低價智能手機大行其道，蘋果能否穩(wěn)贏中國市場？

As China’s economy slows down, Apple could face problems of its own in the world’s secondlargest economy. Depending on which measures you believe, Chinese technology giant Xiaomirecently became the largest seller in the smartphone market, taking a market share of 13.7%during the last three months of 2014 compared to 12.3% for Apple during the same period,according to market intelligence firm IDC. While an alternate report by Canalys shows Appleas the top seller, another research firm, Kantar WorldPanel, also ranked Xiaomi as the marketleader.

隨著中國經(jīng)濟增長步伐放緩，，蘋果公司可能會在這個全球第二大經(jīng)濟體面臨一些自己的問題。市場研究機構(gòu)IDC的近期數(shù)據(jù)顯示，小米已成為中國智能手機市場最大的出貨商，該公司2014年第四季度的國內(nèi)市場份額為13.7%，同期蘋果在中國的市場份額則為12.3%。不過，另一家調(diào)研公司Canalys的報告表明蘋果的智能手機銷量仍居行業(yè)之首。而另一家市場研究機構(gòu)Kantar WorldPanel則將小米列為市場龍頭。實際情況如何，就要看大家相信哪種衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)了。

Beyond these reports, Apple’s phones continue to be popular in China. The company sawexplosive growth during the last quarter, but Xiaomi’s ascendance could become a headachefor the iconic American brand, as it has for the biggest Android phone maker in the world,Samsung SRX . In 2014, Xiaomi’s market share in China jumped by 186% from the previousyear, while Samsung’s declined by 22% during the same period.

盡管這些報告結(jié)論不同，但蘋果手機在中國仍很受歡迎。上季度，該公司實現(xiàn)了爆炸式增長。然而，小米的崛起已經(jīng)給全球最大的安卓手機制造商三星帶來了麻煩。作為美國的標(biāo)志性品牌，蘋果可能也會對此感到頭疼。2014年，小米在中國的市場份額同比增長了186%，三星的份額卻下降了22%。

Xiaomi’s competitive advantage? Price.

小米的競爭優(yōu)勢是什么呢?價格。

While the average price of an iPhone 6 rose to $687 at the end of last year, the average price ofAndroid phones fell to $254 – a significant gap. Xiaomi’s phones, which have a similar designaesthetic to Apple’s but runs on a modified version of the Android system, are even cheaper atan average price of $220 per phone.

到去年底，iPhone 6的平均售價已升至687美元，安卓手機的平均售價則降至254美元，二者差異巨大。小米手機采用了和蘋果類似的設(shè)計美學(xué)，使用變種安卓系統(tǒng)，平均售價更低至220美元。

The fact that Chinese consumers have a significantly cheaper option could impact Apple sales ifChina’s economy remains sluggish and consumers become increasingly cost-conscious. In2014, China’s economy slowed to 7.4%, the lowest level in decades, and is expected to slowdown further in the next few years, according to the International Monetary Fund.

如果中國經(jīng)濟增長依然乏力，消費者對支出成本將日益敏感，他們可以選擇更便宜的替代品，這可能影響蘋果的銷售業(yè)績。2014年，中國經(jīng)濟增速降至7.4%，是幾十年來的最低點，國際貨幣基金組織預(yù)計今后幾年中國經(jīng)濟將進一步放緩。

This is especially significant because China is one of Apple’s key markets. Even though thecompany did notsell more phones in China than in the U.S. in 2014, as analysts initiallyspeculated, its sales are reportedly on track to get there, partly due to its partnership withleading telecom provider China Mobile. In addition, the approximately 700 million smartphoneusers in China represent a vast market opportunity for Apple’s future growth.

