中國投機(jī)者推動，比特幣價格堪比黃金

SAN FRANCISCO — The virtual currency Bitcoin has been swept up in yet another speculative frenzy, pushing its price toward the peak it last reached in late 2013.

舊金山——虛擬貨幣比特幣的價格在新的一波投機(jī)狂潮中飆升，沖向了2013年年底達(dá)到的峰值。

The price of Bitcoin has been buoyed by increased interest from places like Venezuela, where the local currency has lost much of its value, and India, where the government recently removed the largest cash notes from circulation.

來自委內(nèi)瑞拉和印度等地的興趣推高了比特幣的價格：委內(nèi)瑞拉的貨幣已經(jīng)失去了大部分價值，而印度最近不再流通最大面額的鈔票。

More broadly, a tilt toward isolationism that has emerged in American and European politics — highlighted by Donald J. Trump’s election victory — has given a new sheen to a currency that can move between countries with little oversight.

從更廣泛的角度看，美國和歐洲政治中出現(xiàn)的孤立主義傾向——唐納德·J·特朗普(Donald J. Trump)的當(dāng)選突顯了這種傾向——給比特幣帶來了新的優(yōu)勢，因為它可以幾乎不受監(jiān)管地在國家之間流動。

“The more there is an expectation for new barriers to be erected, the more there is an expectation that Bitcoin will be valuable for moving money across borders,” said Gil Luria, the director of research at Wedbush Securities.

“人們越是預(yù)期會出現(xiàn)新的障礙，就越會預(yù)期比特幣會對貨幣在國家之間的流通具有價值，”韋德布什證券(Wedbush Securities)的研究主任吉爾·盧里亞(Gil Luria)說。

Still, most of the people actually buying and selling Bitcoin these days are coming from a single country: China.

不過，如今大部分真正買賣比特幣的人來自一個國家：中國。

Some wealthy Chinese have used Bitcoin to evade their government’s strict controls on moving money in and out of the country, according to Bitcoin specialists in China.

中國的比特幣專家們稱，有些富有的中國人用比特幣逃避政府對向境內(nèi)外轉(zhuǎn)移貨幣的嚴(yán)格控制。

But the heavy trading on Chinese Bitcoin exchanges, much of it by automated software, suggests that most of the price movement is a result of bets by speculators.

但是，中國比特幣交易所的大量交易——很多是通過自動軟件進(jìn)行的——表明，大部分價格浮動是投機(jī)者下注的結(jié)果。

In recent days, the price of a Bitcoin has been about 3 percent higher on these exchanges than on dollar denominated exchanges, suggesting more demand in China than outside.

近些天，中國比特幣交易所的比特幣價格比美元交易所的大約高3%，這表明中國的需求大于其他地方。

The importance of speculators suggests that the value of Bitcoin is still driven by the hope of how it might be used someday, rather than real world use today, which has generally been hard to quantify.

投機(jī)者的重要性表明，比特幣的價值依然是由對它未來潛在使用方式的期望所推動的，而不是被當(dāng)下現(xiàn)實世界的使用所推動，后者通常很難量化。

In dollar terms, a Bitcoin was going for about $1,025 on Tuesday, or about 140 percent more than what it cost at the beginning of 2016.

按照美元換算，周二，1比特幣大約能兌換1025美元，比2016初的價格高了約140%。

The volatile price has led many analysts to conclude that is less similar to a currency than to a commodity, like gold, which has a value resulting from its scarcity. In Bitcoin’s case, the rules of the network dictate that only 21 million Bitcoin will ever be created.

它動蕩的價格令很多分析師認(rèn)為，它不太像貨幣，而更像黃金這樣的大宗商品，它的價值源于稀缺性。就比特幣而言，該網(wǎng)絡(luò)的規(guī)則決定了最多只能創(chuàng)造出2100萬比特幣。

The recent rise has brought the price of one Bitcoin to within striking distance of the price of an ounce of gold, which was about $1,150 on Monday.

由于最近的價格上漲，1比特幣的價格已經(jīng)令人震驚地接近1盎司黃金的價格——周一，1盎司黃金大約價值1150美元。

The price has increased in the last year despite the lack of interest in Bitcoin from banks and a majority of more sophisticated investors.

盡管銀行以及大部分更成熟的投資者對比特幣缺乏興趣，但它的價格在過去一年里還是上漲了。

After showing early interest in the currency, most big banks have moved on to make investments in the blockchain, the new type of ledger technology introduced by Bitcoin, while eschewing Bitcoin itself.

在早期對這種貨幣表現(xiàn)出興趣之后，大部分大銀行轉(zhuǎn)而在區(qū)塊鏈上進(jìn)行投資——區(qū)塊鏈?zhǔn)潜忍貛磐瞥龅囊环N新型記賬技術(shù)——但回避比特幣本身。

Some central banks have talked about issuing their own national currencies on some sort of blockchain inspired by but unrelated to the blockchain that Bitcoin uses.

