美國對中國失望 轉而寄望俄羅斯對朝施壓

When Kim Yong-nam, North Korea’s ceremonial leader, attended the Iranian presidential inauguration this month, he flew via Moscow, even though a flight via Beijing would have been much more convenient.

朝鮮名義上的國家元首金永南(Kim Yong Nam)本月參加伊朗總統(tǒng)就職儀式時曾繞道莫斯科，盡管航班從北京中轉要方便得多。

To some observers, the choice of stop-over is emblematic of a North Korean regime that seems increasingly estranged from its Chinese ally over irs nuclear ambitions and more reliant on long-standing ties with Russia. Pyongyang’s shift of attention also creates a potential opening that US diplomats are keep to explore as they search for ways to curb North Korea’s fast-developing nuclear missile programme.

對于一些觀察人士而言，轉機地的選擇標志著朝鮮政權似乎因其核野心越來越與中國盟友疏遠，而更依賴與俄羅斯的長期關系。朝鮮轉變注意力還創(chuàng)造了一個美國外交人士渴望利用的潛在機會，他們正尋找方法限制朝鮮快速發(fā)展的核導彈計劃。

“The North Koreans are offended with China, and many of their political contacts are either frozen or seriously narrowed,” said Valery Sukhinin, Russia’s former ambassador to Pyongyang and one of Moscow’s most seasoned Korea hands.

前俄羅斯駐朝鮮大使、俄羅斯經(jīng)驗最豐富的朝鮮問題專家之一瓦列里•蘇希寧(Valery Sukhinin)表示：“朝鮮對中國不滿，他們之間的很多政治聯(lián)系要么被凍結，要么被大幅收縮。”

North Korean government officials have made several visits to Russia over the past year and sometimes meet at events in Moscow. Some western observers believe that inside North Korea, contacts between Pyongyang officials and Russian diplomats now surpass those with China.

過去一年，朝鮮政府官員多次出訪俄羅斯，有時會在莫斯科的活動上會面。一些西方觀察人士認為，在朝鮮內(nèi)部，朝鮮官員與俄羅斯外交官的接觸現(xiàn)在超過了與中國的接觸。

The Trump administration has become frustrated with China’s reluctance to use its economic leverage — it accounts for 90 per cent of North Korea’s trade — to lean on Kim Jong-un even if it backed a new round of UN sanctions earlier this month.

盡管本月早些時候中國支持了聯(lián)合國(UN)對朝鮮的新一輪制裁，但特朗普(Trump)政府對中國不愿利用經(jīng)濟影響力向金正恩(Kim Jong-un)施壓感到失望。中國占朝鮮對外貿(mào)易的90%。

Even though relations between the US and Russia are poor, Washington has begun to look to Moscow to carry sway in Pyongyang.

雖然美國與俄羅斯之間的關系不好，但美國已開始寄望于俄羅斯對朝鮮施加影響。

“You can see the US testing Russian access and influence in North Korea,” said a western diplomat. “In March and April [US secretary of state Rex] Tillerson was testing Chinese access and influence and that’s being tested now with Russia”.

“你可以看到，美國正在測試俄羅斯在朝鮮的渠道和影響力，”一位西方外交人士表示，“今年3月和4月，(美國國務卿雷克斯•蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson))曾測試中國的渠道和影響力，現(xiàn)在是在測試俄羅斯。”

This month, Mr Tillerson spoke of China and Russia in the same breath when he said the pair have “very good, open channels of communication” with Pyongyang.

本月，蒂勒森同時談到了中國和俄羅斯，他表示，兩國與朝鮮有著“非常良好且暢通的溝通渠道”。

“I’m hopeful that they can use their influence — and I think they do have influence with the regime — to bring them to a point of dialogue,” he said.

他表示：“我希望他們可以利用自己的影響力(我認為他們確實對朝鮮政權有影響力)，讓他們達到可以對話的水平。”

Moscow has in recent months tried to appear reasonably neutral as tensions rose, warning both sides of the perils of escalating rhetoric. Alongside China, it is pushing for talks based on a simultaneous suspension of North Korea’s nuclear and missile testing and of large joint military exercises by US and South Korean forces.

最近幾個月，隨著緊張關系升級，俄羅斯試圖表現(xiàn)出適度的中立，就言論升級的危險向雙方發(fā)出警告。俄羅斯正與中國一道，促成以朝鮮暫停核試驗和導彈試射、同時美國和韓國軍隊暫停大規(guī)模聯(lián)合軍演為基礎的對話。

“The US is waiting to see if there’s a positive response from Pyongyang or if it’s dismissive to see how much leverage Russia has in terms of bringing them to the table,” said the diplomat.

這位外交人士表示：“美國正觀望朝鮮是否會做出正面回應，或者朝鮮是否會對俄在把朝鮮帶到談判桌旁來方面所具備的影響力表示不屑。”

But American expectations that Russia could become a key player in mediating the crisis are treated with scepticism in Moscow.

