投資者看好中國(guó)技術(shù)“超美”潛力

A young Chinese company built around voice-recognition technology this week announced it would soon begin marketing its smartwatch in the US, taking on Apple. It won’t just undercut Apple on price but offer a product with features that investors in the company say is as cool as Apple’s design.

一家以語(yǔ)音識(shí)別技術(shù)為核心技術(shù)打造起來(lái)的年輕中國(guó)公司本周宣布，不久后將開(kāi)始在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)上銷售自己的智能手表，與蘋(píng)果(Apple)一較高下，不但售價(jià)將低于蘋(píng)果，而且據(jù)該公司投資者表示，擬推的一款產(chǎn)品設(shè)計(jì)得與蘋(píng)果一樣酷。

For the past few decades, the US has considered itself the technological leader of the world. However, China may now be closing the gap across a variety of sectors, from drones and electric cars to data-mining and smartphones.

幾十年來(lái)，美國(guó)一直自視為科技領(lǐng)域的世界領(lǐng)袖。然而，從無(wú)人機(jī)和電動(dòng)汽車到數(shù)據(jù)挖掘和智能手機(jī)，中國(guó)在許多領(lǐng)域或許正在逐漸縮小與美國(guó)之間的差距。

With questions about demand for Tesla’s electric cars and the corporate governance of Elon Musk, its founder, following the company’s purchase of SolarCity, some fund managers in Shanghai are rubbing their hands in glee. They expect BYD, the Chinese electric carmaker, to benefit.

在特斯拉(Tesla)收購(gòu)SolarCity之后，圍繞特斯拉電動(dòng)汽車的需求以及創(chuàng)始人埃隆•馬斯克(Elon Musk)的公司治理問(wèn)題，投資者發(fā)出了質(zhì)疑，對(duì)此上海一些基金經(jīng)理興奮得直搓手，他們預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)電動(dòng)汽車生產(chǎn)商比亞迪(BYD)將從中獲益。

They have faith in BYD despite the fact that its shares are expensive — trading at 40 times earnings — and its profits rely partly on government subsidies and privileges such as the free licence available for electric vehicles.

他們對(duì)比亞迪有信心，盡管其股價(jià)已經(jīng)偏貴——市盈率達(dá)40倍——并且其盈利部分依賴于政府補(bǔ)貼以及電動(dòng)汽車享受免費(fèi)牌照等特權(quán)。

“The electric vehicle revolution will happen first in China,” says Wei Zhang, founder of Yuanhao Capital Management in Shanghai, who has a big position in the stock.

“電動(dòng)汽車革命將率先在中國(guó)發(fā)生，”上海元昊投資管理公司(Yuanhao Capital Management)創(chuàng)始人張煒說(shuō)。他持有很多比亞迪的股票。

“The first signal is that supply is unable to meet demand,” Mr Zhang said in his mid-July letter to investors, explaining his bullishness to his investors. “The second signal is leading technology. They have their own battery, (while Tesla relies on Japanese maker Panasonic). Their batteries are cheaper and more advanced. The third signal is that management interests are aligned.” Moreover, Mr Zhang notes, the company has introduced a stock ownership plan with the execution price 30 per cent higher than the current market price.

“第一個(gè)信號(hào)是供不應(yīng)求，”張煒在7月中旬致投資者的信中說(shuō)。他向投資者解釋了自己樂(lè)觀的理由。“第二個(gè)信號(hào)是領(lǐng)先的技術(shù)。它們擁有自己的電池(而特斯拉依賴日本制造商松下(Panasonic))。它們的電池更便宜、更先進(jìn)。第三個(gè)信號(hào)是管理層利益一致。”此外，張煒指出，比亞迪有一項(xiàng)員工持股計(jì)劃，行權(quán)價(jià)比當(dāng)前股價(jià)高30%。

Electric cars are not the only sector in which the Chinese are making inroads. Last winter, Palantir, the US private data-mining company in Palo Alto, California, came to Asia and received a warm reception. It was warmer than it had recently received in its own home market, easily commanding a valuation over $20bn.

電動(dòng)汽車并非中國(guó)企業(yè)正在開(kāi)疆拓土的唯一領(lǐng)域。去年冬天，美國(guó)加州帕洛阿爾托(Palo Alto)一家私人所有的數(shù)據(jù)挖掘公司Palantir到亞洲融資，受到了熱烈歡迎，甚至超過(guò)了近期在美國(guó)本土市場(chǎng)受到的歡迎，輕松獲得逾200億美元的估值。

But at the same time, venture capitalists in China are investing in their own Palantir-like big data firms.