有些中央銀行討論過在某種區(qū)塊鏈上發(fā)行自己的國家貨幣，那種區(qū)塊鏈?zhǔn)且员忍貛潘褂玫膮^(qū)塊鏈為啟發(fā)，但與之無關(guān)。

Bitcoin and the blockchain were introduced in late 2008 by a mysterious coder who used the name Satoshi Nakamoto. Anyone with a computer and internet access can open a Bitcoin wallet and help maintain the blockchain ledger where all Bitcoin transactions are recorded.

比特幣和區(qū)塊鏈?zhǔn)?008年由一位化名為中本聰(Satoshi Nakamoto，音譯)的神秘編碼員推出的。任何一個有電腦和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)接入的人都可以開設(shè)一個比特幣錢包，幫助維護(hù)區(qū)塊鏈賬簿——所有的比特幣交易都記錄在上面。

Because it is run by a decentralized network of computers around the world, Bitcoin does not require a central authority like a central bank or financial institution. That has made it attractive to people who hope to do financial transactions anonymously, such as the drug dealers who have sold illicit goods for Bitcoin on the Silk Road website and its successors.

由于比特幣是由世界各地分散的電腦網(wǎng)絡(luò)運(yùn)作的，所以它不需要中央銀行這樣的中央權(quán)威機(jī)構(gòu)或金融機(jī)構(gòu)。這一點吸引了那些想進(jìn)行匿名金融交易的人，比如在絲路網(wǎng)站(Silk Road)及其后繼者上出售非法商品以獲取比特幣的毒販。

New Bitcoins are released at regular intervals to computers helping to support the Bitcoin network, and previously released Bitcoins can be bought and sold on exchanges around the world.

新比特幣定期向幫助支持比特幣網(wǎng)絡(luò)的電腦發(fā)行，之前發(fā)行的比特幣可以在世界各地的交易所買賣。

Since 2009, the price of Bitcoin has generally been defined by long periods of stability marked by short periods of speculative excitement.

從2009年起，比特幣的價格總體來說表現(xiàn)出長期的穩(wěn)定和短期的投機(jī)興奮。

Many Bitcoin businesses have wanted to edit the basic Bitcoin software to change the number of transactions that can move through the network every day. But the proposed changes have run into opposition from the team of coders responsible for maintaining the basic Bitcoin software. Many Chinese Bitcoin companies have sided with the coders.

很多比特幣企業(yè)想要編輯根本的比特幣軟件，改變該網(wǎng)絡(luò)每天可以處理的交易量。但是，那些提議的改變遭到負(fù)責(zé)維護(hù)根本比特幣軟件的編碼員團(tuán)隊的反對。中國的很多比特幣公司站在那些編碼員一邊。

That disagreement has led to slowdowns on the Bitcoin network, with some transactions taking days to be processed. The slowdowns have made it harder to use Bitcoin for everyday payments.

這種分歧導(dǎo)致比特幣網(wǎng)絡(luò)的運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)速度慢了下來，有些交易要花費(fèi)數(shù)日才能完成。這種減慢導(dǎo)致使用比特幣進(jìn)行日常支付更為困難。

But through the controversy the security of the basic Bitcoin wallets and transaction software has held up, making it a potential alternative for people in countries with less secure currencies and financial institutions.

但是，在爭議持續(xù)期間，根本的比特幣錢包和交易軟件的安全性一直相當(dāng)穩(wěn)固。因此，在那些貨幣和金融機(jī)構(gòu)較不安全的國家，它可以成為潛在的替代選擇。

In November, interest in Bitcoin spiked in India after the government announced moves to quickly ban the largest Indian bank notes, in an effort to crack down on corruption.

去年11月，為打擊腐敗，印度政府宣布將采取行動快速禁用最大面額的印度貨幣，因此，印度人對比特幣的興趣急劇上升。

The continued fall in the value of the Venezuelan currency, the bolívar, has led to reports about Venezuelans desperate to exchange their money for Bitcoin.

有報道稱，委內(nèi)瑞拉貨幣博利瓦的持續(xù)貶值導(dǎo)致委內(nèi)瑞拉人瘋狂地把貨幣兌換成比特幣。

But despite the new demand, the total value of all outstanding Bitcoin, about $16 billion, is still only that of a medium-size American company, and is not large enough to sustain the demand of even a moderate number of Indians or Venezuelans looking to store their wealth in the virtual currency.

盡管出現(xiàn)了這些新需求，但目前發(fā)行的全部比特幣的總價值約為160億美元，僅相當(dāng)于一家美國中型公司的資產(chǎn)，甚至不足以維持期望用這種虛擬貨幣儲存財富的少量印度人或委內(nèi)瑞拉人的需求。

That points back to the importance of speculators, who are betting that someday soon people worldwide will turn to Bitcoin for their daily financial needs, and push the price much higher.

而這一點再次指出投機(jī)者的重要性，他們?yōu)樽约旱呐袛鄩荷腺€注，認(rèn)為在不久的未來，全世界人將使用比特幣滿足日常金融需求，比特幣的價格會被抬高很多。

“I ascribe only 10 percent of the value of Bitcoin to current day usage, and more like 90 percent of it to the expectation of future usage,” Mr. Luria of Webush Securities said.

“我認(rèn)為，只有10%的比特幣是供當(dāng)下使用，超過90%是與對未來使用的期待相關(guān)的，”韋德布什證券的盧里亞說。