馬來(lái)西亞總理會(huì)否成為杜特爾特第二？

Malaysia’s prime minister will explore deeper defence and economic co-operation with China on a state visit this week, at a time when concern is deepening in the west over Beijing’s attempts to dislodge Asian countries from Washington’s orbit.

馬來(lái)西亞總理將在本周對(duì)中國(guó)進(jìn)行國(guó)事訪問期間探索同中國(guó)發(fā)展更深層次的國(guó)防和經(jīng)濟(jì)合作。目前西方日益擔(dān)憂北京方面試圖使亞洲國(guó)家脫離華盛頓軌道。

Najib Razak’s trip to China follows a thaw in diplomatic relations between China and the Philippines, with President Rodrigo Duterte declaring his country’s “separation” from the US on a visit to Beijing last month.

納吉布•拉扎克(Najib Razak)訪問中國(guó)之前，中國(guó)和菲律賓之間的外交關(guān)系解凍，羅德里戈•杜特爾特(Rodrigo Duterte)總統(tǒng)在上月訪問北京期間宣告他的國(guó)家與美國(guó)“分離”。

Among Malaysia’s aims is the negotiation of a deal to purchase coastal patrol ships from China in what would be the first significant defence equipment contract between the two countries. If confirmed, the deal is likely to ruffle feathers among the US and its allies.

馬來(lái)西亞方面的目標(biāo)包括談判達(dá)成從中國(guó)采購(gòu)近海巡邏艇的協(xié)議，這將是兩國(guó)之間的第一份重大防務(wù)裝備合同。如果得到證實(shí)，這筆交易很可能引發(fā)美國(guó)及其盟國(guó)不快。

“This is in direct competition with US and Japanese attempts to sell this kind of defence technology,” said Alex Neill, an Asia-Pacific security fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in Singapore.

“這與美國(guó)和日本銷售這種防務(wù)技術(shù)的嘗試構(gòu)成直接競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，”新加坡國(guó)際戰(zhàn)略研究所(International Institute for Strategic Studies)亞太安全問題研究員亞歷克斯•尼爾(Alex Neill)表示。

Although Malaysia is one of several claimants to disputed reefs and islands in the South China Sea, its response to China’s expansive claims over the area has generally been to avoid confrontation. Malaysian ministers have occasionally bristled over China’s claims, but Mr Najib has emphasised moderation.

雖然馬來(lái)西亞是南中國(guó)海爭(zhēng)議島礁和島嶼的幾個(gè)聲索國(guó)之一，但該國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)在該地區(qū)擴(kuò)張性主權(quán)主張的回應(yīng)總體上是回避對(duì)抗。馬來(lái)西亞的部長(zhǎng)級(jí)官員偶爾會(huì)抨擊中國(guó)的主張，但納吉布本人一直強(qiáng)調(diào)克制。

Military relations between Beijing and Kuala Lumpur have grown warmer recently, with the first joint military exercise conducted last year in the Strait of Malacca.

北京和吉隆坡之間的軍事關(guān)系近期升溫，去年兩國(guó)在馬六甲海峽進(jìn)行了第一次聯(lián)合軍事演習(xí)。

Malaysia’s defence minister Hishammuddin Hussein, who is accompanying Mr Najib to China, announced the purchase of Chinese naval patrol craft in a Facebook post that was later removed.

陪同納吉布訪華的馬來(lái)西亞國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)希沙姆丁•侯賽因(Hishammuddin Hussein)，曾在Facebook上宣布采購(gòu)中國(guó)海軍巡邏艇，但這個(gè)帖子隨后被刪除。

Analysts are speaking about a “Duterte effect” across Asia as Beijing seeks to pry countries away from Washington and coax them into its orbit, using its economic weight in the region as leverage.

分析人士正在談?wù)撓韥喼薜?ldquo;杜特爾特效應(yīng)”，即北京方面試圖把一個(gè)又一個(gè)國(guó)家撬離華盛頓的盟友圈子，并把中國(guó)在該地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)份量用作杠桿，推動(dòng)這些國(guó)家進(jìn)入中國(guó)的軌道。

“Now Malaysia seems like a wobbly domino,” said Euan Graham, director of the Lowy Institute in Sydney. “It lends itself to a pessimistic reading that there is a broader accommodation with China across Southeast Asia.”

