人民幣匯率大漲，中國央行否認干預

HONG KONG — Global markets spent most of 2016 adjusting to the reality of a slow but steady weakening of China’s currency.

香港——全球市場在2016年花了大部分時間來適應中國貨幣緩慢但穩(wěn)步走軟的現(xiàn)實。

Now, it is Beijing that appears uncomfortable with that state of affairs.

現(xiàn)在，北京看來對這種狀況感到不舒服了。

Financial regulators appear to have grown increasingly concerned in recent weeks about the pace of the renminbi’s depreciation and the amount of capital flowing out of the country.

最近幾周，金融監(jiān)管人員似乎越來越關注人民幣貶值的步伐以及中國資金外流的數(shù)額。

On Saturday, they issued stricter rules on individuals moving renminbi offshore in exchange for dollars. On Wednesday, Bloomberg News reported that the authorities were considering ordering state-owned companies to sell their foreign currency and to hold renminbi instead.

上周六，他們發(fā)布了限制個人兌換美元外匯的更嚴格的規(guī)則，以防止人民幣轉移海外。彭博新聞周三報道說，當局正在考慮下令國有企業(yè)出售它們持有的外幣，改持人民幣。

Against a pause in the dollar’s resurgence, the result of those measures has been to temporarily reverse the slide in the Chinese currency’s value.

在美元升值暫停的背景下，這些措施的結果是暫時扭轉了人民幣匯率的下滑。

The effect has been most pronounced in Hong Kong, where a small pool of offshore renminbi trades more freely than in mainland China. After a two-day rally, the offshore renminbi rose as much as 2.5 percent to 6.7853 against the dollar on Thursday, an exceptional gain for a currency that is usually subject to staid trading.

效果在香港最為明顯，那里有一小部分離岸人民幣進行比在中國大陸更自由的交易。在經(jīng)過兩天反彈后的周四，離岸人民幣已升值高達2.5%，匯率上升到6.7853元兌一美元，這對一種通常交易平淡的貨幣來說是罕見的漲幅。

Beijing’s capital controls, and fears that more measures could be on the way, have tightened conditions in a city where the Chinese currency is already in short supply.

北京的資本管制，加上人們對政府可能采取更多措施的擔心，已使人民幣在香港進一步收緊，那里的中國貨幣已經(jīng)供不應求。

“A limited offshore C.N.H. pool and expectations for renminbi depreciation are keeping C.N.H. liquidity tight,” said Frances Cheung, head of rates strategy for Asia outside of Japan at Société Générale, referring to offshore renminbi.

“有限的離岸人民幣資源以及對人民幣貶值的預期，正使得離岸人民幣的流動性緊縮，”法國興業(yè)銀行(Société Générale)亞洲(除日本)利率策略主管張淑嫻(Frances Cheung)說。

Because of the restrictions on capital, borrowing costs for offshore renminbi have been edging up for weeks on the interbank market, where lenders and other major financial institutions seek funding. But by Thursday, that overnight deposit rate briefly rose as high as 100 percent — by comparison, it hovered between 1 percent and 3 percent for most of October and November.

由于資本管制，離岸人民幣的借款成本在銀行間市場上已經(jīng)持續(xù)逐漸上升好幾周了，銀行間市場是放款者及其他主要金融機構尋求資金的地方。但在周四，隔夜存款利率一度短暫升高到100%，相比之下，在去年10月和11月的大部分時間里，這個利率一直在1%和3%之間徘徊。

Some analysts said the sharp swings in offshore exchange rates and borrowing costs appeared to be engineered by the Chinese leadership, as a way to ease depreciation pressure on the renminbi and to discourage short sellers, or investors who bet on declines in the currency, often by using borrowed funds.

一些分析師說，離岸匯率和借貸成本的急劇波動似乎是由中國領導人策劃的，作為一種緩解人民幣貶值壓力和阻止賣空者的方法，賣空者指那些打賭貨幣貶值的投資者，他們通常用借款來下賭注。

“Movements of this speed and magnitude have to be either official intervention or officially directed action by Beijing,” said Christopher Balding, an associate professor of finance at the Peking University HSBC School of Business in Shenzhen, China. “The purpose is to remove renminbi from offshore centers like Hong Kong, which had been continuing to be a factor placing downward pressure on the renminbi.”

“這種速度和規(guī)模的變化一定是官方干預所采取的、或在北京官方指導下的行動，”北京大學匯豐商學院副教授克里斯托弗·鮑爾丁(Christopher Balding)說。“目的是從比如香港這樣的離岸中心撤走人民幣，離岸中心一直是對人民幣施加下行壓力的持續(xù)因素。”

The Chinese central bank, the People’s Bank of China, denied that it was behind recent movements in the offshore currency market.

中國央行中國人民銀行否認操縱了離岸貨幣市場的近期走向。

In an emailed response to questions, the central bank’s press office said claims that it had directly or indirectly intervened in the offshore renminbi market in Hong Kong were “not true.” It declined to elaborate.

央行新聞辦公室在一封回答有關問題的電子信中表示，關于央行直接或間接干預香港離岸人民幣市場的說法“不真實”，但拒絕做出更詳細的解釋。

Some economists noted that the tight conditions in the offshore market were enough to set off the squeeze without the central bank having to intervene directly.

一些經(jīng)濟學家指出，離岸市場緊縮本身已足以讓匯率上升，無需中央銀行的直接干預。

“Liquidity had been tight since September, and the market had widely expect tight liquidity condition to continue,” said Becky Liu, the head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong.

渣打銀行在香港的中國宏觀策略部門負責人劉潔(Becky Liu)說：“自去年9月以來，流動性一直緊張，市場普遍預期流動性緊張的情況將持續(xù)下去。”