人民幣加入SDR后或再度走低

A new era of international acceptance of the renminbi will begin when onshore trading of the currency resumes on Monday after a nine-day break when offshore rates neared six-year lows.

人民幣獲得國(guó)際接受的新時(shí)代即將開始。這種貨幣的在岸交易將在周一恢復(fù)，在此前長(zhǎng)達(dá)9天的休市期間，離岸人民幣匯率接近六年低點(diǎn)。

Last week’s weakness has pushed the gap between the two rates to a three-month high — something Beijing has been trying to minimise as it seeks to curb capital outflow pressures. A sharply weaker offshore rate sends a signal that international investors are betting on currency weakness and risks triggering renewed capital flight.

上周的疲軟將在岸和離岸匯率之差擴(kuò)大至三個(gè)月來最高水平，而北京方面在尋求減少資本流出壓力之際一直在試圖盡量縮小這種匯率差異。大幅走低的離岸匯率發(fā)出了一個(gè)信號(hào)，表明國(guó)際投資者押注人民幣疲軟，這有可能觸發(fā)新的資本外流。

Speculation of renewed weakness has grown since China was officially included as a reserve currency alongside the dollar, euro, sterling and the yen by the International Monetary Fund on October 1. Beijing had been keen to limit swings in its currency leading up to that point, but strategists have suggested it could tolerate further weakness now it has succeeded.

自人民幣在10月1日正式加入美元、歐元、英鎊和日元的行列，被國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)納入儲(chǔ)備貨幣籃子后，對(duì)人民幣再度疲軟的猜測(cè)再度升溫。此前北京方面積極限制人民幣匯率波動(dòng)，但策略師們提出，既然人民幣已經(jīng)“入籃”，北京方面可能會(huì)容忍進(jìn)一步的弱勢(shì)。

Reserves data imply the People’s Bank of China spent about $27bn last month in supporting the renminbi, according to analysts, as its total foreign exchange holdings dropped $18bn — more than expected — to $3.17tn, their lowest level in more than five years.

分析師們表示，儲(chǔ)備數(shù)據(jù)暗示，中國(guó)人民銀行(PBoC)上月動(dòng)用約270億美元支持人民幣，因?yàn)槠渫鈪R儲(chǔ)備總量減少了180億美元(多于預(yù)期)，至3.17萬(wàn)億美元，這是五年多來最低水平。

“The renminbi has held fairly steady against the dollar in recent months. But, as [the] data highlight, this is only because the PBoC has continued to intervene heavily in the FX markets in response to still large capital outflows,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics. “Looking ahead, we think the risks to the currency remain on the downside.”

“人民幣在近幾個(gè)月對(duì)美元保持相對(duì)穩(wěn)定。但是，正如這些數(shù)據(jù)所突顯的，這只是因?yàn)橹袊?guó)央行繼續(xù)在外匯市場(chǎng)大舉干預(yù)，以應(yīng)對(duì)仍然較大的資本外流，”凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家朱利安•埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)表示。“展望未來，我們認(rèn)為人民幣仍然面臨下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”

On Friday the offshore renminbi slipped to a low of Rmb6.7174 against the dollar, matching levels not seen since January’s turmoil on China’s currency and equity markets. The onshore rate closed at Rmb6.6718 ahead of China’s long Golden Week holiday.

上周五，離岸人民幣兌美元匯率跌至1美元兌6.7174元人民幣的低位，這是自1月份中國(guó)匯市和股市發(fā)生動(dòng)蕩以來未見的水平。在中國(guó)國(guó)慶黃金周長(zhǎng)假之前，在岸匯率收于1美元兌6.6718元人民幣。

The currency has fallen almost 7.5 per cent against the dollar since the PBoC reformed its management of the currency last year. Since the turmoil in January this year, investors have largely accepted that China’s new system does more closely reflect global market direction.

自中國(guó)央行去年改革其匯率管理機(jī)制以來，人民幣相對(duì)于美元已下跌近7.5%。自今年1月市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)動(dòng)蕩以來，投資者基本上接受中國(guó)新匯率制度確實(shí)在更密切地反映全球市場(chǎng)走向。

The changes have also largely appeased critics of Beijing’s previous currency actions as concern shifts instead to the rapid debt build-up in the world’s second-largest economy.

這些變化也基本上安撫了中國(guó)匯率行動(dòng)的批評(píng)者，各方的擔(dān)憂焦點(diǎn)隨即轉(zhuǎn)向世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的快速債務(wù)累積。

Speaking at last week’s IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington, PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan acknowledged the criticism, promising that Beijing will move to “exert control over credit growth”.

中國(guó)央行行長(zhǎng)周小川上周在華盛頓舉行的IMF和世界銀行(World Bank)會(huì)議上發(fā)表講話時(shí)，承認(rèn)存在這些批評(píng)，并承諾北京方面“會(huì)對(duì)信貸增長(zhǎng)有所控制”。

Mr Zhou also said in Washington that Beijing would continue to “improve exchange rate flexibility while maintaining exchange rate stability” — an increasingly contradictory mandate.

周小川還在華盛頓表示，北京方面將繼續(xù)“在提高匯率靈活性和保持匯率穩(wěn)定之間尋求平衡”，這是一個(gè)日益矛盾的任務(wù)。

“Under a [fully] market-determined exchange rate, the [renminbi] would be weaker against the US dollar than it is now,” said Bill Adams, senior international economist at PNC, which predicts that the current system will cushion the renminbi’s fall, holding it to 6.9 against the dollar by January and 7.1 per cent by the end of 2017.

“在一個(gè)完全由市場(chǎng)決定的匯率形成機(jī)制下，人民幣兌美元匯率將比現(xiàn)在更弱，”PNC高級(jí)國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家比爾•亞當(dāng)斯(Bill Adams)表示。這家金融服務(wù)企業(yè)預(yù)測(cè)，現(xiàn)行機(jī)制將緩沖人民幣跌勢(shì)，使其到1月份守住1美元兌6.9元人民幣水平，到2017年底守住1美元兌7.1元人民幣水平。

Earlier this year, Beijing’s foreign currency stockpile was declining by as much as $100bn a month. At the time, government officials said privately that they would welcome a $1tn decline in the reserves as Chinese companies paid down dollar-denominated debt and also snapped up overseas assets at an unprecedented rate.

今年早些時(shí)候，中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備逐月下降，月降幅最高在1000億美元。當(dāng)時(shí)，隨著中國(guó)企業(yè)償還美元債務(wù)，并以前所未有的速度收購(gòu)海外資產(chǎn)，政府官員們私下里表示，他們樂于接受外匯儲(chǔ)備減少1萬(wàn)億美元。

The officials also maintained that they would be comfortable with a $2tn forex cushion — which would still be by far the world’s largest — but continue to insist that there is “no basis” for a prolonged slide of the renminbi against the dollar.

這些官員們還認(rèn)為，他們將對(duì)2萬(wàn)億美元的外匯儲(chǔ)備(仍將是世界上遙遙領(lǐng)先的最大外匯儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模)感到放心，但同時(shí)繼續(xù)堅(jiān)稱，人民幣對(duì)美元不存在持續(xù)下滑的基礎(chǔ)。