油價(jià)暴跌，OPEC決定不減產(chǎn)

油價(jià)暴跌，OPEC決定不減產(chǎn)

VIENNA — The oil cartel OPEC decided on Thursday not to cut petroleum production, despite the plunge in prices in recent months that has indicated the diminishing clout of the organization.

維也納——石油輸出國(guó)組織(OPEC)周四決定不減少石油產(chǎn)量，盡管最近幾個(gè)月油價(jià)暴跌意味著，這個(gè)石油卡特爾的影響力正不斷減弱。

On news of the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the price of Brent crude oil, a global benchmark, fell an additional $4 to a four-year low of about $73. American crude dropped below $70, an even more significant threshold.

OPEC宣布上述決定的同時(shí)，全球基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油的價(jià)格又下跌了四美元，降至73美元左右的四年低點(diǎn)。美國(guó)原油價(jià)格則降到了70美元以下。70美元是一個(gè)更加重要的分水嶺。

A more than 30 percent decline in prices in recent months has shaken the 12-member group. For three years, OPEC had little trouble keeping prices in the $100-a-barrel range that many of its members consider satisfactory.

石油價(jià)格最近幾個(gè)月下跌了超過(guò)30%，令這個(gè)12國(guó)組織受到了震動(dòng)。三年來(lái)，OPEC一直可以輕松地讓油價(jià)保持在每桶100美元左右的價(jià)格，這個(gè)價(jià)格被許多成員國(guó)認(rèn)為是令人滿意的。

But markets have spun out of OPEC’s control of late. Prices have come under pressure as global output of crude oil outstripped demand this year. Analysts forecast excess supplies of crude to continue to build in 2015.

但如今，市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)脫離了OPEC的控制。今年全球原油產(chǎn)量的供大于求令價(jià)格承壓。分析師預(yù)計(jì)2015年，原油供應(yīng)在過(guò)量的基礎(chǔ)上將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。

The main new source of supply is oil extracted from shale in the United States, which is expected to add about one million barrels a day of oil production this year and an additional one million barrels a day in 2015.

主要的新供應(yīng)來(lái)源是美國(guó)的頁(yè)巖油，預(yù)計(jì)今年每天將生產(chǎn)100萬(wàn)桶石油，2015年的日產(chǎn)量將再增加100萬(wàn)桶。

OPEC seems at a loss about how to cope with this new source of competition and is also struggling to influence other big producers outside the organization like Russia and Brazil. Unable to come up with a strategy for handling these new developments, the cartel has decided not to intervene, evidently hoping that low prices will eventually curb production in the United States.

OPEC似乎不知道如何應(yīng)對(duì)來(lái)自美國(guó)的新競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，也在努力影響該組織之外的其他大的石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)，比如俄羅斯和巴西。由于無(wú)法拿出應(yīng)對(duì)這些最新進(jìn)展的策略，OPEC已經(jīng)決定不去干預(yù)，希望低油價(jià)最終會(huì)限制美國(guó)的產(chǎn)量。

The price decline “does not mean we should really rush and do something," OPEC’s secretary general, Abdalla El-Badri, told reporters after the meeting here on Thursday. “We don’t want to panic,” he said. “We want to see how the market behaves.”

油價(jià)下跌“并不意味著我們應(yīng)該急著采取什么行動(dòng)”，周四在維也納召開會(huì)議之后，OPEC秘書長(zhǎng)阿卜杜拉·薩利姆·巴德里(Abdalla El-Badri)告訴記者。“我們不想慌了陣腳，”他說(shuō)。“我們想要看看市場(chǎng)的反應(yīng)。”

Even though lower prices will hurt oil producers in the United States, the American economy will probably benefit as consumers have more money to spend and companies’ energy bills decline. Europe and Japan, both large oil importers, are also likely to get a boost from lower prices, although in Europe high taxes on energy limit gains for consumers.

低油價(jià)將損害美國(guó)石油生產(chǎn)商的利益，但由于消費(fèi)者有了更多錢來(lái)消費(fèi)，企業(yè)的能源成本下降，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能會(huì)受益。歐洲和日本都需要進(jìn)口大量石油，它們可能也會(huì)因?yàn)橛蛢r(jià)下跌而受益，雖然歐洲較高的能源稅率限制了消費(fèi)者能夠獲得的利益。

Lower prices, on the other hand, could be very painful for OPEC producers, who depend heavily on oil revenue.