但美國這種對俄羅斯或將在斡旋這場危機中發(fā)揮重要作用的預期，在俄羅斯卻受到質疑。

Russian experts warn that Moscow’s support, alongside China, for the latest UN Security Council sanctions on North Korea has undermined what little leverage it had left on its former ally.

俄羅斯專家警告稱，俄羅斯和中國一起支持聯(lián)合國安理會對朝鮮的最新制裁，進一步削弱了俄羅斯對這個曾經(jīng)的盟友所剩無幾的影響力。

More than 17 years ago, Russia replaced the Soviet Union’s alliance treaty with North Korea, under which it was required to come to Pyongyang’s support in the event of a military attack, with a friendship treaty without this clause.

蘇聯(lián)曾與朝鮮簽訂同盟性質的條約，根據(jù)條約規(guī)定，蘇聯(lián)必須在朝鮮遭受武裝攻擊的情況下為其提供支持。逾17年前，俄羅斯與朝鮮簽訂的友好條約去掉了這一條款。

“North Korea had therefore long lowered its expectations towards us. But at least they would not blame or target us in their angry rhetoric,” said Mr Sukhinin. “But in their most recent statements, Russia was criticised by name for the first time — for bowing to the US and supporting Washington.”

蘇希寧表示：“朝鮮因此早就降低了對我們的期望。但至少他們不會用憤怒的言辭責備或者針對我們。但在最近的聲明中，俄羅斯首次被點名指責，理由是俄羅斯屈從美國并支持華盛頓方面。”

He added that US president Donald Trump’s public expression of thanks to China and Russia for supporting the last UNSC resolution had been particularly unhelpful. “If this continues, they may distance themselves from us, too. They feel isolated, and their response to that is to ratchet up their nuclear programme.”

他補充稱，美國總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)公開表示感謝中國和俄羅斯支持最新的聯(lián)合國安理會決議，這尤其有消極作用。“如果這種狀況持續(xù)的話，他們可能也會疏遠我們。他們感覺受到孤立，他們的回應是加快核武器計劃。”

Perhaps most importantly, the Krermlin has a radically different assessment from the US of the stand-off over North Korea’s nuclear programme. “From the Russian government’s point of view, the disruptive power in this crisis is still the US,” said Alexander Gabuev, an Asia expert at the Carnegie Moscow Centre.

或許最重要的是，克里姆林宮對朝鮮核計劃僵局的評估與美國截然不同。卡內(nèi)基莫斯科中心(Carnegie Moscow Center)亞洲問題專家亞歷山大•加布耶夫(Alexander Gabuev)表示：“從俄羅斯政府的角度來看，這場危機中的破壞性力量仍是美國。”

Russian officials see North Korea’s obsession with developing nuclear weapons as the understandable attempt of a weak, isolated country to protect itself against a vastly more powerful adversary.

俄羅斯官員認為，朝鮮作為一個受到孤立的弱小國家，癡迷于發(fā)展核武器保護自己免受實力強得多的對手的傷害，是可以理解的。

Officially, Moscow refuses to recognise North Korea as a nuclear power, hence its support for UN sanctions. But most Russian foreign policy officials and analysts argue that the only realistic option for defusing the crisis would be a deal granting North Korea the status of a de-facto nuclear power similar to that of India and Pakistan — without formal recognition, but without attempts to disarm it either.

莫斯科的官方立場是拒絕承認朝鮮的核國家地位，因此支持聯(lián)合國制裁。但大多數(shù)俄羅斯外交政策官員和分析人士指出，解除危機的唯一現(xiàn)實選項是簽署協(xié)議授予朝鮮事實上的核國家地位，與印度和巴基斯坦類似——不正式承認，但也不試圖讓他們解除核武。

“Instead of chasing an impossible and unachievable goal of a non-nuclear North Korea, the U.S. and other interested parties should quietly switch to a less pleasant, but realistically achievable goal: North Korea with small and stable nuclear arsenal,” Andrei Lankov, a Russian professor at Kookmin University in Seoul, wrote in a commentary on the options for resolving the crisis.

韓國國民大學(Kookmin University)的俄羅斯教授安德烈•蘭科夫(Andrei Lankov)在一篇關于朝鮮危機解決選項的評論文章中寫道：“美國和其他相關各方應該悄然轉向不那么令人愉快、但在現(xiàn)實中可行的目標，即擁有小型、穩(wěn)定核武庫的朝鮮，而不是追逐讓朝鮮成為無核國家這個不可能且無法實現(xiàn)的目標。”

“North Korea’s goal is to make everyone accept, even if not officially, that it has nuclear weapons now – just like India, Pakistan and Israel. They want to achieve such a status,” said Mr Sukhinin. “We don’t believe that North Korea threatens us or China, but at the same time it is important for us to ensure that this process doesn’t broaden further, that there is no more proliferation.”

蘇希寧表示：“朝鮮的目標是讓所有人承認(即便不是正式地承認)它現(xiàn)在擁有核武器，就像印度、巴基斯坦和以色列一樣。他們想要獲得這樣的地位。我們認為朝鮮不會威脅到我們或者中國，但同時重要的是，我們要確保這種過程不會進一步擴大，而且也不再有核擴散。”