FT社評(píng)：颶風(fēng)“哈維”的“成本核算”

Contrary to much commentary, America’s response to Hurricane Harvey has so far been good. It is tragic but remarkable that fewer than 40 people have lost their lives in Houston and its environs, given the scale of the disaster. The death toll is likely to rise but the contrast with South Asia, where more than 1,200 have died from flooding, is yawning. The US federal disaster response system picked up valuable lessons from the debacle of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, such as deferring to authorities on the ground and drawing on the knowledge of local volunteers.

與諸多評(píng)價(jià)相反的是，迄今為止，美國(guó)對(duì)颶風(fēng)“哈維”(Hurricane Harvey)的應(yīng)對(duì)其實(shí)還行。它是一場(chǎng)悲劇，但考慮到這場(chǎng)災(zāi)難的規(guī)模，它又很了不起——在休斯敦及其周邊，喪生者不到40人。死亡人數(shù)很可能會(huì)上升，但與南亞的情況有天壤之別，在南亞，已有1200多人死于洪水。美國(guó)聯(lián)邦救災(zāi)系統(tǒng)從對(duì)2005年颶風(fēng)“卡特里娜”(Hurricane Katrina)的極其失敗的應(yīng)對(duì)中汲取了寶貴的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)，例如要遵從當(dāng)?shù)卣囊庖姡约耙卯?dāng)?shù)刂驹刚叩牟抛R(shí)。

Alas, the same cannot be said of America’s approach to disaster preparedness. Though Harvey is classified as a once-in-500-year flood, this is the third time Houston has been blighted with freak rainfall in as many years. Global warming is real. From the Indian monsoon to America’s hurricane season, extreme weather is becoming more common. Unless we sharply cut carbon emissions, and build more resilient systems to cope with their effects, the cost of such disasters will keep mounting.

遺憾的是，美國(guó)的防災(zāi)方針就無法得到同樣的好評(píng)了。雖然“哈維”帶來的是五百年一遇的洪水，但這卻是休斯敦三年來第三次遭受反常降雨的侵襲。全球變暖是真實(shí)的。從印度季風(fēng)到美國(guó)的颶風(fēng)季，極端天氣變得越來越普遍。除非我們大幅削減碳排放并建立更有彈性的系統(tǒng)來應(yīng)對(duì)其影響，否則此類災(zāi)害造成的損失將不斷增加。

Prevention is cheaper than cure. With each degree-Celsius rise in the global temperature, there is a 7 per cent increase in the atmosphere’s capacity to hold water. That means more extreme storms and floods. Though no specific natural disaster can be solely attributed to global warming, there is no doubt it boosts their frequency and severity. It was thus reckless of Donald Trump’s administration to pull out of the Paris agreement on climate change earlier this year.

防要比治便宜。全球氣溫每上升1攝氏度，大氣的容水能力就增加7%。這意味著更為極端的暴風(fēng)雨和洪水。雖然沒有某一特定的自然災(zāi)害可以完全歸因于全球變暖，但毫無疑問全球變暖會(huì)加大災(zāi)害的頻率和嚴(yán)重程度。所以說，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)政府在今年早些時(shí)候退出巴黎氣候變化協(xié)定是草率之舉。

Encouragingly, the rest of the world, including erstwhile sceptics such as India, did not follow suit. Moreover, many US states and cities, such as California, are continuing to adhere to the Paris deal targets. Such efforts are invaluable. But there is no substitute for a US commitment to spearhead the global drive. America remains the second-largest carbon emitter behind China and ahead of India. Mr Trump is committed to reviving the fortunes of America’s heaviest-emitting industries. Given the competitiveness of US alternative energy technology, this is morally wrong and commercially myopic.

令人鼓舞的是，世界其他地區(qū)——包括印度等過去持懷疑態(tài)度的國(guó)家——都沒有這樣做。此外，美國(guó)的許多州和城市，比如加利福尼亞州，都在繼續(xù)遵守巴黎協(xié)定的目標(biāo)。這樣的努力是無價(jià)的。但沒有什么能取代美國(guó)承諾引領(lǐng)全球行動(dòng)。美國(guó)仍是排在中國(guó)之后、印度之前的全球第二大碳排放國(guó)。特朗普正致力于振興美國(guó)碳排放最嚴(yán)重的產(chǎn)業(yè)?？紤]到美國(guó)替代能源技術(shù)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，這么做在道義上是錯(cuò)誤的，在商業(yè)上是目光短淺的。

Even if Mr Trump were to embrace US leadership, the need to build more resilient systems is urgent. Houston is a classic case in point. In spite of having suffered numerous deluges this century, America’s fourth-largest city has ignored the lessons. Harris County, which includes Houston, has had America’s fastest-growing population in eight of the past nine years. Uniquely among big US cities, Houston has no zoning laws or building codes. Thus vast tracts of prairie, inland waterways and green space have been paved over to make way for residential developments and shopping malls.

即使特朗普欣然認(rèn)同美國(guó)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位，也迫切需要建立更有彈性的系統(tǒng)。休斯敦就是一個(gè)典型的例子。盡管本世紀(jì)已遭遇多次洪水，這座美國(guó)第四大城市卻對(duì)教訓(xùn)視而不見。休斯敦所在的哈里斯縣過去9年有8年人口增速位居全美第一。在美國(guó)所有大城市中，只有休斯敦沒有區(qū)劃法或建筑規(guī)范。因此，大片草原、內(nèi)陸水道和綠地被填平，為住宅開發(fā)和商場(chǎng)讓路。

The effect has been drastically to weaken Houston’s resilience to flooding. Allowing developers to build pretty much anywhere and how they like has certainly kept the cost of housing low. But the bill comes due with each natural disaster. The cost of Hurricane Harvey is estimated at between $75bn and $90bn, and counting. Fewer than one in six homes affected are covered by federal flood insurance. Most of those who have lost their homes have been wiped out.

其結(jié)果是，休斯敦抵御洪水的能力大大減弱。允許開發(fā)商在幾乎任何地方隨心所欲地興建房屋，肯定能壓低住房成本。但每場(chǎng)自然災(zāi)害都是還賬的時(shí)刻。“哈維”造成的損失估計(jì)在750億到900億美元之間，而且數(shù)字還在不斷增加。僅有不到六分之一的受災(zāi)家庭被聯(lián)邦洪水保險(xiǎn)覆蓋。絕大多數(shù)失去家園的人失去了一切。

As the costs of global warming become more tangible, public action must keep pace. The most vulnerable cities, such as Houston and Miami, need to overhaul their development priorities. The days when building associations dictate housing policy should be over. Washington has done a good job of improving its disaster responsiveness. It must now make prevention a national priority.

隨著全球變暖造成的損失變得更加清晰，公共行動(dòng)的腳步也必須跟上來。那些最脆弱的城市，比如休斯敦和邁阿密，需要全面調(diào)整其開發(fā)重點(diǎn)。建筑協(xié)會(huì)決定住房政策的日子該結(jié)束了。華盛頓方面在改進(jìn)災(zāi)害響應(yīng)方面做得不錯(cuò)。它現(xiàn)在必須把防災(zāi)當(dāng)作全國(guó)性的優(yōu)先事項(xiàng)。