這一點特別值得關(guān)注，因為中國是蘋果的主要市場之一。盡管如分析師當(dāng)初猜測的那樣，2014年iPhone在中國銷量并未超過美國，但據(jù)報道，蘋果與中國最大的電信運營商中國移動達成合作后，銷量增勢迅猛。此外，中國約有7億智能手機用戶，對蘋果未來增長意味著巨大的市場機遇。

It’s a safe bet that Apple will continue to see hefty profits from the region, but fast growingcompetition from Xiaomi and other Chinese smartphone makers like Huawei could slow thatprogress and represents a threat to be taken seriously; and not just because of the impact inChina either.

應(yīng)該說蘋果仍將在中國獲利豐厚，但小米及華為等其他中國智能手機廠商帶來的競爭威脅正在加劇，蘋果需要嚴(yán)陣以待;與此同時，沖擊也不僅限于中國市場。

As Xiaomi expands its presence internationally, the popularity of its low-priced smartphonescould impact Apple in other large markets, too, especially those where per capita income is lowand a cheaper alternative to the iPhone is attractive.

隨著小米的國際化擴張，其低價智能手機的火爆人氣也可能在其他幾大市場對蘋果造成沖擊，特別是在那些人均收入低、iPhone的低價替代品頗具吸引力的市場。

In India, for example, which is the fastest growing smartphone market, Apple only has a 2%market share because of a high price point, which makes it extremely vulnerable tocompetition. Xiaomi also has a modest market share of 4% so far. However, the importantmetric is that 64% of smartphones shipments during the fourth quarter were priced at lessthan $200, according to research firm Canalys. That’s a price range Xiaomi would find mucheasier to match than Apple.

以印度為例，這是全球增長最快的智能手機市場，但蘋果的份額只有2%，原因是iPhone價格較高，在競爭中不堪一擊。到目前為止，小米在印度的份額也只有4%。但Canalys公司指出，2014年第四季度，售價低于200美元的智能手機占印度智能手機出貨量的64%。和蘋果相比，小米更容易填補這一價格空間。

On the flip side, Apple could potentially benefit from regulatory hurdles that Xiaomi faces,such as in India where a court ruled that the Chinese company can’t sell phones that violateSwedish phone maker Ericsson’s patents until further hearings (although Xiaomi is temporarilyback on Indian e-commerce site Flipkart). Another factor in Apple’s favor is that its status asa luxury brand in emerging markets, combined with its marketing expertise, could enable itto keep market share despite higher prices.

但另一方面，小米面臨的監(jiān)管障礙有可能讓蘋果受益。例如，印度一家法院裁定，進一步聆訊前，小米不得在印度銷售侵犯瑞典愛立信手機專利的產(chǎn)品(盡管小米的產(chǎn)品已暫時重返印度電子商務(wù)網(wǎng)站Flipkart)。另一個有利于蘋果的因素是，它在新興市場屬于奢侈品牌，再加上該公司的營銷能力，有可能讓蘋果在產(chǎn)品售價較高的情況下仍有能力維持市場份額。

What all this means is that while Apple will certainly remain one of the dominant players in theglobal smartphone arena, emerging competition from aggressive low-cost technologycompanies like Xiaomi could still make a serious dent in Apple’s growth trajectory in some of itsbiggest markets.

總的來說，雖然蘋果必將繼續(xù)在全球智能手機領(lǐng)域處于主導(dǎo)地位，但在某些最主要的市場，小米等新生力量積極采用低成本技術(shù)，將明顯削弱蘋果的增長勢頭。

Sanjay Sanghoee is a business commentator. He has worked at investment banks LazardFreres and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, as well as at hedge fund Ramius Capital. Sanghoeeholds an MBA from Columbia Business School. He does not hold shares of Apple, Samsung,Xiaomi, or Huawei.

本文作者現(xiàn)為商業(yè)評論員，曾在投行拉扎德和德利佳華任職，還曾為RamiusCapital對沖基金效力，握有哥倫比亞商學(xué)院MBA學(xué)位。他本人并不持有蘋果、三星、小米和華為的任何股份。(財富中文網(wǎng))