中國(guó)最受歡迎的社交媒體應(yīng)用微信(WeChat)的用戶數(shù)量正快速接近10億,但分析師們表示,隨著該公司努力實(shí)現(xiàn)全球雄心,其增速可能會(huì)大幅放緩。
Numbers released this month as part of quarterlyearnings from parent Tencent showed that WeChat — which is called Weixin in China — had 963m monthly active users (MAUs) by the end of June. That was up 19.5 per cent year-on-year and 2.7 per cent on a quarterly basis, but the annual rate was a deceleration from 28 per cent at the end of 2016.
騰訊(Tencent)季度盈利報(bào)告公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,截至6月底,微信月活躍用戶為9.63億,同比增長(zhǎng)19.5%,較前一季度增長(zhǎng)2.7%。但年度增速較2016年底的28%有所下滑。China Channel創(chuàng)始人馬修•布倫南(Matthew Brennan)表示:“這說(shuō)明,它現(xiàn)在確實(shí)在觸頂。我認(rèn)為,它將達(dá)到10億,但不會(huì)超過(guò)太多。”自2011年微信問(wèn)世以來(lái),他一直在跟蹤微信的發(fā)展。
“That shows you it’s really topping out now. I think it will hit 1bn but not much beyond that,” said Matthew Brennan, founder of China Channel, who has been following WeChat since its launch in 2011.
弘亞世代(Pacific Epoch)分析師Canaan Guo預(yù)測(cè),未來(lái)3到5年,年度復(fù)合增速將達(dá)到4%,他還預(yù)測(cè),微信的國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)最終將涵蓋中國(guó)幾乎全部14億人口,不過(guò),他補(bǔ)充稱(chēng),這可能需要20年或更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。
Canaan Guo, analyst at Pacific Epoch, projects a compound annual growth rate of 4 per cent over the next three to five years and forecasts that WeChat’s domestic market ultimately will comprise virtually the entire 1.4bn Chinese population — though it could take 20 years or more to get there, he adds.
“微信現(xiàn)在的情況是……他們?cè)诤芏喾矫嫣幱谑貏?shì),”布倫南表示,“因?yàn)檫@個(gè)平臺(tái)已非常成熟,容易摘取的果實(shí)已不多。”
“WeChat is in a space where . . . they are in many ways on the defensive,” said Mr Brennan. “Because the platform is very mature they have run out of low-hanging fruit.”
騰訊最初的即時(shí)通信平臺(tái)QQ的用戶數(shù)量已開(kāi)始減少。在最新季度,QQ的月活躍用戶減少5.4%,至8.50億,而前一季度減少了2.2%。
Tencent’s QQ, the Chinese internet company’s original instant messaging platform, has already begun.
一些分析師將此歸咎于QQ的較年輕用戶轉(zhuǎn)向微信,這與西方的趨勢(shì)相反,在西方,年輕人正從Facebook轉(zhuǎn)向其照片分享應(yīng)用Instagram和Snap的Snapchat,這兩款應(yīng)用對(duì)較年輕用戶更具吸引力。