling this one into a more popular form produces this question: is China’s fast-growing panda bond market eating its counterpart, and Hong Kong delicacy, for breakfast?
比如：中國內(nèi)地快速增長的熊貓債券市場是不是正在將精致小巧的香港點心債券市場當(dāng)早餐吃?
The rapid opening up of China’s enormous onshore bond markets has put the once-vibrant dim sum market — renminbi-denominated bonds sold in Hong Kong — into the shade.
中國迅速開放規(guī)模龐大的在岸債券市場，讓一度生氣勃勃的點心債券市場黯然失色——點心債券是指在香港發(fā)行的人民幣計價債券。
Already this year, $5.6bn of pandas have been sold, more than three times the rate of dim sum bond issuance.
今年已經(jīng)有56億美元的熊貓債券發(fā)行，是點心債券發(fā)行量的三倍多。
The only significant borrower via the dim sum market this year has been the Chinese government, and the bulk of the issuance has been in the form of certificates of deposit sold by banks. HSBC recently slashed its predictions for dim sum issuance this year by at least a third, to between Rmb145bn and Rmb155bn.
今年只有中國政府通過點心債券市場大規(guī)模舉債，而一大部分點心債券發(fā)行是以銀行發(fā)行的存款證形式進(jìn)行的。匯豐(HSBC)最近將今年的點心債券發(fā)行量預(yù)測削減了至少三分之一，預(yù)計發(fā)行量在1450億元人民幣至1550億元人民幣之間。
The situation also partly reflects Bond Connect, a new trading link between Hong Kong and the mainland markets which, since July, allows international investors to trade onshore bonds more easily.
這種狀況也部分歸咎于“債券通”(Bond Connect)。“債券通”是一種新的香港和內(nèi)地市場債券交易互聯(lián)互通機(jī)制，它自今年7月以來讓國際投資者能夠更容易交易內(nèi)地債券。
Recently, Ford’s China operations sold Rmb3.5bn ($536m) in panda bonds backed by car finance loans through the new pipeline.
最近，福特汽車金融(中國)有限公司通過這一新渠道發(fā)行了35億元人民幣(合5.36億美元)由汽車貸款支持的熊貓債券。
That comes after Hungary became the latest country to support the panda market, selling a Rmb1bn three-year bond in July.
在此之前，匈牙利成為支持熊貓債券市場的最新國家，它在今年7月發(fā)售了10億元人民幣的三年期債券。
It also became the first to have borrowed in renminbi onshore as well as offshore, adding to the impression that a dim sum famine was only worsening.
它也是第一個在離岸和在岸市場都發(fā)行了以人民幣計價債券的國家，這更加讓人覺得，點心債券的發(fā)行只會越來越少。
Yet bankers remain reluctant to endorse a full panda-ate-the-dim-sum view, pointing instead to factors behind the Hong Kong market’s decline other than simply the growing attraction of mainland opportunities. That could mean that the dim sum market is in a form of hibernation not terminal decline.
然而，銀行家們依然不愿認(rèn)可“熊貓吃掉點心”的觀點，而是指出除了內(nèi)地機(jī)遇越來越具吸引力以外，香港市場低迷背后的其他因素。這可能意味著點心債券市場進(jìn)入了某種冬眠，而非無可挽回的沒落。
“Short term, the offshore market may be struggling, but long term there are advantages to having both onshore and offshore renminbi bond markets,” said Linan Liu, Greater China macro strategist at Deutsche Bank.
德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)大中華區(qū)宏觀策略師劉立男表示：“短期而言，離岸市場可能萎靡不振，但從長期來說，同時擁有在岸和離岸人民幣債券市場是有利的。”
“For example, the onshore panda market is bigger but the offshore dim sum market is aligned legally to other investment centres, rating agencies are active and there’s established settlement and payment standards.”
“例如，在岸熊貓債券市場規(guī)模更大，但離岸點心市場在法律上與其他投資中心一致，評級機(jī)構(gòu)活躍，而且還有成熟的結(jié)算和支付標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。”
Arguably the biggest factor in the dim sum market’s decline has been not Beijing’s Panda bond push, but its crackdown on capital outflows.
