“俄羅斯黑客門”最新波折的五大看點

We are long past the point where the story ofDonald Trump became stranger and more lurid thana Hollywood movie. Tuesday brought a fresh andastonishing twist: the news that the USintelligence agencies have briefed both thepresident and the president-elect on a series ofdamaging allegations made against Mr Trump. Thedocument containing the allegations has beenpublished, so they are now common knowledge. Hereare five points to bear in mind, when considering thisnews.

唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)的故事比好萊塢電影的情節(jié)更加奇葩、更加聳人聽聞——這一點早已不是新聞。周二出現(xiàn)了一個新鮮和令人驚愕的情節(jié)轉(zhuǎn)折：有報道稱，美國情報機構(gòu)向總統(tǒng)和當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)兩人都通報了一連串不利于特朗普的指控。相關(guān)文件包含的具體指控已經(jīng)發(fā)表，因此它們現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)人盡皆知。以下是消化這條消息時值得記住的五個要點。

1. The two most damaging allegations are that there was illicit communication between theTrump campaign and the Russian government and that the Russians have compromisingmaterial on bizarre sexual behaviour by Mr Trump. These allegations have been circulatingamong many news organisations (including the Financial Times) for weeks. But, until now,nobody had yet published them because they are unproven.

1.其中兩個指控最具破壞性：一是特朗普競選團隊曾與俄羅斯政府進行見不得人的溝通，二是俄方掌握著有關(guān)特朗普古怪性行為的污點材料。這些指控在許多新聞組織(包括英國《金融時報》)中流傳了好幾周。但此前沒有一家媒體發(fā)表，因為它們未經(jīng)證實。

2. These allegations are being taken seriously. Mr Trump has already dismissed the story asfake news and a political witch-hunt. The fact that no reputable news organisation has been ableto corroborate them also damages the credibility of the charges. On the other hand, as anexcellent Lawfare blog observes: “The president and president-elect do not get briefed onmaterial that the intelligence community does not believe to be at least of some credibility.”But it should also be noted that some of the charges already seem to be falling apart. MrTrump’s lawyer, Michael Cohen, who is alleged to have met Russian operatives in Prague, hastweeted that he has never been to Prague in his life.

2.這些指控正得到認真對待。特朗普已經(jīng)完全否認這條消息，稱其為假消息和政治迫害。沒有一家聲譽良好的新聞機構(gòu)能夠證實這些指控，這一事實損害了相關(guān)指控的可信度。另一方面，正如法律網(wǎng)站Lawfare上一篇精辟的博客文章所指出的：“總統(tǒng)和當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)不會得到情報界不相信至少有一些可信度的材料的簡報。”但也應(yīng)該指出，其中一些指控似乎已經(jīng)被證明站不住腳。被指曾在布拉格與俄羅斯特工見面的特朗普的律師邁克爾?科恩(Michael Cohen)在Twitter上寫道，他從來沒有去過布拉格。

 

 

3. The broader context is important. One reason why these allegations are potentially sodamaging is that they fit into a broader narrative. For months, political analysts have beenscratching their heads about why Mr Trump is so pro-Russian. More recently, there has beenspeculation about why the president-elect was so dismissive of allegations of Russian hackingduring the election. The most obvious explanation is simply that Mr Trump resents anythingthat casts doubt on the legitimacy of his election. However, there have also long beentheories that Russian intelligence had some damaging Kompromat (compromising material) onMr Trump.

3.整體背景是重要的。這些指控具有潛在巨大破壞力的一個原因是，它們與一個整體的敘述相符。數(shù)月來，政治分析人士一直對特朗普為何如此親俄羅斯感到匪夷所思。最近，對于當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)為何對有關(guān)選舉期間俄羅斯發(fā)動黑客攻擊的指控如此不屑一顧，有人作出了猜測。最顯而易見的解釋是，特朗普憎惡任何質(zhì)疑他當(dāng)選合法性的說法。然而，長期以來一直有理論認為，俄羅斯情報機構(gòu)掌握著特朗普的污點材料(Kompromat)。

4. The immediate impact is likely to be limited. Some of Mr Trump’s opponents hope thatthese stories are so explosive that they could yet prevent Mr Trump becoming president. Thisis highly unlikely. The inauguration takes place on January 20. Mr Trump hascomprehensively denied the allegations. However, the president-elect’s press conference onWednesday should be quite a spectacle. There is a certain irony to the fact that Mr Trump,who spent many months peddling a false allegation that President Barack Obama was not bornin the US, should now be complaining about “fake news”.

4.直接影響很可能是有限的。特朗普的一些反對者希望這些故事具有如此巨大的爆炸力，以至于它們可以阻止特朗普成為總統(tǒng)。這是極不可能的。就職典禮將于1月20日舉行。特朗普已全面否認了這些指控。然而，當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)周三舉行的記者會相當(dāng)有看頭。有一個事實具有一定諷刺意味：曾經(jīng)花了很多個月來兜售有關(guān)巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)總統(tǒng)不是在美國出生這一虛假指控的特朗普，現(xiàn)在抱怨起“假消息”來。

5. The long-term impact could be damaging. It is possible that, in the coming days, theseallegations will be comprehensively debunked. In that case, they will not hurt Mr Trump. Theycould even help by casting doubt on all the many other allegations that are certain to be hurledat him during his presidency. However, if Congress and the intelligence agencies insist ondigging further into these stories and into the general issue of Russian hacking, the TrumpWhite House will be weakened.

5.長期影響可能是破壞性的。在接下來的幾天里，這些指控有可能得到全面駁斥。在那種情況下，它們不會傷害特朗普。它們甚至可能幫助他，因為它們將使他擔(dān)任總統(tǒng)期間肯定會面對的其它很多指控變得不那么可信。然而，如果國會和情報機構(gòu)堅持進一步追查這些故事，追查俄羅斯對美發(fā)動黑客攻擊的整個問題，特朗普執(zhí)掌的白宮將被削弱。

The worst case would be that Mr Trump is dogged by a long-running investigation. It is worthremembering that the Watergate scandal, which originated in events during an election, tooktwo years before it eventually forced President Nixon’s resignation. The sexual allegationsagainst Mr Trump — although vigorously denied — are also damaging to the new president’sdignity. It is not good to take the oath of office against a background of sniggering.

最糟糕的情況是特朗普被曠日持久的調(diào)查所困擾。值得記住的是，當(dāng)年的水門事件丑聞起源于選舉期間發(fā)生的事情，但在兩年后才最終迫使尼克松總統(tǒng)辭職。針對特朗普的性指控——盡管已被強烈否認——還有損新總統(tǒng)的尊嚴(yán)。在竊笑的人群面前宣誓就職不是件好事。