“現(xiàn)在馬來(lái)西亞看上去像是一塊搖搖欲墜的多米諾骨牌，”悉尼洛伊國(guó)際政策研究所(Lowy Institute for International Policy)主任尤安•格雷厄姆(Euan Graham)表示。“這意味著令人悲觀的解讀是，東南亞國(guó)家在普遍遷就中國(guó)。”

Malaysia and China have overlapping claims in the South China Sea, but they have rarely come into conflict because Malaysia’s claims lie far in the south, away from China’s recent efforts to build islands out of rocks and coral reefs further north.

馬來(lái)西亞和中國(guó)在南中國(guó)海的主權(quán)聲索范圍有重疊部分，但兩國(guó)很少發(fā)生沖突，因?yàn)轳R來(lái)西亞聲索的部分在南中國(guó)海的最南端，與中國(guó)近期建造人工島的島礁和珊瑚礁所在的北部相距較遠(yuǎn)。

However, Malaysia’s coast guard in March announced that about 100 Chinese fishing vessels had been detected encroaching in Malaysia’s waters in the disputed sea, a signal that China is likely to press its maritime claims.

然而，馬來(lái)西亞海事執(zhí)法局曾在今年3月宣布，約有100艘中國(guó)漁船被發(fā)現(xiàn)侵入爭(zhēng)議海域的馬來(lái)西亞水域，這個(gè)信號(hào)表明中國(guó)有可能重提其海事主張。

Neighbouring Singapore and Vietnam have both moved to strengthen defence ties with the US, with Singapore allowing the deployment of Poseidon spy planes and exploring training opportunities for its armed forces on the US Pacific territory of Guam.

鄰近的新加坡和越南都加強(qiáng)了與美國(guó)的防務(wù)關(guān)系，新加坡允許美國(guó)部署“海神”(Poseidon)反潛巡邏機(jī)，并探索讓新加坡軍隊(duì)在關(guān)島(美國(guó)太平洋屬地)進(jìn)行培訓(xùn)的可能性。

Mr Duterte, in contrast, signed $13.5bn of deals and investments on a trip to China this month during which he announced “springtime” in relations between Beijing and Manila.

相比之下，杜特爾特在上月訪華期間簽署了135億美元的協(xié)議和投資，其間他還宣告北京和馬尼拉之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)入“春天”。

Mustafa Izzuddin, fellow at the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said Malaysia was pursuing a “balanced” approach to China that combined protecting its interests in the South China Sea with strengthening economic relations.

新加坡尤索夫伊薩東南亞研究院(ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute)研究員穆斯塔法•伊茲丁(Mustafa Izzuddin)表示，馬來(lái)西亞正尋求對(duì)中國(guó)采取一種“平衡”姿態(tài)，在加強(qiáng)經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系的同時(shí)保護(hù)其在南中國(guó)海的利益。

China is Malaysia’s biggest trading partner, while tourism from China has rebounded after a fall in the wake of the disappearance of the Beijing-bound Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 in 2014.

中國(guó)是馬來(lái)西亞最大的貿(mào)易伙伴，而中國(guó)赴馬來(lái)西亞旅游的人數(shù)在2014年飛往北京的馬航MH370航班失蹤后一度下降，但現(xiàn)已反彈。

At home, Mr Najib has been buffeted by claims that billions of dollars were looted from state investment fund 1MDB. The scandal has strained relations between Malaysia and the US, where federal prosecutors have moved to seize assets allegedly bought with misappropriated cash.

納吉布在國(guó)內(nèi)飽受非議，他被指從國(guó)家投資基金1MDB侵吞了巨額美元的資金。這一丑聞使馬來(lái)西亞和美國(guó)之間的關(guān)系變得緊張，美國(guó)聯(lián)邦檢察官已采取行動(dòng)，扣押據(jù)稱用貪污資金購(gòu)買的資產(chǎn)。

Mr Neill said: “If Najib finds himself in the crosshairs [of a US investigation], his natural inclination might be to lean towards China.”

新加坡國(guó)際戰(zhàn)略研究所的尼爾表示：“如果納吉布發(fā)現(xiàn)自己成了美國(guó)的調(diào)查對(duì)象，倒向中國(guó)可能是他的自然傾向。”