美國最賺錢的企業(yè) 依然是油企

It is stunning that Apple managed to sell 74msmartphones in the fourth quarter of last year. Theresulting profit, $18bn, is unfathomably large. At thesame time, though, it is not a surprise that Apple isthe most profitable company in the world. Theinfluence of its products is immense. We live in anage of information, mobility and connectivity. Appleis the company for our times and so it seems naturalthat it should make the most money.

蘋果(Apple)去年第四季度7400萬部智能手機的銷售業(yè)績著實令人震驚。由此產(chǎn)生的180億美元的巨額利潤超出了人們的想象。但與此同時，蘋果是世界上最賺錢的公司并不令人感到意外。蘋果產(chǎn)品的影響力非常大。我們生活在一個信息、移動和互聯(lián)的時代。蘋果正是應運而生的公司，所以它最賺錢似乎是理所當然的。

In that context it is striking to consider the companies that have led the US profits table overthe past six decades.

在這種背景下，分析過去60年引領(lǐng)美國利潤表的公司是非常有趣的事情。

At one end, Apple; at the other, General Motors. Between them, a gradual transformation ofthe US corporate landscape. In the 1950s, the fattest profits were stamped out bymanufacturers and heavy industry; the scene today is more raucous, with technology,healthcare, finance and telecoms among the biggest earners. And through the years inbetween, a single wide streak of continuity: huge profits at the oil groups.

榜單的一頭是蘋果，而另一頭是通用汽車(General Motors)。在它們中間的公司則體現(xiàn)了美國企業(yè)格局的逐步轉(zhuǎn)變。上世紀50年代，制造業(yè)企業(yè)和重工業(yè)創(chuàng)造了最豐厚的利潤;現(xiàn)在的榜單更加多元化，科技、醫(yī)療、金融以及電信行業(yè)都加入了最賺錢企業(yè)之列。而在這些年里，唯一始終不變的是依然賺取巨額利潤的石油集團。

Looking down a list of the 10 most profitable companies in the S&P 500 for each of thepast 60 years, the continuity is astonishing. From 1955 to 1961 the list barely changes. It istopped by General Motors, its rivalFord is somewhere on it, and the rest is a mix of big oil —Exxon, Texaco, Chevron, Mobil, Gulf Oil — and industrial groups.

看一下過去60年里每年標普500指數(shù)(S&P 500)成分股中10家最賺錢公司的榜單，就會發(fā)現(xiàn)驚人的連續(xù)性。從1955年至1961年，這個榜單幾乎沒有變化。通用汽車位居榜首，其競爭對手福特汽車(Ford)也在其中，其余的是石油巨頭——埃克森(Exxon)、德士古(Texaco)、雪佛龍(Chevron)、美孚(Mobil)和海灣石油公司(Gulf Oil)——和工業(yè)集團。

Then, in 1961, comes the first sign that the US and, in lockstep, the global economy ischanging:International Business Machines squeaks on to the list. The company had beenproducing transistor-based (rather than switch- or vacuum-tube based) computers for a fewyears, and had already invented disc-based random-access memory. But IBM’s appearanceon the list is not just a moment for technology. It is a milestone in the ascendancy ofinformational labour — as opposed to the physical work of manufacturing. IBM computers werebeing used to run airline reservation systems. Its Selectric typewriter had just beenintroduced.

接下來在1961年，首次有跡象表明美國經(jīng)濟以及與其步調(diào)一致的全球經(jīng)濟正在發(fā)生變革：IBM躋身最賺錢公司的名單之列。當時IBM生產(chǎn)晶體管(而非基于開關(guān)或真空管的)電腦已有數(shù)年時間，并發(fā)明了可隨機訪問的磁盤存儲器。但IBM出現(xiàn)在名單上不僅僅代表著科技時代的來臨，它也是信息化勞動相對于制造業(yè)體力勞動獲得優(yōu)勢的一個里程碑。當時，IBM的電腦被用于運行航空訂票系統(tǒng)，而該公司的Selectric電動打字機才剛剛問世。

The following 25 years are strikingly consistent. The motor industry, oil and industrialsdominate the list with IBM. Only three companies break this pattern. In 1967, Eastman Kodakappears at number 9. In 1970, the conglomerate craze (the flip side of today’s break-upfever) shows up briefly, in the form of ITT — telecom, hotel operator, bread baker andindustrial manufacturer. AT&T cracks the top 10 in 1985, after the government dismantledits monopoly in US telephony.

