伊朗前總統(tǒng)拉夫桑賈尼逝世

Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who has died aged 82, was one of the leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran and a shrewd politician whom many Iranians saw as both a blessing and a curse for their country.

伊朗伊斯蘭共和國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人之一阿克巴爾•哈什米•拉夫桑賈尼(Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani)逝世，享年82歲。在許多伊朗人眼中，這位精明的政治人物對(duì)伊朗來(lái)說(shuō)既是一個(gè)福音、也是一個(gè)詛咒。

At home, he was seen as Iran’s saviour at critical times, as when he pushed for a nuclear deal with major powers in 2015 to help prevent a war, yet ruthless at others, such as when he failed to prevent the mass execution of dissidents in the 1980s.

在伊朗國(guó)內(nèi)，他被視為危急時(shí)刻國(guó)家的拯救者，比如他曾推動(dòng)與幾大強(qiáng)國(guó)在2015年達(dá)成一項(xiàng)核協(xié)議，幫助避免了一場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng);在另一些時(shí)刻，他又被視為一個(gè)無(wú)情的人，比如他未能阻止上世紀(jì)80年代對(duì)異見(jiàn)人士的大規(guī)模處決。

Rafsanjani’s death came as a shock to Iranians and is expected by many analysts to have big implications for an Islamic establishment whose first generation is aging and dying. The loss of such a heavyweight may further intensify the power struggle between reformers who argue that pro-democracy changes are essential for the regime’s survival and hardliners who resist opening up the country.

拉夫桑賈尼的逝世是對(duì)伊朗人的一次沖擊。許多分析人士預(yù)計(jì)，他的逝世會(huì)對(duì)伊斯蘭建制派產(chǎn)生巨大影響，這個(gè)陣營(yíng)中的第一代人正逐漸老去、離開(kāi)這個(gè)世界。損失一位如此重量級(jí)的人物，可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步激化改革派與強(qiáng)硬派之間的權(quán)力斗爭(zhēng)。改革派主張，親民主的改革對(duì)政權(quán)的存續(xù)至關(guān)重要，強(qiáng)硬派則反對(duì)伊朗的開(kāi)放。

“This is like a major quake to the political establishment,” said one reform-minded politician. “His death will shake the regime’s balance at a sensitive time.”

一名具有改革意識(shí)的政治人士表示：“這就像政治建制派遭遇了一場(chǎng)大地震。在這個(gè)敏感時(shí)刻，他的逝世將撼動(dòng)政權(quán)的均勢(shì)。”

Rafsanjani was a balancing figure who believed Iran’s political establishment would be at risk if it fell into the extremes offered by hardliners and reformists alike.

拉夫桑賈尼是一位平衡人物，他相信，伊朗若被強(qiáng)硬派倡導(dǎo)的極端路線左右，伊朗的政治建制派會(huì)面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，若被改革派倡導(dǎo)的極端路線左右，后果也大致相同。

Reformers had enjoyed his support in recent years, helping to tilt the balance of power towards more moderate forces who managed to win the presidential poll in 2013 — with the victory of Hassan Rouhani, a centrist — and parliamentary elections last year.

最近幾年，改革派得到了他的支持，力量的天平因此傾向較溫和勢(shì)力一邊，這股勢(shì)力在2013年贏了伊朗總統(tǒng)選舉(中間派人士哈桑•魯哈尼(Hassan Rouhani)當(dāng)選為總統(tǒng))，在去年贏了議會(huì)選舉。

He also kept his traditional connections with the clergy in the holy city of Qom and with conservative forces within the political establishment, which made it difficult for hardliners to form a strong front against moderate forces.

此外，他還保持著與圣城庫(kù)姆(Qom)神職人員以及與政治建制派中保守勢(shì)力的傳統(tǒng)聯(lián)系，這使得強(qiáng)硬派難以組建反溫和派勢(shì)力的強(qiáng)大陣線。

But the most important ramification of his death comes at a time Iran’s politicians are quietly thinking of the eventual succession to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader and ultimate decision maker, who is 77. Although older, many Iranians were assuming that Rafsanjani — who had enjoyed good health — would be alive to help prevent the top leadership falling into the hands of hardliners. Rafsanjani, as a pillar of the revolution in 1979, had tense relations with Mr Khamenei, a key figure in founding the Islamic establishment, over Iran’s political and economic direction.

不過(guò)，拉夫桑賈尼逝世造成的最重大影響，關(guān)乎伊朗最高領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人和最終決策者、77歲的阿亞圖拉阿里•哈梅內(nèi)伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)的接班人問(wèn)題。伊朗政治人士眼下正暗暗思考最終由誰(shuí)來(lái)接哈梅內(nèi)伊的班。盡管拉夫桑賈尼的年齡比哈梅內(nèi)伊大，可許多伊朗人認(rèn)為，身體一直很棒的拉夫桑賈尼會(huì)活到哈梅內(nèi)伊離世之后，幫助避免讓伊朗的最高領(lǐng)導(dǎo)權(quán)落入強(qiáng)硬派之手。拉夫桑賈尼是1979年革命的柱石之一，哈梅內(nèi)伊則是創(chuàng)立伊斯蘭建制派的關(guān)鍵人物之一，兩人在伊朗的政治經(jīng)濟(jì)方向問(wèn)題上關(guān)系緊張。

Rafsanjani advocated pragmatism at home, pushing for an open market economy, and promoted a foreign policy in which the US would no longer be seen as an arch-enemy. Mr Khamenei, however, still rejects any moves towards a normalisation of ties with the US and believes Iran does not need to follow western-style economic development.

拉夫桑賈尼在國(guó)內(nèi)提倡實(shí)用主義，推動(dòng)建設(shè)開(kāi)放的市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)，支持不再將美國(guó)視為頭號(hào)敵人的外交政策。而哈梅內(nèi)伊仍然拒絕任何伊美關(guān)系正常化的舉措，認(rèn)為伊朗無(wú)需遵循西方式的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展道路。