金融英語泛讀:美國買房正當(dāng)時(shí)

The Current Situation of Buying a House in the US美國買房正當(dāng)時(shí)

If you can borrow at 4. 5%or 5%over 30 years, many purchases start to look appealing.Especially if we get a hefty dose of inflation down the line.

If that happens, your monthly payments will be low and you'd get to repay the principal over time with devalued dollars. That's a double win.

Inflation isn't guaranteed：The bond markets are only predicting about 1. 4%inflation over the next 10 years, and BCA Research recently reminded clients that deflation, or falling prices, remains a danger.Unemployment is still rising and recent wages actually fell.

Yet if you had to bet from here, you'd bet on inflation in due course. The government is running massive deficits and has the printing presses at full throttle.That's the classic recipe.

When it comes to house prices, it's true they may not have fallen as far as you might expect.

A recent analysis in the Financial Analysts Journal suggested prices nationwide still weren't cheap by historical standards in relation to household incomes.

Homes were much cheaper, say, as recently as the 1970s. Furthermore:the bigger the bubble, the bigger the bust.Considering how sharply home prices climbed from 2002 to 2006，one might expect real estate to end up really, really cheap before bottoming out.And you wouldn't expect a quick rebound either.Japan still hasn't recovered from 1989.

But if you are thinking of buying a home, here's the more positive news：While overall market averages may not be as cheap as you might have expected, you can probably ignore them.

There are plenty of deals taking place far below the official average levels. The indices are masking a huge disparity in prices.Even the National Association of Realtors concedes distressed sales including foreclosures and short sales are closing about 20%below“normal”market rates.

Aggressive buyers are finding some simply terrific deals. And they're paying with cheap debt, too.

Default rates are rising. Lots of sellers are forced.

如果你能以4.5%或5%的利率獲得30年的貸款的話，那么，許多購房計(jì)劃看上去立刻就有了吸引力。如果接下來會(huì)出現(xiàn)較高的通貨膨脹的話，就更是如此了。

如果發(fā)生這種情況，你的月度供款就會(huì)比較低，你可以在一定時(shí)間內(nèi)用貶值的美元逐漸償還掉本金。這真是兩全其美。

通貨膨脹不一定會(huì)發(fā)生：債券市場(chǎng)對(duì)未來10年的通貨膨脹率預(yù)期只有1.4%，而BCA 研究機(jī)構(gòu)最近提醒客戶，通貨緊縮的危險(xiǎn)依然存在。失業(yè)率仍在上升，近期的工資水平實(shí)際在下降。

不過，如果你現(xiàn)在必須打個(gè)賭，你應(yīng)該預(yù)計(jì)到一定時(shí)候會(huì)發(fā)生通貨膨脹。政府現(xiàn)在有大量赤字，印鈔機(jī)正在全速運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。這是傳統(tǒng)的應(yīng)對(duì)方法。

至于房?jī)r(jià)，的確，它跌得可能不像你期待的那么多。

《金融分析師》最近的一個(gè)分析顯示，以房?jī)r(jià)與家庭收入比來衡量，與歷史水平相比，全美國范圍內(nèi)的房?jī)r(jià)仍不便宜。比如在20世紀(jì)70年代，住房?jī)r(jià)格要便宜得多。

此外，泡沫越大，破裂時(shí)的破壞也越大?？纯?002—2006年房?jī)r(jià)的攀升速度吧，人們很可能預(yù)計(jì)房地產(chǎn)最終觸底前會(huì)非常、非常便宜。而且你也不要指望能夠迅速出現(xiàn)回升。日本到現(xiàn)在也沒從1989年的泡沫破裂中恢復(fù)過來。

但是，如果你在考慮購買住房，這里有一個(gè)較激勵(lì)人的消息：雖然總體市場(chǎng)平均水平或許并不像期望的那么便宜，但你可以忽略它。

有大量交易是以遠(yuǎn)低于官方平均水平的價(jià)格成交的。房?jī)r(jià)指數(shù)掩蓋了具體價(jià)格上的巨大差異。

就連全美房地產(chǎn)協(xié)會(huì)也承認(rèn)，廉價(jià)銷售——包括止贖房和債務(wù)減免房銷售——的銷售價(jià)格比“正?！笔袃r(jià)低約20%。

大膽的買家發(fā)現(xiàn)了一些好得不得了的交易。而且，他們是以低成本的借款支付房款的。

違約率在上升。許多賣家都是被迫的。

實(shí)戰(zhàn)提升

核心單詞

purchase['p?:t??s]v./n.購買；進(jìn)貨

devalued[di'v?ljud]adj.減值的，貶值的

throttle['θr?tl]v.扼殺，壓制

average['?v?rid?]n.平均分；成功率

disparity[di'sp?riti]n.不同；不等

terrific[t?'rifik]adj.極度的，極大的

財(cái)經(jīng)知識(shí)一點(diǎn)通

本金（principal）

存款者或放款者拿出的錢（區(qū)別于“利息”）。

泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)（bubble economy）

指因投機(jī)交易極度活躍，金融證券、房地產(chǎn)等的市場(chǎng)價(jià)格脫離實(shí)際價(jià)值大幅上漲，造成表面繁榮的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象。簡(jiǎn)單來說就是價(jià)格脫離價(jià)值。

翻譯練習(xí)

If that happens, your monthly payments will be low and you'd get to repay the principal over time with devalued dollars.

Yet if you had to bet from here, you'd bet on inflation in due course.

There are plenty of deals taking place far below the official average levels.