可以說，點心債券市場低迷的最大原因不是中國政府對熊貓債券的推動，而是其對資本外流的打擊。
Amid the country’s efforts to stop renminbi being exchanged for dollars, it also stopped banks shifting renminbi across the border between their units and at one point, restricted international payments in its local currency.
中國政府在努力阻止人們將人民幣換成美元的同時，也阻止銀行各機(jī)構(gòu)間跨境轉(zhuǎn)移人民幣，一度還限制用人民幣進(jìn)行國際支付。
The result has been a sharp fall in the amount of renminbi available offshore to invest in products such as bonds. While renminbi deposits in Hong Kong, by far the biggest centre, have stabilised at about Rmb520bn, they are still only about half their 2014 peak levels.
結(jié)果是離岸可投資于債券等產(chǎn)品的人民幣數(shù)量急劇下降。盡管香港人民幣存款穩(wěn)定在5200億元人民幣左右，但仍然只有2014年峰值的約一半。香港是遙遙領(lǐng)先的最大人民幣離岸中心。
Shallower liquidity has raised renminbi borrowing costs in Hong Kong. Beijing’s sale of Rmb7bn in three- and five-year notes in June was its smallest in five years — and also its most expensive.
流動性不足提升了香港的人民幣借款成本。中國政府今年6月在香港發(fā)行了共70億元人民幣的3年期和5年期債券，這是5年來規(guī)模最小的，也是成本最高的。
The notes carried coupons of 3.99 per cent and 4.1 per cent, respectively, compared with onshore borrowing costs of 3.59 per cent and 3.63 per cent.
兩種期限的利率分別是3.99%和4.1%，而在岸借債成本分別是3.59%和3.63%。
But bankers also point to the recent stabilisation of the renminbi, both onshore and off, to suggest that the groundwork is being laid for a dim sum revival.
但銀行家也指出，人民幣在岸和離岸匯率最近企穩(wěn)，為點心債券復(fù)蘇奠定了基礎(chǔ)。
Dollar weakness has pushed the Chinese currency to its strongest levels in a year. Analysts have revised forecasts for a sharp weakening by the end of the year to predict that the currency will remain roughly flat, a sharp contrast following two years of depreciation fears and volatility.
美元疲弱推動人民幣匯率升至一年來的最高水平。分析師修正了人民幣到今年年底急劇貶值的預(yù)測，轉(zhuǎn)而預(yù)測人民幣匯率將會基本持平，這與兩年來擔(dān)憂貶值和波動的觀點形成鮮明對比。
“Renminbi had been crazy and that scared a lot of people,” said one banker. “If it stays like this, like now, for long enough it will change sentiment.”
一位銀行家表示：“人民幣一直很瘋狂，這讓許多人感到害怕。如果它就像現(xiàn)在這樣保持足夠長時間的穩(wěn)定，那就會改變情緒。”
Borrowers’ access to the panda market is not straightforward either. Companies can only present accounts under either Chinese, Hong Kong or EU accounting standards — US rules are not accepted.
借款者進(jìn)入熊貓市場并不簡單。公司只能根據(jù)中國內(nèi)地、香港或者歐盟會計準(zhǔn)則提供賬目——不接受美國會計準(zhǔn)則。
China has not made it clear either whether funds raised can be moved offshore, meaning that borrowers will need a local use for the funds. And approval for panda issues is also still granted on a case-by-case basis.
中國也沒有明確表示籌集的資金能否被轉(zhuǎn)移到境外，這意味著借款者將需要在中國內(nèi)地使用這些資金。而且熊貓債券發(fā)行的批準(zhǔn)仍然需要“一事一議”。
“For as long as there are two markets, issuers will pick and choose based on their attractiveness,” said Justin Chan, co-head of Asia-Pacific markets at HSBC.
匯豐亞太市場聯(lián)席主管陳紹宗(Justin Chan)表示：“只要存在兩個市場，發(fā)行者就會基于它們的吸引力進(jìn)行挑選。”
“Some multinationals will be thinking about establishing an early panda presence for strategic reasons. But for many, it will be about which one is cheaper and also which is easier in terms of administration and process.”
“一些跨國公司將會出于戰(zhàn)略原因考慮盡早進(jìn)入熊貓債券市場，但對許多公司來說，考慮的是哪一個成本更低，以及哪一個在管理和程序方面更便利。”