另一方面，油價(jià)下跌可能會(huì)令OPEC的產(chǎn)油國(guó)十分苦惱，因?yàn)檫@些國(guó)家嚴(yán)重依賴石油收入。

Some of the world’s largest exporters of oil, including Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela, are members of OPEC. The group meets at least a couple of times a year, usually in Vienna, where the organization has its headquarters, but sometimes more often to discuss and try to manage the global oil markets.

全球最大的石油出口國(guó)中，伊朗、伊拉克、沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長(zhǎng)國(guó)、委內(nèi)瑞拉等都是OPEC的成員。該組織一年至少會(huì)召開十幾次會(huì)議，通常是在其總部所在地維也納，但有時(shí)會(huì)更頻繁地會(huì)面，討論并嘗試管理全球石油市場(chǎng)。

While Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have each stashed away hundreds of billions of dollars in savings to buffer the effects of lower prices, Iran, Algeria and Venezuela, for example, will struggle to finance their government budgets at current price levels, according to a recent study by Rachel Ziemba, an analyst at Roubini Global Economics.

魯比尼全球經(jīng)濟(jì)咨詢公司(Roubini Global Economics)分析師蕾切爾·津巴(Rachel Ziemba)最近的一項(xiàng)研究表明，盡管沙特阿拉伯、科威特和阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長(zhǎng)國(guó)各自均已積攢了數(shù)千億美元的儲(chǔ)蓄，以緩沖價(jià)格走低帶來(lái)的影響，但伊朗、阿爾及利亞和委內(nèi)瑞拉等國(guó)，將難以在目前的油價(jià)水平上為政府預(yù)算籌集資金。

Venezuela and some other producers badly wanted a cut to prop up prices and will be bitterly disappointed by the meeting’s outcome.

迫切希望減產(chǎn)以抬高油價(jià)的委內(nèi)瑞拉和其他部分產(chǎn)油國(guó)，將對(duì)會(huì)議結(jié)果深感失望。

Analysts say that Thursday’s announcement signals a radical change on the part of OPEC. Bhushan Bahree, an OPEC analyst at the market research IHS firm, called the announcement “a major tactical shift.” For decades OPEC has intervened to manage oil prices, cutting production when necessary. “Now they are defending volume and letting the rest take care of itself,” he said.

分析人士稱，周四的通告表明，OPEC發(fā)生了巨大的變化。市場(chǎng)研究公司IHS的OPEC分析師布尚·巴里(Bhushan Bahree)稱通告是“一個(gè)重大的戰(zhàn)術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)變”。數(shù)十年來(lái)，為了管理油價(jià)，OPEC一直從中干預(yù)，在必要時(shí)削減產(chǎn)量。“現(xiàn)在它們捍衛(wèi)產(chǎn)量，其他的順其自然，”他說(shuō)。

Analysts say that at least some OPEC powers appear to have recognized that lower prices may prevail for a considerable time. In that situation, the organization needs to work on regaining market share.

分析人士稱，至少部分OPEC國(guó)家似乎承認(rèn)，油價(jià)走低可能會(huì)持續(xù)相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間。在那種情況下，該組織需要努力奪回市場(chǎng)份額。

While exports of crude oil from the United States are still restricted, the surge in output is being felt on global markets as a result of the increased export of refined petroleum products like gasoline.

盡管美國(guó)的原油出口依然受限，但因?yàn)槠偷瘸善酚统隹诘脑黾樱蚴袌?chǎng)都感受到了產(chǎn)量激增的影響。

American imports from OPEC and elsewhere have also been sharply reduced, forcing OPEC producers to compete for the remaining markets in Asia and Europe. Iran, for instance, is storing as much as 100,000 barrels a day on tankers because it is unable to find markets.

美國(guó)也大幅減少了從OPEC和其他地方的進(jìn)口，迫使OPEC產(chǎn)油國(guó)爭(zhēng)奪剩下的亞洲和歐洲市場(chǎng)。比如，因?yàn)闊o(wú)法找到市場(chǎng)，伊朗每天要在油輪上儲(chǔ)存多達(dá)10萬(wàn)桶油。

Analysts say the surge in supply from the United States poses particular challenges to OPEC because there is little the producers’ group can do but hope that lower prices will eventually discourage investment in drilling in the United States, thus reducing production.

分析人士稱，來(lái)自美國(guó)的供應(yīng)量的劇增對(duì)OPEC產(chǎn)油國(guó)構(gòu)成了非同尋常的挑戰(zhàn)，因?yàn)槌思南Ｍ谟蛢r(jià)走低最終將抑制美國(guó)的鉆探投資，進(jìn)而減少產(chǎn)量外，這個(gè)產(chǎn)油國(guó)組織幾乎別無(wú)他法。