英語世界文摘:What Should I Be Doing with My Money During the COVID-19 Pandemic?
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What Should I Be Doing with My Money During the COVID-19 Pandemic?
新冠大流行之際，該如何理財？
By Megan DiTrolio
文/梅甘·迪特羅里奧
You’ve heard it on the news, from your dad, and from your friends in banking: COVID-19 is catapulting1 the U.S. into an economic recession. It’s a tumultuous2 time, but that doesn’t mean you have to approach your finances blindly. We tapped3 Sallie Krawcheck, banking veteran and founder of female-focused financial planning service Ellevest, to answer your questions about investing and money management during the COVID-19 pandemic.
從新聞以及家人和在銀行工作的朋友那里，你已有所耳聞：新冠疫情使美國突然陷入經(jīng)濟衰退。這是個紛亂動蕩的階段，但并不意味著你只得盲目地處理個人財務(wù)。我們特邀薩莉·克勞切克——銀行業(yè)資深人士，女性財務(wù)規(guī)劃服務(wù)平臺Ellevest創(chuàng)始人——回答您有關(guān)新冠疫情大流行期間投資與理財?shù)膯栴}。
Everyone says we’re on the brink of an economic depression. Is that true?
人人都說我們?yōu)l臨經(jīng)濟蕭條。這是真的嗎？
I started my career as a research analyst covering the stock market. I have al-ways thought that the stock market talks to us and tells us what is happening, though sometimes it’s hard to interpret. The stock market is telling us that we are in a recession, probably a depression. It’s telling us that by the fact that it has declined so much, so fast. It was the worst first quarter in 100+ years, and the fastest move from what we call a bull market (an upward trending, robust, strong stock market) to what’s called a bear market, where we fall more than 20 percent (and our market has been down more than 30 percent).
我職業(yè)生涯的起點是股市的研究分析師。我一直認(rèn)為，股市會跟我們交談，并告訴我們正在發(fā)生什么事兒，盡管有時難以解讀。股市在告訴我們，我們正處于衰退，很可能是蕭條中。股市下跌得如此之多、如此之快，它是用這樣的事實來告訴我們的。2020年頭三個月，是一百多年來股市表現(xiàn)最差的第一季度，從我們所說的牛市（行情上行、穩(wěn)健而強勁的股市）向熊市的轉(zhuǎn)變最為迅速。在熊市里股價下跌會超過20%（而我們的市場現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)跌了超過30%）。
Does that mean it’s too late to sell stocks?
那是否意味著賣出股票為時已晚？
The number one and number two questions we get at Ellevest (and they change in order) is: Should I be buying and should I be selling? Typically, the answer to both is no. If you follow your instinct today and get out, you’re likely going to miss the upturn. The upturn after one of these declines tends to happen before it’s clear that we’re coming out of the recession.
我們在Ellevest被問到的第一個和第二個問題（排序不分先后）是：我該買入嗎？我該賣出嗎？通常，兩者的答案都是“否”。如果你今天聽?wèi){直覺逃出了市場，那么你很可能將錯過回升。類似的下跌會有多次，某次下跌后的回升往往發(fā)生在確定將走出衰退之前。
This idea of “If I can see what’s coming, can I take action?” is wrong. What you should do is something called rebalancing your portfolio (meaning buying or selling assets to maintain a desired level of asset allocation or risk). Let’s say you started off with an investment portfolio that’s made up of 70 percent equity and 30 percent bonds, which is a pretty risky portfolio. With that portfolio, over time you should earn higher returns. Because of what’s going on in the stock market, maybe you’re now no longer at 70-30, you’re at 55-45. Maybe you want to go back to 70-30, which means you want to buy equity and sell bonds. This rebalancing back to your goal can actually force you to make counter-intuitive decisions that you wouldn’t otherwise make.