隨后的25年展現(xiàn)了驚人的連續(xù)性。汽車、石油以及工業(yè)企業(yè)與IBM共同主宰榜單。只有3家公司打破了這種局面。1967年，伊士曼柯達公司(Eastman Kodak)出現(xiàn)在第9位。1970年，組建企業(yè)集團的熱潮(如今拆分熱的另一面)風靡一時，典型代表是美國國際電話電報公司(ITT)，旗下業(yè)務包括電信、酒店運營、面包店以及工業(yè)制造。在美國政府打破其在電話服務行業(yè)的壟斷地位之后，AT&T于1985年跌出了前10名的榜單。

The real moment of change comes in 1986, when two pure consumer goods companies reachthe top tier. Philip Morris (now Altria) and Nabisco — tobacco and biscuits — take the numberseven and 10 spots. Five years later the top 10 looks dramatically different than it did in 1955.Merck and Bristol-Myers reflect the growing importance of healthcare while Coca-ColaandProcter & Gamble join Altria and underline the strength of the consumer economy.

真正變革的時刻出現(xiàn)在1986年，當時兩家純消費品企業(yè)進入了前10名。后來改名為奧馳亞(Altria)的煙草公司菲利普莫里斯(Philip Morris)和餅干生產(chǎn)商納貝斯科(Nabisco)分別占據(jù)第7位和第10位。5年之后，位列前10名的公司與1955年相比已發(fā)生巨大變化。制藥公司默克(Merck)和百時美施貴寶(Bristol-Myers Squibb)的上榜反映了醫(yī)療保健的重要性日益上升，而可口可樂(Coca-Cola)和寶潔公司(Procter & Gamble)與奧馳亞一起上榜則突顯出消費經(jīng)濟的力量。

It is tempting to draw a line from the state of the economy or the world at large to the state ofcorporate profitability. But companies have a life of their own. Mergers, for example, have asmuch to do with where profits accumulate as which industries are rising or falling. It is easy topoint to “the rise of the American consumer” but the US was already a consumer economy inthe 1950s with household expenditures accounting for well over half of output.

人們會忍不住認為美國經(jīng)濟乃至整個世界經(jīng)濟的狀況與企業(yè)盈利能力狀況存在關(guān)聯(lián)。但是企業(yè)有其自身的生命周期。例如，公司合并既與利潤積累相關(guān)，也與行業(yè)的崛起或衰落有關(guān)。人們很容易認為這是“美國消費者崛起”的結(jié)果，但美國在上世紀50年代就已經(jīng)是消費經(jīng)濟，那時家庭支出占到社會總產(chǎn)出的一半以上。

That said, manufacturing accounted for almost 30 per cent of US GDP at the time. Now it is 12per cent while finance, professional services and healthcare have gone from 7 per cent to 21per cent.

話雖如此，但當時制造業(yè)對美國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的貢獻比例接近30%。現(xiàn)在這一比例為12%，而金融、專業(yè)服務和醫(yī)療的比例已經(jīng)從7%提高到21%。

In the past 20 years there have been, three important additions to the list. First, personalcomputing, as represented by Intel and Microsoft (1993 and 1999 respectively). Second,Walmart (2002) — a perfect example of how industrial, alongside economic and technologicalchanges, can influence company profits. Retail was no less important to the US economy in the1950s than it is today; but Walmart’s cost-cutting strategy has insured that more of theindustry’s profits are captured by a small number of companies.

在過去20年間，榜單上又出現(xiàn)了3個重要的變化。首先是以由英特爾(Intel)和微軟(Microsoft)為代表的個人計算機行業(yè)，兩家公司分別在1993年和1999年上榜。其次是于2002年上榜的沃爾瑪(Walmart)——這是行業(yè)變革(與經(jīng)濟及技術(shù)變革一起)影響公司利潤的一個完美案例。零售業(yè)在上世紀50年代對美國經(jīng)濟的重要性不亞于今天，但沃爾瑪削減成本的戰(zhàn)略保證了該行業(yè)的多數(shù)利潤由少數(shù)幾家公司把持。

Perhaps most significant was the appearance of the banks. Citigroup was the most profitablecompany in the US in 2002, just six years before the financial crisis.

或許最重要的變化是銀行出現(xiàn)在榜單之列?；ㄆ旒瘓F(Citigroup)是2002年美國最賺錢的公司，此時距金融危機爆發(fā)僅有6年時間。

But if there is one thing that should give us pause, it is the ubiquity of the oil companies at, ornear, the top of the profitability rankings. Exxon and Chevron appeared on the 1955 list, andsix decades later they remain.

但如果有一件事值得我們深思的話，那就是石油公司普遍處于(或接近)盈利能力排名的頂端。?？松脱┓瘕埑霈F(xiàn)在1955年的榜單上，而60年后它們依然榜上有名。

As much as the world has changed over the past 60 years, it still runs on oil.

不管世界在過去60年發(fā)生了多么大的變化，它仍然要依賴石油運轉(zhuǎn)。