短線觀點：中國試圖控制債市

In China, it isn’t so much what is said but who says it. Few market followers can have been surprised by a warning that China’s rising leverage poses risks. But this one came from Li Keqiang, China’s premier, to the National People’s Congress. The impression left by the Chinese premier was that Beijing’s emphasis is now on controlling risks — deleveraging in other words — as much as growth. China’s fast-evolving bond markets are already reflecting this shift.

在中國，比說了什么更重要的是誰在開口說。沒什么市場觀察人士會對中國不斷上升的杠桿帶來各種風(fēng)險這一警告感到意外。但這一次是中國總理李克強在向全國人大會議講話時發(fā)出的警告。中國總理給人留下的印象是，北京方面現(xiàn)在的重點是增長和控制風(fēng)險(換句話說就是去杠桿)并重。中國快速演變的債券市場已經(jīng)在反映這種轉(zhuǎn)變。

Borrowing costs in China have been rising rapidly, and in some cases faster than US rates. Yields on two-year government bonds have jumped 42 basis points this year, compared with 11bp in the US. And there is almost a full percentage point gap between yields on Chinese 10-year bonds and their US counterparts, which is double the gap three months ago. Largely as a result of higher rates at home, mainland companies have for the first time ever issued more bonds overseas than domestically in the first two months of this year.

近來中國的借款成本在快速上升，在某些情況下比美國的加息步伐更快。兩年期政府債券的收益率今年以來上漲了42個基點，遠高于美國國債的11個基點。中國10年期國債與美國10年期國債的收益率幾乎相差整整一個百分點，是三個月前收益率之差的兩倍。今年頭兩個月首次出現(xiàn)了中國企業(yè)在海外債券發(fā)行量超過國內(nèi)的情況，主要原因就是國內(nèi)利率較高。

The driver for these moves can be found in China’s short-term money markets, where the central bank has been broadening the range of its operations. A year ago the People’s Bank of China fine-tuned its influence by starting daily liquidity operations. Last month it raised short-term repo rates for the first time since 2013 and lifted longer-term money market rates for the first time since their creation in 2014. The net effect is a tightening without resorting to the blunt instrument of raising headline interest rates and risking an economic slowdown. Hence monetary policy can still be described officially as “neutral”.

這些舉動的驅(qū)動力可在中國的短期貨幣市場中找到，在這里，中國央行正在拓寬其操作范圍。一年前，中國人民銀行(PBoC)開始通過每日流動性操作來微調(diào)其影響力。上月，它自2013年以來首次提高短期回購利率，同時提升較長期貨幣市場利率(這是此類利率自2014年創(chuàng)建以來的首次)。這些操作的凈效應(yīng)是收緊流動性，同時無需付諸提升整體利率之類的生硬工具，然后承受經(jīng)濟放緩的風(fēng)險。因此，貨幣政策仍然可以被堂而皇之地形容為“中性”。

Any direct transmission of policy from lifting short-term rates to longer-term ones is not a given in China, where markets are expanding rapidly but not all at the same pace in terms of either size or sophistication. Onshore bond markets grew 32 per cent last year to Rmb64tn ($9.3tn). That is huge by any standards. But the problem for investors is reading that expanded market amid figuring out what the PBoC wants to achieve. For all its increased involvement, it does not target a single rate as its peers do. Amid the guesswork one thing remains clear: with lending reaching a new record in January, Mr Li and the PBoC still have some way to go in their risk-controlling efforts.

在中國，政策從短期利率向較長期利率的任何直接傳遞都不是一件板上釘釘?shù)氖虑?中國的各個市場都在快速擴大，但在規(guī)模或先進程度方面步伐各有不同。在岸債券市場去年增長32%，達到64萬億元人民幣(合9.3萬億美元)。無論按照什么標準，這都是巨大的。但投資者的問題在于，如何在揣摩中國央行想要實現(xiàn)什么目標的大背景下，解讀市場的擴大?因為盡管中國央行加大了參與，但它并不像其它國家的央行那樣，設(shè)定一個單一的目標利率。在所有猜測中，有一件事情仍是清楚的：在1月新增貸款創(chuàng)下新紀錄的情況下，李克強和中國央行在他們的風(fēng)險控制努力方面還有一段路要走。