預測：美聯(lián)儲今年將三次加息

A buoyant stock market and improving US growth have given the Federal Reserve cover to lift interest rates three times this year, including when it meets in less than two weeks, a Financial Times survey of top economists found.

英國《金融時報》對頂級經(jīng)濟學家的一項調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，牛氣十足的股票市場和不斷好轉(zhuǎn)的美國經(jīng)濟增長將使得美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)有理由在今年三次上調(diào)利率，包括在不到兩周后開會期間決定加息。

Roughly three-quarters of the 43 experts surveyed said the Fed would raise rates by 75 basis points this year, a capitulation from months earlier when economists and markets said policymaker projections were too optimistic.

在接受調(diào)查的43名專家中，約有四分之三表示，美聯(lián)儲今年將加息75個基點，這相當于承認他們在幾個月前所作的判斷有誤，當時經(jīng)濟學家和市場都表示，政策制定者們的預測過于樂觀。

Hawkish commentary from those policymakers over the past week, rising inflation expectations, higher sovereign bond yields and record stock market valuations have left nine out of 10 economists predicting the Fed will lift interest rates by a quarter point this month, to a range of 0.75 per cent to 1 per cent.

美聯(lián)儲政策制定者在過去一周發(fā)表的鷹派言論，加上通脹預期不斷上揚，主權(quán)債券收益率上升，以及股市估值達到創(chuàng)紀錄水平，使得10個經(jīng)濟學家中有9個預測美聯(lián)儲將在本月加息0.25個百分點，至0.75%至1%的區(qū)間。

“The Fed, which has been very comfortable maintaining excessively easy monetary policy and lagging behind markets, may quickly be put into a position of becoming uncomfortable in lagging economic and inflation realities,” said Berenberg economist Mickey Levy.

“迄今一直對維持過度寬松的貨幣政策和滯后于市場感到非常舒適的美聯(lián)儲，可能很快陷入對經(jīng)濟和通脹現(xiàn)實滯后感到不舒服的境地，”貝倫貝格(Berenberg)經(jīng)濟學家米基•萊維(Mickey Levy)表示。

The median economist projection is a federal funds rate at 1.375 per cent by the end of 2017, and 2.125 per cent by December 2018. Market measures of trader bets also imply three 25 basis-point rate rises this year.

經(jīng)濟學家們做出的中位數(shù)預測是，2017年底聯(lián)邦基金利率將為1.375%，2018年12月將為2.125%。從市場行情看，交易員們也押注今年三次加息，每次上調(diào)25個基點。

Almost three-quarters of economists polled expect the US central bank to stop or reduce reinvestment of coupons and principle from securities it holds in early to mid-2018.

近四分之三受訪經(jīng)濟學家預期，美國央行將在2018年初到年中停止或減少對其所持證券的本息進行再投資。

Several warn forecasts could be upended if spending, deregulation and tax cuts push faster growth. Two-thirds said they expected “substantive tax reform” by year-end.

多名經(jīng)濟學家警告，如果支出、放松管制和減稅推動經(jīng)濟更快增長，當前預測可能不準。三分之二的受訪者表示，他們預計美國將在今年底之前出臺“實質(zhì)性稅制改革”。

Omair Sharif, of Société Générale, said “all bets are off on where the inflation data goes” if a border adjustment tax is passed. But he noted the Fed was willing to tolerate inflation that eclipses its policy mandate for a short time.

法國興業(yè)銀行(Société Générale)的奧邁•謝里夫(Omair Sharif)表示，如果美國國會通過邊境調(diào)整稅，誰也不知道通脹數(shù)據(jù)將會如何變化。但他指出，短期而言，美聯(lián)儲愿意容忍通脹超出其政策授權(quán)的范圍。

Despite hawkish Fed comments, several economists still believed the central bank would hold fire this month.

盡管美聯(lián)儲官員發(fā)表了鷹派言論，但數(shù)名經(jīng)濟學家仍然相信美國央行本月將維持利率不變。

The FT conducted its survey on March 2 and 3.

英國《金融時報》是在3月2日和3日進行調(diào)查的。