默克爾是西方衣缽的繼承人

Angela Merkel is Europe’s last leader standing. The German chancellor will soon announce she will be seeking a fourth term in next year’s election. Not so long ago it seemed that she might be unseated by the migrant crisis as Germany’s anti-immigrant populists — Alternative for Germany — took to the streets. Now, with a Trumpian storm rolling across the Atlantic, Germany, and Europe, seem unimaginable without her.

安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)是歐洲最后一位還站著的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。這位德國總理已宣布，她會(huì)尋求在明年選舉中獲得第四個(gè)總理任期。而不久之前，德國反移民的民粹主義者——德國新選擇黨(Alternative for Germany)——走上街頭時(shí)，她似乎可能因?yàn)橐泼裎C(jī)下臺(tái)。如今，隨著一場特朗普風(fēng)暴席卷大西洋對(duì)岸，沒有默克爾的德國和歐洲似乎是不可想象的。

Ms Merkel’s carefully conditional reaction to Donald Trump’s victory voiced what most European leaders think but are too fearful to say about the US president-elect. Her words bear repetition. “Germany and the US are tied by values. Democracy, freedom, respect for the rule of law and the dignity of humankind — independent of origin, skin colour, gender, sexual orientation or political views.” Berlin would work closely with the new administration, she said, “on the basis of those values”.

默克爾對(duì)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)獲勝的有條件的謹(jǐn)慎反應(yīng)，道出了大多數(shù)歐洲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人心里所想、但不敢說出的對(duì)這位當(dāng)選美國總統(tǒng)的看法。她的話值得重復(fù)。“德國和美國是通過價(jià)值觀捆綁在一起的。民主、自由、尊重法治和人類尊嚴(yán)——無論出身、膚色、性別、性取向或政治觀點(diǎn)如何。”她說，柏林方面將“在這些價(jià)值觀的基礎(chǔ)上”與美國新政府密切合作。

Visiting the German capital this week, I caught the mix of pain and resolve conveyed by the chancellor. Pain because Germany sees itself as the guardian of the postwar international order so disdained by Mr Trump. It has not forgotten what came before. And Ms Merkel, born in the then communist east, knows all about freedom. Resolve because this Germany and this chancellor will not pay fealty to the president if his agenda is written by white supremacists.

上周到訪德國首都時(shí)，我感受到了這位總理傳達(dá)出的一種混雜著悲傷與堅(jiān)決的情緒。悲傷，是因?yàn)榈聡炎约阂暈樵馓乩势彰镆暤膽?zhàn)后國際秩序的守衛(wèi)者。德國沒有忘記歷史。而出生在當(dāng)時(shí)共產(chǎn)主義東德的默克爾，理解有關(guān)自由的一切。堅(jiān)決，是因?yàn)槿绻乩势盏淖h程是被白人至上主義者寫就的話，現(xiàn)在的德國和這位總理將不會(huì)支持他。

It was left to Boris Johnson, Britain’s inestimably silly foreign secretary, to offer a counter view. Mr Trump is an opportunity, he boomed. The president-elect has promised to dissolve the transatlantic security relationship, strike a dirty deal with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and derail the global trading system. Yet, even as the geopolitical plates crash and grind, Mr Johnson declares all to be well: Mr Trump might favour Britain with a post-Brexit trade deal.

輪到極其幼稚的英國外交大臣鮑里斯•約翰遜(Boris Johnson)發(fā)表相反觀點(diǎn)了。特朗普提供了一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)，他大聲說。這位當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)承諾要解除跨大西洋安全關(guān)系，與俄羅斯的弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)達(dá)成骯臟的協(xié)議，還要推翻全球貿(mào)易體系。然而，就在地緣政治板塊發(fā)生碰撞和擠壓時(shí)，約翰遜宣告一切都很好：特朗普或許會(huì)偏向英國，在英國脫歐之后跟英國簽訂一份貿(mào)易協(xié)議。

The less palatable strategic reality is that, as a European power with widely scattered global interests, Britain relies more than most on a rules-based order to underwrite its prosperity and keep the peace. Mr Trump says he has had enough of this “globalism”, and will replace it with “Americanism”. This at the moment Britain is marginalising itself in Europe.

不太容易讓人接受的戰(zhàn)略現(xiàn)實(shí)是，作為一個(gè)在全球具有廣泛、分散的利益的歐洲強(qiáng)國，英國比大多數(shù)國家更依賴一個(gè)基于規(guī)則的秩序，來保障自己的繁榮與和平。特朗普表示，他已受夠了這種“全球主義”，將用“美國主義”取而代之。而此刻英國正在歐洲把自己邊緣化。

It was scarcely surprising then that Barack Obama chose Berlin for his farewell meeting with European leaders this week. Ms Merkel, the US president says, has been his “closest international partner”. François Hollande is also saying his goodbyes. So, too, Matteo Renzi and Theresa May. But these three are making up the numbers. The French president will soon be gone, the Italian prime minister faces his own populist revolt and the British premier has time for nothing besides the convulsions promised by Brexit.

