柏林襲擊：同情的代價(jià)？

A quote typical of Chancellor Angela Merkel, a physicist by education and politician by profession, goes like this: “Don’t forget about the huge difference between expecting something and experiencing it.”

曾受訓(xùn)成為物理學(xué)家、后來投身政壇的德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)常說的一句話是：“不要忘記預(yù)期將要發(fā)生什么事情與真正經(jīng)歷這件事情之間的巨大差異。”

For years Germany’s security services have warned about the imminent threat of a terrorist attack. They warned specifically about the danger of attacks on “soft” targets such as Christmas markets. So Germans were vaguely expecting a blow. On Monday evening, right in the centre of Berlin, they experienced it.

多年來，德國的安保部門一直警告，德國面臨迫在眉睫的恐怖主義襲擊威脅。他們特別警告，圣誕集市等“軟”目標(biāo)有遭受襲擊的危險(xiǎn)。因此，德國人一直隱約預(yù)期會(huì)遭受一次打擊。周一晚上，在柏林市中心，他們真正經(jīng)歷到了。

How will this affect them? What will this do to Ms Merkel, to the nation’s political landscape and to the cohesion of our society?

這會(huì)如何影響德國人?這會(huì)如何影響默克爾、影響德國的政治格局和我們社會(huì)的凝聚力?

Politically, the killing of 12 people in an attack that left dozens severely injured is a disaster for the government but it is even more so for Ms Merkel personally. She is held responsible for whatever goes wrong in the handling of the refugee crisis. Her actions are polarising the country and society in a way we have not seen in decades.

在政治上，一次導(dǎo)致12人喪生、數(shù)十人嚴(yán)重受傷的襲擊對(duì)德國政府而言是一場災(zāi)難，但對(duì)默克爾個(gè)人而言更是如此。在難民危機(jī)的處理上無論出了什么問題，人們都會(huì)認(rèn)為應(yīng)由默克爾負(fù)責(zé)。她的行動(dòng)以一種我們數(shù)十年未曾見過的方式讓這個(gè)國家和社會(huì)兩極分化。

Knowing this all too well, Marcus Pretzell, an MEP and one of the leading figures of the far-right xenophobic Alternative for Germany (AfD), did not bother to wait longer than an hour after the attack before announcing on Twitter: “These are Merkel’s dead!”

深知這一切的歐洲議會(huì)議員(MEP)、極右翼仇外政黨德國新選擇黨(AfD)的領(lǐng)軍人物之一馬庫斯•普雷策爾(Marcus Pretzell)在襲擊發(fā)生剛剛一個(gè)小時(shí)的時(shí)候，就在Twitter上宣布：“這些人都是默克爾害死的!”

He caused immediate outrage across social media — not least because until late Tuesday it was not even clear whether the killer was a refugee at all — yet true AfD believers will praise Mr Pretzell for speaking out.

他的話立刻在社交媒體平臺(tái)上引起了憤慨之情——尤其是因?yàn)?，直到周二晚些時(shí)候，人們甚至還不清楚殺手是否是難民——然而，新選擇黨的真正信徒們會(huì)贊揚(yáng)普雷策爾的直言不諱。

If the AfD party as a whole sticks to the same line then, yes, it might deter quite a number of decent middle-class voters.

如果新選擇黨作為一個(gè)整體都堅(jiān)持這一立場，可能讓相當(dāng)多的體面的中產(chǎn)階級(jí)選民望而卻步。

On the other hand, it will strengthen the xenophobic, anti-Merkel core of that party, which will probably be big enough to carry the party over the 5 per cent threshold required for entry into the Bundestag in the federal election next autumn. As well as introducing a far-right voice to the national parliament for the first time, that would complicate the business of crafting a work-able governing coalition.

另一方面，這會(huì)壯大該黨內(nèi)仇外、反默克爾的核心，很可能足以讓該黨超過5%的得票率門檻，在明年秋天聯(lián)邦選舉時(shí)得以進(jìn)入德國聯(lián)邦議院(Bundestag)。除了首次讓極右翼的聲音進(jìn)入國會(huì)以外，這還會(huì)讓組建一個(gè)可運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)的執(zhí)政聯(lián)盟變得更加困難。

Public confidence in the chancellor was first shattered when authorities largely lost control of the influx of refugees in the summer of 2015. Ever since, there has been a clear correlation between her personal ratings and voters’ fear of terrorist attacks.

2015年夏天，當(dāng)局基本對(duì)難民流入失去控制，這令德國民眾對(duì)默克爾的信心首次破滅。此后，默克爾個(gè)人的民意支持率一直與選民對(duì)恐怖主義襲擊的擔(dān)憂明顯相關(guān)。

Moreover, Ms Merkel’s campaign for the 2017 election is set to focus on two words aimed at providing comfort in times of turmoil: “security” and “no experiments”.

