雨、浪和風:如何理解颶風風險

雨、浪和風:如何理解颶風風險

Millions of Americans live in the potential path of a hurricane.

數(shù)百萬美國人生活在颶風可能經(jīng)過的地方。

The good news is that hurricane and cyclone forecasts have gotten significantly more accurate in recent decades. The bad news is that climate change and population growth combine to make hurricanes more dangerous to more people.

好消息是，近幾十年來，颶風和氣旋預報的準確性大大提高了。壞消息是，氣候變化和人口增長相結合，使颶風對更多的人更加危險。

And research suggests that people are confused by common graphics and warnings about where hurricanes are headed and how they'll affect communities in their path.

研究表明，人們對常見的關于颶風行進方向以及它們將如何影響沿途社區(qū)的圖像和警告感到困惑。

Here are some basic principles you can use to avoid confusion when a hurricane is headed your way.

這里有一些基本原則，當颶風向你襲來時，你可以使用它們來避免困惑。

Figuring out whether you and your family are in the potential path of a hurricane is the first step. When a storm forms, the National Hurricane Center publishes a prediction map that shows where the hurricane is headed.

第一步是弄清楚你和你的家人是否處于颶風的潛在路徑上。當風暴形成時，國家颶風中心發(fā)布一份預測地圖，顯示颶風的走向。

That map sometimes has a central line that shows the most likely path of the hurricane. Imagine that the line starts at the current location of the storm — somewhere over the water — and extends toward the land, showing you where the storm is likely to be in the coming hours and days.

地圖上有時會有一條中心線，顯示出颶風最可能的路徑。想象一下，這條線從風暴的當前位置開始——在水面上的某個地方——向陸地延伸，顯示出未來幾個小時或幾天風暴可能在哪里。

But each location along the storm's projected path is less and less certain, because it's farther in the future. The storm could move slightly left or slightly right at any moment, and that changes where it ultimately makes landfall.

但是風暴預計路徑上的每個位置都越來越不確定，因為它在更遠的未來。風暴隨時可能輕微向左或向右移動，這就改變了它最終登陸的地點。

The map is usually published along with information about the storm's wind category. The categories range from tropical storms with sustained wind below 74 miles an hour up to Category 5 storms with sustained winds above 157 miles per hour.

該地圖通常與風暴的類別信息一起發(fā)布。這些類別包括持續(xù)風速在每小時74英里以下的熱帶風暴，以及持續(xù)風速在每小時157英里以上的5級風暴。

But, although high winds can destroy buildings, water is the most deadly part of a hurricane. And a storm's category doesn't tell you anything about the flooding it will cause.

但是，盡管強風可以摧毀建筑物，但水是颶風中最致命的部分。而風暴的類別并不能告訴你它將引發(fā)的洪水。

"My number one message to people is to focus less on wind and more on water," says Jamie Rhome, a senior forecaster at the National Hurricane Center. "The map tells you very little about storm surge or rain, which are consistently the deadliest effects of hurricanes."

國家颶風中心的高級預報員杰米·羅姆說:“我給人們的首要信息是少關注風多關注水。”“地圖告訴你的關于風暴潮或降雨的信息非常少，而這一直是颶風造成的最致命的影響。”

Storm surge is water pushed up onto coastal land by the hurricane. The National Hurricane Center publishes storm surge forecast maps that show which areas are in danger, and how much water could arrive with the storm.

風暴潮是颶風把海水推到海岸的陸地上。國家颶風中心發(fā)布了風暴潮預測地圖，顯示哪些地區(qū)處于危險之中，以及有多少水會隨著風暴到達。

Unfortunately, storm surge and rain maps do not include local information about where to go and how to prepare. That's because local emergency managers are in charge of deciding when to recommend evacuations, where to set up shelters and how to manage evacuation routes.

不幸的是，風暴潮和降雨地圖不包括當?shù)氐男畔ⅲP于去哪里和如何準備。這是因為當?shù)氐膽惫芾砣藛T負責決定何時建議疏散，在哪里設立避難所，以及如何管理疏散路線。

When hurricane season begins in early summer, check with your county or city emergency department to find out whether you're in an evacuation zone, and what your options are if you decide to leave your home.

當颶風季節(jié)在初夏開始時，向你所在的縣或市應急部門查詢你是否處于疏散區(qū)，以及如果你決定離開你的家，你有什么選擇。

"Hurricane risks are different for different people," explains Barbara Millet, the director of the University of Miami's User Experience Lab. It's currently very difficult for citizens to get all the information they need when a hurricane is headed their way.

邁阿密大學用戶體驗實驗室的主任芭芭拉·米勒解釋說:“不同的人面臨的颶風風險是不同的。”目前，當颶風向他們襲來時，市民很難獲得他們需要的所有信息。