難怪巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)上周把與歐洲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的告別會(huì)地點(diǎn)選在了柏林。這位美國總統(tǒng)表示，默克爾一直是他的“最親密的國際合作伙伴”。弗朗索瓦•奧朗德(François Hollande)也在向奧巴馬道別。馬泰奧•倫齊(Matteo Renzi)和特里薩•梅(Theresa May)也一樣。但這三人是湊數(shù)的。法國總統(tǒng)不久后將卸任，意大利總理面臨著本國的民粹主義反叛，英國首相沒有時(shí)間處理除英國脫歐必定帶來的震動(dòng)之外的任何事情。

Publicly, Mr Obama has sought to offer reassurance. His successor will not abandon the Atlantic alliance, geopolitical realities will impose themselves, the US is unlikely to surrender leadership. So the story goes. Mr Trump’s disdain for Nato and his admiration for Mr Putin, however, have roots deeper than the election campaign. Ms Merkel — I watched her speaking to the German employers’ federation — is comfortable talking about the values that sustain our civilisation. Mr Trump does deals.

在公開場合，奧巴馬一直尋求讓大家放心。他的繼任者將不會(huì)放棄大西洋同盟，地緣政治現(xiàn)實(shí)將自動(dòng)施加影響，美國不太可能交出領(lǐng)導(dǎo)權(quán)。報(bào)道如是說。然而，特朗普對(duì)北約(Nato)的蔑視和對(duì)普京的欽佩，發(fā)端于總統(tǒng)競選之前。默克爾——我見證了她對(duì)德國雇主協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)表講話——坦然地談?wù)撝挝覀兊奈拿鞯哪切﹥r(jià)值觀。而特朗普是做交易的。

The potential transatlantic collisions speak for themselves. The EU is preparing to renew the sanctions imposed on Mr Putin after Russia’s annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine. Some members of the Union have never been comfortable with the commercial costs of the sanctions. Hungary’s authoritarian prime minister, Viktor Orban, prefers to pay homage to Mr Putin. But Ms Merkel has marshalled the 28 behind a common position. To do otherwise would be to concede that, once again, Europe’s borders can be changed by force.

潛在的跨大西洋沖突是不言而喻的。在俄羅斯吞并克里米亞、入侵烏克蘭東部之后，歐盟(EU)正準(zhǔn)備對(duì)普京采取新的制裁。有些歐盟成員國一直對(duì)制裁的商業(yè)成本感到不舒服。匈牙利的威權(quán)總理歐爾班•維克托(Viktor Orban)更愿意向普京表示敬意。但默克爾統(tǒng)領(lǐng)歐盟28個(gè)成員國達(dá)成了一個(gè)共同立場。如若不然將意味著承認(rèn)，歐洲的邊界可以再度靠武力更改。

A deal between Messrs Trump and Putin to accept Moscow’s revanchism would at once overturn the security settlement that has prevailed since 1945 and point to a future in which Europe is divided again between competing spheres of influence. Mr Putin probably does not want to seize the Baltics, Georgia or Belarus. He does want to make sure that Russia’s neighbours act only with its permission. Where, in the long term, does this leave Poland, a nation that under its present, reactionary, leadership asks its western partners to underwrite its security even as it repudiates their democratic values?

如果特朗普與普京達(dá)成一項(xiàng)接受俄羅斯復(fù)仇行動(dòng)的協(xié)議，將立即推翻自1945年以來占統(tǒng)治地位的安全安排，并指向一種歐洲在爭奪勢力范圍中再次四分五裂的未來。普京很可能不想奪取波羅的海諸國、格魯吉亞或者白俄羅斯。但他的確想要保證，俄羅斯的鄰國僅在它的許可范圍內(nèi)采取行動(dòng)。從長期看，這會(huì)將在當(dāng)前極端保守領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的治理下，一邊否定西方伙伴國的民主價(jià)值觀、一邊要求它們?yōu)樽约旱陌踩硶牟ㄌm引向何方?

Mr Trump will not get everything his own way. He has promised to tear up the UN agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear programme — a plan that would give hardliners in Tehran the go-ahead to resume efforts to secure a bomb. The president-elect should not expect European governments to follow suit if the US seeks to restore the sanctions regime. Nuclear non-proliferation matters to Europeans. Mr Trump is on record as saying he would be unfussed if Japan or South Korea decided to build their own bombs.

特朗普將不會(huì)每件事都如自己的心愿。他承諾撕毀限制伊朗核計(jì)劃的聯(lián)合國協(xié)議——該計(jì)劃將放任伊朗國內(nèi)的強(qiáng)硬派繼續(xù)研發(fā)核彈。如果美國尋求恢復(fù)對(duì)伊朗制裁的話，這位當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)不應(yīng)指望歐洲各國政府跟隨。核不擴(kuò)散對(duì)歐洲國家很重要。而特朗普說過，如果日韓決定建造自己的核武器，他也不會(huì)感到擔(dān)憂，這是有據(jù)可查的。

Europe is in a wait-and-see mode. How many of the campaign pledges will carry through into government? The choice looks to be one between a bad outcome and a very bad one. Europeans have struggled for some time to uphold their values against authoritarians without and populists within. The danger now comes from across the Atlantic. It falls to Ms Merkel to speak for what during the past seven decades we have known as the west.

歐洲目前正處于觀望之中。特朗普在競選時(shí)做出的承諾，有多少個(gè)將變成政府政策?這似乎是在一個(gè)壞結(jié)果和一個(gè)更壞的結(jié)果之間的選擇。一段時(shí)間以來，歐洲國家一直在努力對(duì)抗國外的威權(quán)者和國內(nèi)的民粹主義者，堅(jiān)持自己的價(jià)值觀。如今，危險(xiǎn)來自大西洋對(duì)岸。默克爾有責(zé)任代表過去70年里我們所知道的那個(gè)西方發(fā)言。