金價(jià)暴跌為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)拉響警報(bào)

NEW YORK, Apr 19 (Reuters) - The plunge in the gold price in the past week may have raised a big red flag over the global economy.

路透社紐約4月19日 - 黃金價(jià)格在過(guò)去一周中的暴跌，也許是對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)出了重大的危險(xiǎn)信號(hào)。

Some top investors say the gold sell-off, and the broader declines in oil and metals prices, reflect the failure of the Federal Reserve and other central banks to create robust demand even as they inject massive amounts of money into the world financial system.

一些頂級(jí)的投資者認(rèn)為，金價(jià)下挫以及原油和金屬價(jià)格的普遍走低，表明美國(guó)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)(美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)/FED)等央行盡管向世界金融體系挹注了大量資金，卻仍未能創(chuàng)造出強(qiáng)勁需求。

The slide, which took gold to its biggest one-day loss ever in dollar terms on Monday, unnerved investors who saw billions of dollars in gains wiped out in a few days, and it may portend declines in other asset prices ahead. That may have begun this week with several days of big stock price drops.

以美元計(jì)算的黃金價(jià)格在周一錄得史上最大單日跌幅，這可能預(yù)示了其他資產(chǎn)價(jià)格未來(lái)的下跌走勢(shì)。而隨著股市本周幾天來(lái)的大跌，這種局面也許已經(jīng)展開(kāi)。

Some see the move in gold as a possible flashpoint for a broader economic and markets shock comparable to the collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in 1998 and even the financial crisis a decade later. Both events were preceded by sharp drops in gold.

有人認(rèn)為黃金這輪跌勢(shì)可能成為引發(fā)整體經(jīng)濟(jì)與市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩的導(dǎo)火索，且這一次的動(dòng)蕩恐堪比1998年長(zhǎng)期資本管理公司(LTCM)的倒閉以及10年之后的那場(chǎng)金融危機(jī)。這兩場(chǎng)事件發(fā)生前黃金均出現(xiàn)了大跌。

The gold and commodities weakness is "signaling concerns about global growth," said Mohamed El-Erian, the co-chief investment officer of PIMCO, which oversees $2 trillion in assets. "Commodities have been sending the signal on growth for a while, and now even louder."

太平洋投資管理公司(PIMCO)共同投資長(zhǎng)埃里安說(shuō)，黃金和大宗商品的疲弱走勢(shì)釋出了“擔(dān)心全球經(jīng)濟(jì)成長(zhǎng)”的信號(hào)，“大宗商品反映經(jīng)濟(jì)成長(zhǎng)已有一段時(shí)間，現(xiàn)在只是越發(fā)明顯了。”

And after the stampede out of gold earlier this week, investors on Thursday dumped their holdings of U.S. inflation bonds after a lousy auction. This kind of debt is seen as a way to protect against any rise in the inflation rate that might materialize in a more buoyant economy.

在本周稍早倉(cāng)皇逃離金市以后，投資者周四出脫美國(guó)通膨保值債券的倉(cāng)位，因此前的標(biāo)售結(jié)果不佳。這類(lèi)債券被視為是以防通脹率上升可能在繁榮經(jīng)濟(jì)中變?yōu)楝F(xiàn)實(shí)的方式。

The post-crisis run-up in gold prices resulted in part from speculation triggered by the massive amounts of cash created by aggressive monetary policy. It had been thought that the massive creation of credit would support a "re-inflation" of the world economy - but the recent pullback in gold, oil and copper - the latter two assets linked closely with global industrial growth - suggests that this may just not be happening.

金價(jià)在危機(jī)過(guò)后走勢(shì)高漲，部分是由激進(jìn)貨幣政策創(chuàng)造大量資金促發(fā)的投機(jī)活動(dòng)所致。人們過(guò)去一直認(rèn)為，大舉創(chuàng)造信貸將支持全球經(jīng)濟(jì)“再通脹”，但近期金價(jià)、油價(jià)和銅價(jià)的回落表明，這種情況可能不會(huì)發(fā)生。石油和銅與全球工業(yè)成長(zhǎng)密切相關(guān)。

The recent rush into the safety of U.S. Treasuries - which has pushed yields close to four-month lows - is another sign that the global economy is far from humming. Treasuries are often seen as a shelter when the economy is weak or unstable.

最近投資者蜂擁購(gòu)買(mǎi)美國(guó)公債，推動(dòng)收益率(殖利率)接近四個(gè)月低位，也是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)沒(méi)有起色的又一跡象。美國(guó)公債常常被視為是在經(jīng)濟(jì)疲弱或不穩(wěn)定之時(shí)的避風(fēng)港。