但同時(shí)，中國(guó)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資家們也在投資于國(guó)內(nèi)類似于Palantir的大型數(shù)據(jù)公司。

For example, Sequoia Capital China is backing Fourth Paradigm, a Beijing company whose founder has not studied in the US, but has the confidence typical of a new generation of artificial intelligence specialists on the mainland that can critique Palantir’s business model and explain why theirs is superior.

例如，紅杉中國(guó)(Sequoia Capital China)就投資了北京的第四范式(Fourth Paradigm)。這家公司的創(chuàng)始人不曾在美國(guó)留過(guò)學(xué)，但具有一種自信，這種自信?？梢?jiàn)于中國(guó)大陸新一代的人工智能專家身上，他們會(huì)批評(píng)Palantir的商業(yè)模式，并解釋為何自己的商業(yè)模式更優(yōu)越。

Among the advantages these Chinese start-ups have is access to far more data than their US counterparts. “China can do at least as well as the US because AI needs data and China has more data,” said the founder of Fourth Paradigm.

這些中國(guó)創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)的優(yōu)勢(shì)之一，是它們可以接觸到比美國(guó)同行更多的數(shù)據(jù)。“中國(guó)起碼可以做得跟美國(guó)同樣好，因?yàn)槿斯ぶ悄苄枰獢?shù)據(jù)，而中國(guó)擁有更多數(shù)據(jù)，”第四范式創(chuàng)始人說(shuō)。

In other areas, such as drones, China has leapfrogged the US. Moreover, many of its fintech companies are more diversified and interesting than their US counterparts.

在無(wú)人機(jī)等其他一些領(lǐng)域，中國(guó)已經(jīng)超越了美國(guó)。此外，中國(guó)許多金融科技公司的業(yè)務(wù)比美國(guó)同行更加多元化、更有趣。

In some ways the gap between the US and China is still considerable. Baidu’s search engine, for example, is considered so mediocre that it has become a competitive disadvantage for China compared with Google which remains banned in the mainland.

在某些方面，中美之間的差距仍很大。比如，中國(guó)的搜索引擎百度(Baidu)被認(rèn)為太平庸了，跟谷歌相比，該公司就成了中國(guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)劣勢(shì)。目前，谷歌在中國(guó)大陸仍被封殺。

Baidu’s disappointing financial results last week reflect more serious difficulties than the criticism it received this year after a young man died of cancer having received dubious medical treatment advertised in online search results. What’s more, media deals these days are still mostly one way: western content in return for Chinese audiences.

百度今年曾廣招批評(píng)，起因是一名患有癌癥的年輕人因按照百度搜索結(jié)果中的廣告接受不可靠的治療而死亡，然而該公司在上周發(fā)布的令人失望的財(cái)報(bào)反映了更為深重的困境。此外，媒體領(lǐng)域的并購(gòu)大多仍是單向的：以西方內(nèi)容換取中國(guó)受眾。

Technology in China is undergoing a correction though not to the extent it is in the US, which is one reason why Palantir came to Asia in the first place.

在中國(guó)，科技領(lǐng)域正在經(jīng)歷一場(chǎng)調(diào)整，盡管程度不如美國(guó)，這正是Palantir首先前往亞洲融資的原因之一。

While industrial profits in China have picked up of late after contracting in 2015, profits in the computer, communication and other electronic equipment led by smartphones, jumped almost 20 per cent, according to the latest data from JPMorgan. Consolidation among internet companies is also helping profitability in China’s technology sector.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，經(jīng)過(guò)2015年的收縮之后，近期中國(guó)的工業(yè)利潤(rùn)有所好轉(zhuǎn)，而計(jì)算機(jī)、通信和其他電子設(shè)備制造業(yè)的利潤(rùn)更是大增了近20%，其中增長(zhǎng)最多的是智能手機(jī)。互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)之間的整合也有助于提高中國(guó)科技行業(yè)的盈利能力。

Part of the Chinese enthusiasm for US tech companies is that they have more faith in the dollar than in their own currency. That may not change any time soon, but faith in their own technology on the part of mainland investors will probably continue to grow.

中國(guó)人青睞美國(guó)科技企業(yè)，部分原因在于他們對(duì)于美元的信心大于對(duì)本國(guó)貨幣的信心。這種情況短期內(nèi)或許不會(huì)改變，但中國(guó)大陸投資者對(duì)本國(guó)技術(shù)的信心很可能將繼續(xù)增強(qiáng)。