中國的“茶壺”煉油廠謀求抱團求生

Plans by China’s independent oil refiners to merge are the latest indication of the pressures wrought by the country’s growing refining overcapacity, which has triggered a battle for market share and thrown into question a long-awaited liberalisation of the country’s oil sector.

中國獨立煉油廠的合并計劃，是中國日益加劇的煉油產(chǎn)能過剩帶來的壓力的最新表現(xiàn)。產(chǎn)能過剩引發(fā)市場份額爭奪戰(zhàn)，也讓人們等待已久的石油行業(yè)開放陷入不確定。

China’s annual refining capacity is set to reach 808m tonnes by the end of 2017, about 16 per cent of the world’s capacity and just behind the US’s more than 900m. Within the next three to five years, industry experts expect China to overtake the US as the world’s largest oil refining nation.

到2017年底，中國的年煉油產(chǎn)能將達到8.08億噸，約占世界產(chǎn)能的16%，僅次于美國的逾9億噸。在接下來3到5年，行業(yè)專家預(yù)計中國將取代美國成為世界最大煉油國。

Refining capacity in China has increased 44 per cent from 2011, even as economic growth began showing signs of slowing. That has led to a widening discrepancy between China’s ability to produce refined oil and its demand for refined products.

自2011年以來，雖然經(jīng)濟增長開始出現(xiàn)放緩跡象，中國的煉油產(chǎn)能卻增長了44%。這導(dǎo)致中國精煉油產(chǎn)能與成品油需求之間的差距日益擴大。

Part of the rapid growth is due to smaller independent refineries, known as “teapots”, many of which operate large and complex plants. Some of the major teapots are now merging into one conglomerate, the Shandong Refining Energy Group — a plan approved last week by the Shandong government.

中國煉油產(chǎn)能的快速增長，部分歸功于規(guī)模較小、被稱為“茶壺”的獨立煉油廠。許多“茶壺”煉油廠運營著大型綜合工廠。一些主要的“茶壺”煉油廠現(xiàn)在將合并為一家企業(yè)集團——山東煉化能源集團(Shandong Refining Energy Group)。上周，該計劃已獲山東政府部門批準。

The teapots are clustered in the province of Shandong, known for its tolerance of private enterprise. Hopes that they would be allowed to freely compete in a national oil market dominated by state-owned refiners such as PetroChina and Sinopec rose when they were formally allowed to import crude oil two years ago.

“茶壺”煉油廠集中分布在以對民營企業(yè)寬容而著稱的山東省。兩年前，這些煉油廠被正式批準進口原油的時候，人們?nèi)计鹆诉@樣的希望：這些煉油廠未來會獲準在中國石油市場上，與主導(dǎo)市場的中石油(PetroChina)和中石化(SinoPec)等國有煉油企業(yè)自由競爭。

Access to imported crude oil helped compensate for the effects of the anti-corruption purge that has swept the country’s oil industry over the past four years. Previously, crude from state-operated oilfields often “leaked” to the teapots; the purge cut off some of that illicit supply while a prolonged drop in global oil prices has shuttered some high-cost domestic fields.

獲準進口原油有助于抵消過去4年席卷中國石油行業(yè)的反腐整肅行動帶來的影響。此前，國營油田的原油經(jīng)常“滲漏”到“茶壺”煉油廠那里;整肅行動切斷了一些不正當渠道的供應(yīng)，而全球油價的長期下滑也使一些高成本的國內(nèi)油田關(guān)閉。

Once they could import, the teapots’ production increased, allowing them to double their Chinese market share to 30 per cent over the past two years. Their improved performance has come at the expense of the state-owned oil groups, which have spent billions in recent years upgrading and expanding their refineries. It has also left the teapots burdened with heavy debt.

獲準進口后，“茶壺”煉油廠的產(chǎn)量隨之增加，使它們得以在過去兩年實現(xiàn)在中國市場上所占份額翻番、達到30%。這些煉油廠的市場份額增加，意味著國有石油集團的市場份額減少，后者近年來已花費數(shù)十億升級和擴建自己的煉油廠。為實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)量增加，“茶壺”煉油廠也背上了沉重的債務(wù)。

But this year there has been an apparent policy reversal, calling into question Beijing’s commitment to liberalising the oil sector amid a broader ideological swing in favour of state-owned companies. The teapots’ export quotas were cut off, trapping their output in China. Their crude import quotas also have been issued less consistently than last year.

但今年出現(xiàn)了明顯的政策逆轉(zhuǎn)，在意識形態(tài)朝著有利于國企的方向傾斜的整體形勢下，政策的逆轉(zhuǎn)令北京方面開放石油行業(yè)的承諾遭到質(zhì)疑。“茶壺”煉油廠的出口配額被砍掉，它們的產(chǎn)出只能困在國內(nèi)。對這些煉油廠的進口配額發(fā)放也不如去年那么穩(wěn)定。

“It’s a bit confusing what China wants to do because on the one hand it is very keen to reduce excess capacity,” said Mriganka Jaipuriyar, of S&P Global Platts, an energy data provider. The government is still offering independent refiners crude import quotas, while cutting off their access to export markets, she said.

“中國的意圖讓人有點看不明白，因為一方面來說，中國非常希望減少過剩的產(chǎn)能。”能源數(shù)據(jù)提供商標準普爾全球普氏(S&P Global Platts)的姆里岡卡•賈伊普里亞爾(Mriganka Jaipuriyar)說。她說，中國政府依然給獨立煉油廠發(fā)放進口配額，但又同時切斷了它們進入出口市場的渠道。

The result is rising stocks of refined fuel trapped in the country, triggering a rare retail price battle led by China’s two big state-owned oil enterprises, Sinopec and PetroChina. The pair are seeking higher export quotas for the fourth quarter, with fuel exports up 9 per cent so far this year.

結(jié)果是困在國內(nèi)的成品油庫存上升，導(dǎo)致中國兩大油企——中石化和中石油帶頭發(fā)動了一場罕見的零售價格戰(zhàn)。這兩家企業(yè)正尋求在第四季度獲得更高的出口配額，中國成品油今年迄今累計出口已增長9%。

Adding to the glut is the output from large plants that produce refined fuel from coal, at cheaper cost than even the teapots can manage.

生產(chǎn)煤制油的大精煉廠的產(chǎn)出加劇了供應(yīng)過剩，這類精煉廠的成本甚至比“茶壺”煉油廠更低廉。

The pressure explains the independent refineries’ drive to consolidate, using the favoured Chinese argument that large-and-indebted ‘champions’ are preferable to competition among smaller players. The large debt of the new Shandong Refining Energy conglomerate may ironically serve as protection for the teapots, giving banks and local governments a stake in their survival.

這種壓力解釋了獨立煉油廠為什么想要整合，這其中的邏輯是在中國流行的一種說法：比起一群規(guī)模較小的市場參與者相互競爭，負債累累的大型“冠軍”企業(yè)更可取。諷刺的是，新成立的山東煉化能源集團的大額債務(wù)可能會成為這些“茶壺”煉油廠的保護傘，因為它們的存亡將事關(guān)銀行和地方政府的利益。

“A massive shutdown of the teapots is unlikely, though some smaller ones are facing difficulties,” said Liao Na, vice-president of energy consultancy ICIS China.

“‘茶壺’煉油廠大面積倒閉不太可能發(fā)生，盡管一些較小的‘茶壺’煉油廠正面臨困境。”能源咨詢機構(gòu)安迅思(ICIS China)副總裁廖娜表示。