此外，默克爾為2017年德國大選準(zhǔn)備的競選綱領(lǐng)，將著重于兩個(gè)旨在于動(dòng)蕩時(shí)期提供一些慰藉的詞：“安全”和“不做實(shí)驗(yàn)”。

This slogan was deployed successfully by her Christian Democrat (CDU) party during the cold war. As of today, both will be severely undermined by the Berlin attack — with no alternative at hand, either in terms of a viable candidate or in terms of strategy. The CDU knows this very well. But even her fiercest critics within the party will not dare to revolt. With no viable way out, they have no choice but to suffer in silence.

在冷戰(zhàn)期間，默克爾所在的基督教民主聯(lián)盟(CDU)曾成功地運(yùn)用了這一口號(hào)。今天，這條口號(hào)和基民盟都將因此次的柏林襲擊遭受重創(chuàng)，而基民盟手中沒有備用選擇——無論是有勝選實(shí)力的備用候選人，還是備用策略。基民盟深知這一點(diǎn)。但即使是默克爾在基民盟黨內(nèi)最嚴(yán)厲的批評(píng)者，也不敢反叛。沒有可行的出路，他們別無選擇，只能沉默忍受。

So all the chancellor can hope for is that mainstream Germans will do as they normally would: rally behind which ever government they have and remain as calm as they did, for instance, when they were struck in 2009 by the harshest economic downturn since the second world war.

因此，默克爾只能希望，主流德國人的表現(xiàn)能夠像往常一樣：支持正在臺(tái)上的任何政府，像過去歷次遭遇危機(jī)時(shí)(比如在2009年遭受自二戰(zhàn)以來最嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí))一樣保持平靜。

There is one simple thing that determines what happens next for Germany and the chancellor: rationality. Will Germans muster enough of that to see that terrorist attacks will occur no matter how many refugees a country has taken in?

決定德國和德國總理將會(huì)遭遇何種命運(yùn)的是一件簡單的事：理性。德國人還能有足夠的理性，想明白無論一個(gè)國家接收的難民是多是少，恐怖主義襲擊都是會(huì)發(fā)生的嗎?

Will they turn their backs on xenophobic anti-Muslim rhetoric, even though almost every recent attack in Europe has been launched by Muslim terrorists? And, ultimately, will a majority of Germans bravely accept the notion that nothing in the world, including compassion towards strangers, comes for free.

他們是否將拒絕仇外主義的反穆斯林論調(diào)——即便歐洲近來發(fā)生的幾乎每一起襲擊都是穆斯林恐怖主義者所為?還有最后一條：大多數(shù)德國人是否能夠勇敢地接受這一觀念，即在這個(gè)世界上，沒有任何東西是免費(fèi)的，包括對(duì)陌生人的同情。

No doubt Ms Merkel will give way to calls for tougher law and order policies. She will push for faster processing of asylum seekers and for more extraditions of those who are not acknowledged as refugees. She will also allow her party to campaign on symbolic gestures such as banning burkas from the streets and other public places. This might help to calm parts of her own party. But she knows very well that it will not turn the tide if there are further attacks like the one in Berlin.

毫無疑問，默克爾將向那些要求實(shí)施更嚴(yán)格的法律和秩序政策的呼聲讓步。她將推動(dòng)加快對(duì)尋求庇護(hù)者的處理過程，并遣送更多未被承認(rèn)為難民的人。她還將允許她所在的黨在一些象征性姿態(tài)方面造勢，比如禁止在街道和其他公共場所穿著“burka”罩袍。這可能有助于讓她所在的黨內(nèi)的一部分人冷靜下來。但她深知，如果柏林襲擊這樣的事件再度發(fā)生，這些舉動(dòng)將無力扭轉(zhuǎn)局勢。

At any rate, Ms Merkel will not quit her post. She will stay in her job because she perceives stepping down as desertion. But any sort of guarantee against terrorist attacks is far beyond her reach.

無論如何，默克爾不會(huì)辭職。她將繼續(xù)留在任上，因?yàn)樗J(rèn)為，下臺(tái)就是逃跑。但對(duì)恐怖主義襲擊做出任何形式的擔(dān)保，都遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過她的能力。

It may yet turn out that the terrorist assault on Christmastime Berlin is the price of the German display of generosity so widely praised 18 months ago. To live with that frustrating idea will prove a test of Germany’s stiff upper lip — and the key to Ms Merkel’s political future.

事實(shí)最終仍可能證明，對(duì)德國圣誕集市的恐怖襲擊，是德國人展現(xiàn)慷慨的代價(jià)，這種慷慨在18個(gè)月前曾受到世人如此普遍的稱贊。接受這種令人沮喪的想法將被證明是對(duì)德國人沉著性格的考驗(yàn)——以及默克爾政治前途的關(guān)鍵。