“如果能覺察即將發(fā)生的事，我可以采取行動嗎？”這個想法是錯誤的。你應(yīng)當(dāng)做的是調(diào)整投資組合（即買入或賣出資產(chǎn)，以保持期望的資產(chǎn)配置或風(fēng)險水平）。比如說，你開始時的投資組合由70%的股票和30%的債券構(gòu)成，這是一個相當(dāng)有風(fēng)險的組合。隨時間推移，你可能憑著這一組合賺得更高回報。鑒于股市的當(dāng)前狀況，現(xiàn)在你的股票與債券投資比例，也許不再是70%比30%，而是55%比45%。或許你想恢復(fù)到70%比 30%，這意味著你需要買股票賣債券。這種回到原定目標(biāo)的再平衡，實際上能夠迫使你做出只有這種情況下才會做出的違背直覺的決定。
I’m recently unemployed due to COVID-19. What can I do?
由于新冠疫情，我最近失了業(yè)。我怎么辦呢？
It depends on your personal circumstance. Unemployment will be expanded, particularly for people who didn’t have unemployment insurance, like freelancers. But for some people, it will still mean spending through your emer-gency funds. For some people it’s going to mean, unfortunately, running up credit card debt. If those things are happening to you, stop investing. Instead, go into conservation mode: You need to replenish your emergency fund and pay down credit card debt before you begin to invest again.
這取決于個人狀況。失業(yè)的情況會增多，特別是對自由職業(yè)者那樣沒有買過失業(yè)保險的人來說。但對有些人來說，仍意味著要靠自己的應(yīng)急基金維持開銷。很不幸，對某些人而言，那將意味著信用卡債臺高筑。如果遭遇了那些事，就要停止投資。相反，要進入保護模式：你需要補充應(yīng)急基金，再次開始投資之前，還掉信用卡債務(wù)。
What steps can I take to restore financial health?
為了恢復(fù)財務(wù)健康，我可以采取哪些步驟？
Sit down and make a list of every area where you’re spending money and where you can begin to cut. Some obvious ones right now are going out to eat and travel. Use those funds to pay down credit card debt. Get rid of unnecessary subscriptions, like Netflix and Hulu. You’re not going to save a million dollars, but it adds up to make a difference.
你把錢花在了哪些方面，哪些可以開始削減，坐下來列個清單吧。顯而易見馬上就可以削減的是外出吃飯和旅游。用那些錢還掉信用卡債務(wù)。取消多余的訂閱，如奈飛和Hulu視頻。你不會省下百萬美元，但積少成多，情況就會有改觀。
When do you predict the recovery of our economy will start?
你預(yù)計經(jīng)濟何時將開始復(fù)蘇？
I would expect more volatility in the stock market. I think it will get better before we fully recognize that we’re coming out of the recession. I don’t think we’ll see a full recovery, frankly, until we have some resolution to the virus.
我預(yù)料股市會有更多波動。我認(rèn)為，在我們充分意識到即將走出衰退之前，經(jīng)濟形勢會變好。坦率地說，我認(rèn)為，在找到解決這種病毒的辦法之前，我們不會看到經(jīng)濟完全恢復(fù)。
Every downturn feels worse than every one that came before when you’re actually in it. This one feels particularly tough because it’s about our health. But, again, we have recovered from recession every time in history. This time, it may take a little bit longer, but the entrepreneurial spirit of the United States of America will come out on the other hand and drive the stock market even higher.
每逢低迷時期，當(dāng)你切實置身其中時，感受都要比此前的任何一次衰退糟糕。這一次我們感覺尤為艱困，因其事關(guān)健康。但是，再說一遍，我們已從歷史上的每一次衰退中恢復(fù)過來。這一次，或許要稍稍多費些時日，但從另一面看，美國的創(chuàng)業(yè)精神將得到發(fā)揚，并推動股票市場再創(chuàng)新高。
注釋：
1. catapult （使）突然處于……境地。
2. tumultuous 動蕩的，動亂的。
3. tap 指定（某人做某事）。
（譯者單位：中國社會科學(xué)院財經(jīng)戰(zhàn)略研究院）
