IMF稱中國債務(wù)水平“危險(xiǎn)”

China’s economy will grow faster than expected over the next three years because of the government’s reluctance to rein in “dangerous” levels of debt, the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)周二警告，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)在未來三年的增長將快于預(yù)期，原因是政府不愿遏制“危險(xiǎn)”水平的債務(wù)。

In an annual review of the world’s second-largest economy, IMF staff said China’s annual economic growth would average 6.4 per cent in 2018-20, compared with a previous estimate of 6 per cent. The IMF is also predicting that the Chinese economy will expand 6.7 per cent this year, up from its earlier forecast of 6.2 per cent growth.

在對世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體中國的年度審議中，IMF工作人員表示，2018年至2020年期間中國年度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長平均將為6.4%，而之前的估計(jì)為6%。IMF還預(yù)測，今年中國經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長6.7%，快于之前預(yù)測的6.2%增速。

The Chinese government, which pledged to double the size of the economy between 2010 and 2020, has tolerated a rapid run-up in debt in order to meet its target. “The [Chinese] authorities will do what it takes to attain the 2020 GDP target,” the IMF said.

承諾在2010年至2020年期間實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模翻番的中國政府，近期容忍債務(wù)快速上升以達(dá)到這一目標(biāo)。“中國當(dāng)局將為實(shí)現(xiàn)2020年GDP目標(biāo)采取一切必要行動，”IMF表示。

As a result, the IMF now expects China’s non-financial sector debt to exceed 290 per cent of GDP by 2022, compared with 235 per cent last year. The fund had previously estimated that debt levels would stabilise at 270 per cent of GDP over the next five years.

其結(jié)果是，IMF現(xiàn)在預(yù)計(jì)，到2022年，中國的非金融部門債務(wù)將超過GDP的290%，而去年為235%。該組織此前曾估計(jì)，債務(wù)水平將在未來五年期間穩(wěn)定在相當(dāng)于GDP 270%的水平。

“International experience suggests that China’s current credit trajectory is dangerous with increasing risks of a disruptive adjustment,” the IMF said in the strongly worded report.

“國際經(jīng)驗(yàn)似乎表明，中國目前的信貸軌跡是危險(xiǎn)的，出現(xiàn)一場破壞性調(diào)整的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越來越大，”IMF在這份措辭強(qiáng)烈的報(bào)告中表示。

Higher debt levels, it added, would reduce Beijing’s “fiscal space” to react to any potential crisis in the interbank market or a “loss of confidence” in wealth management products, sales of which have unpinned the rapid expansion of China’s shadow banking sector.

該組織補(bǔ)充說，更高的債務(wù)水平將減少北京方面的“財(cái)政空間”，以應(yīng)對銀行間市場的任何潛在危機(jī)或人們對理財(cái)產(chǎn)品“失去信心”;這類產(chǎn)品的銷售支撐了中國影子銀行業(yè)的快速擴(kuò)張。

Jin Zhongxia, China’s representative at the IMF, rejected the fund’s warnings. “The stronger performance [of the Chinese economy] since 2017 was not merely driven by policy stimulus but [is] rather a reflection of rebalancing and structural adjustment,” he said in Beijing’s official reply. “The [IMF] staff’s scenario of an abrupt slowdown of the Chinese economy . . . is highly unlikely.”

中國駐IMF執(zhí)行董事金中夏拒絕了該組織的警告。“進(jìn)入2017年以來中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的較強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)不只是由政策刺激推動的，而是反映了再平衡和結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整，”他在北京方面的官方答復(fù)中表示，“IMF工作人員對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)突然減速的假定情形……是極不可能發(fā)生的。”

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, Chinese authorities unleashed a lending spree that more than quadrupled total debt to $28tn at the end of 2016 .

全球金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后，中國當(dāng)局釋放了一股信貸洪流，使中國的總債務(wù)到2016年底增至原有水平的四倍多，達(dá)到28萬億美元。

In its report, the IMF noted that China’s “credit efficiency” had deteriorated sharply over the past decade, with ever larger amounts of money needed to generate the same amount of growth. “In 2008, new credit of about Rmb6.5tn was needed to raise nominal GDP by Rmb5tn,” the fund said. “In 2016 it took Rmb20tn in new credit.”

IMF在其報(bào)告中指出，過去10年期間中國的“信貸效率”急劇惡化，需要越來越多的資金來產(chǎn)生同樣數(shù)量的增長。“2008年時，需要大約6.5萬億元人民幣的新增信貸使名義GDP提高5萬億元人民幣，”該組織表示，“到了2016年，同樣的增長需要20萬億元人民幣的新增信貸。”

The IMF added that had the Chinese government not turned on the credit taps, average real GDP growth in the five years to 2016 would have averaged 5.3 per cent rather than 7.3 per cent.

IMF補(bǔ)充說，要不是中國政府打開信貸龍頭，截至2016年的五年期間實(shí)際GDP平均增長率原本將為5.3%，而不是7.3%。

The fund was also critical of state-owned enterprise reform, noting that large swaths of the economy remain off-limits to private sector companies that nonetheless account for more than 80 per cent of employment and 50 per cent of tax revenues.

該組織對國企改革也持批評態(tài)度，指出很多經(jīng)濟(jì)部門仍然把私營企業(yè)擋在門外，盡管如此，私營企業(yè)還是貢獻(xiàn)了80%以上的就業(yè)和50%的政府稅收收入。

“Private sector participation in SOEs remain limited [and] political influence has been institutionalised,” the IMF said, referring to the growing clout of Communist party committees in most SOEs.

“私營部門參與國企仍然有限，而政治影響已經(jīng)制度化，”IMF表示，該組織提到黨委在大多數(shù)國企內(nèi)部的影響力越來越大。

In response, Chinese authorities argued that “institutionalising the Communist party’s leadership within SOEs would help increase [their] efficiency”.

作為回應(yīng)，中國當(dāng)局辯稱，在國有企業(yè)內(nèi)部把黨的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)制度化，將有助于提高這些企業(yè)的效率。