特朗普還是希拉里 數(shù)據(jù)告訴你

If today’s general election polling holds true, HillaryClinton will easily defeat Donald Trump.

如果今天的大選民意調(diào)查屬實，希拉里·克林頓(HillaryClinton)將輕松擊敗唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)。

Current national and battleground state polls haveMr. Trump trailing Mrs. Clinton by about 10percentage points should they face off in the generalelection.

目前，全國和關鍵州的民調(diào)均顯示，倘若是特朗普和克林頓在大選中對決，特朗普會落后大約10個百分點。

If those numbers hold, Mrs. Clinton would take all of the states that President Obama won in2012, as well as North Carolina (which he won in 2008), putting her far over the 270 electoralvotes needed to win.

假如這種數(shù)字維持不變，奧巴馬總統(tǒng)在2012年贏得的各州均會成為克林頓的囊中之物，再加上北卡羅萊納州(奧巴馬曾在2008年拿下)，問鼎白宮所需的270張選舉人團票數(shù)將遠遠不在話下。

Mrs. Clinton currently fares worse than Mr. Obama only in New York, a state that she would wineasily according to current polling.

與當年的奧巴馬相比，克林頓只在紐約州的支持率有所不及。以目前的民調(diào)來看，她可以在該州輕松取勝。

This is how the map would look if Mr.Trump improved on his polling margin by five percentagepoints in each state.

如果特朗普在每個州的成績提升5個百分點，前景就會是這樣。

He would win Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, but he would still lose the election.

他會在佛羅里達州、北卡羅來納州和俄亥俄州獲勝，但仍然會在大選中失利。

Mr. Trump could win if he improves on his polling margin by 10 percentage points.

如果特朗普在每個州獲得的支持提升10個百分點，就可能贏得大選。

In that scenario, Mr. Trump would win five additional battleground states that Mitt Romneylost in 2012, a big swing in the electoral map that would leave him with roughly 30 electoralvotes to spare.

在這種情況下，特朗普將拿下米特·羅姆尼(Mitt Romney)在2012年中落敗的另外五個關鍵州。這是選舉地圖的巨大逆轉(zhuǎn)，可以讓他獲得大約30張的選舉人團票數(shù)優(yōu)勢來揮霍。

Closing large polling gaps in the time remaining is rare but certainly not unprecedented.

在剩下的時間里進行大幅趕超是十分罕見的，但也不是史無前例。

In 1980, Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan in many polls this time of year. He went on to lose by10 points.

在1980年，吉米·卡特(Jimmy Carter)在這個階段的很多民調(diào)中領先于羅納德·里根(Ronald Reagan)，但最終卻以10個百分點之差落敗。