Lex專欄：中國應(yīng)繼續(xù)削減鋼材產(chǎn)能

A year ago you could not give steel mills away. Well, almost. Consider Tata Steel, the Indian owner of a number of then lossmaking steel plants in the UK. It decided it wanted out at any price. One reason: the world’s largest producer, China, was increasing steel exports, depressing prices. Fast forward to this year and steel has moved to portfolio managers’ buy lists.

一年前，你想脫手鋼廠都無人接盤。或者說，幾乎是這樣吧。彼時(shí)在英國擁有多家虧損鋼廠的塔塔鋼鐵(Tata Steel)例外。當(dāng)時(shí)，塔塔鋼鐵決定不惜任何代價(jià)讓自己抽身。原因之一是：當(dāng)時(shí)世界上最大鋼材生產(chǎn)國中國在增加鋼材出口，壓低鋼材價(jià)格。把時(shí)間快進(jìn)到今年，鋼材已進(jìn)入投資組合經(jīng)理的購買清單。

Whereas China took the blame before, it gets credit for a steel price boom. Its steelmakers cut output, though only by necessity. Chinese mills in the fourth quarter of last year lost money on every tonne of commodity steel produced. Hot rolled coil lost the average plant Rmb200 ($29) a tonne. Mills stopped making steel. Roughly twice as much blast furnace capacity (150m tonnes) underwent maintenance during the first quarter of 2016 compared with 2015, notes Credit Suisse, thereby reducing supply.

雖然之前鋼價(jià)走低被怪到中國頭上，但此輪鋼價(jià)上漲中國卻是功臣。中國鋼鐵企業(yè)削減了產(chǎn)能——雖然只是迫不得已。去年第四季度，中國鋼廠每生產(chǎn)一噸鋼材都要賠錢。熱軋卷板平均每噸讓鋼廠虧損200元人民幣(合29美元)。許多鋼廠停止產(chǎn)鋼。瑞信(Credit Suisse)指出，2016年第一季度，處于停產(chǎn)維護(hù)狀態(tài)的高爐產(chǎn)能(1.5億噸)約為2015年的兩倍，因而導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)減少。

Meanwhile, demand had improved. During late 2015, Beijing opened its wallet for new, steel-hungry infrastructure projects to boost the flagging economy. In renminbi terms this spending had dipped year on year in the first half of 2015, according to CEIC data. By the beginning of 2016 a surge in infrastructure spend had begun, up as much as 40 per cent from the previous year. More demand with reduced capacity lifted local prices; exports slowed. Dull metal suddenly shone, as profit per tonne jumped to Rmb1,000. Chinese steelmaker Maanshan’s shares are up by roughly half this year. In Europe, shares in Amsterdam-listed producer ArcelorMittal have doubled.

與此同時(shí)，需求出現(xiàn)了改善。2015年底，中國政府開始向需要鋼材的新基建項(xiàng)目放開資金，以提振增速下滑的經(jīng)濟(jì)。司爾亞司(CEIC)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，以人民幣計(jì)算，2015年上半年的基建投入同比出現(xiàn)了下滑。到2016年初，基建投入已開始激增，較上年增加高達(dá)40%。產(chǎn)能減少、需求增加，導(dǎo)致本地價(jià)格上漲;出口放緩。麻雀突然變鳳凰，每噸鋼材的利潤(rùn)飆升至1000元人民幣。中國鋼鐵制造商馬鞍山鋼鐵(Maanshan Iron and Steel)的股價(jià)今年漲了約50%。在歐洲，阿姆斯特丹上市的鋼鐵制造商安賽樂米塔爾(ArcelorMittal)的股價(jià)已經(jīng)翻倍。

Supply will make the big difference in 2017, less so demand. As public spending slows, private construction — from housing — is not likely to take up the slack. Beijing wants to cool an overheated housing market. The World Steel Association forecasts Chinese demand will fall 2 per cent. For China’s gift on steel to keep giving, Beijing needs to ensure that steel capacity keeps falling in the new year as well.

2017年，提振價(jià)格將要靠供應(yīng)、而非需求。隨著公共支出放緩，私營(yíng)部門的房地產(chǎn)建設(shè)不大可能填補(bǔ)這一空缺。中國政府希望給過熱的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)降溫。世界鋼鐵協(xié)會(huì)(World Steel Association)預(yù)測(cè)，中國的鋼材需求將下降2%。要維持中國提振起來的鋼材價(jià)格，中國政府還需確保在新的一年繼續(xù)削減鋼材產(chǎn)能。