南極變暖的速度是全球平均速度的3倍

南極變暖的速度是全球平均速度的3倍

The South Pole has been warming more than three times faster than the global average over the past 30 years, according to a new study.

根據(jù)一項(xiàng)新的研究，在過(guò)去的30年里，南極變暖的速度是全球平均速度的3倍多。

Researchers argue that it’s unlikely these warming trends are the result of natural climate change alone, suggesting that human-made climate change appears to have played a part. The study was published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

研究人員認(rèn)為，這些變暖趨勢(shì)不太可能僅僅是自然氣候變化的結(jié)果，表明人為造成的氣候變化似乎起了一定作用。這項(xiàng)研究發(fā)表在《自然氣候變化》雜志上。

Researchers at the South Pole station in Antarctica.NOAA Photo Library [(CC BY 2.0)] / Flickr

The pole, the most isolated spot on Earth, is located deep in Antarctica. Average temperatures range from -60 degrees C (-76 F) during winter to -20 C (-4 F) in summer. Researchers found that between 1989 and 2018, the South Pole warmed by about 1.8 degrees C at a rate of about 0.6 degrees C per decade. That was three times the global average.

南極是地球上最孤立的地方，位于南極洲的深處。冬季平均氣溫為零下60攝氏度(零下76華氏度)，夏季為零下20攝氏度(零下4華氏度)。研究人員發(fā)現(xiàn)，在1989年至2018年間，南極溫度上升了約1.8攝氏度，速度約為每十年0.6攝氏度。這是全球平均水平的三倍。

Researchers have been aware for years that coastal areas of Antarctica are warming and losing sea ice, but they had thought that the South Pole was isolated and protected from rising climate temperatures.

多年來(lái)，研究人員一直意識(shí)到南極洲沿海地區(qū)的海冰正在變暖和消失，但他們?cè)J(rèn)為，南極是孤立的，受到了氣候溫度上升的保護(hù)。

"This highlights that global warming is global and it's making its way to these remote places," Kyle Clem, postdoctoral research fellow in Climate Science at the University of Wellington, and lead author of the study, told CNN.

“這凸顯了全球變暖是全球性的，而且正在向這些偏遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)蔓延，”惠靈頓大學(xué)氣候科學(xué)博士后研究員、該研究的主要作者凱爾·克萊姆告訴CNN。

For the study, Clem and his team analyzed weather data and used climate model simulations. They found that the main cause of the rising temperatures was changes in ocean surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific Ocean.

在這項(xiàng)研究中，克萊姆和他的團(tuán)隊(duì)分析了天氣數(shù)據(jù)并使用了氣候模型模擬。他們發(fā)現(xiàn)，溫度上升的主要原因是熱帶太平洋西部海洋表面溫度的變化。

"It is wild. It is the most remote place on the planet. The significance is how extreme temperatures swing and shift over the Antarctic interior, and the mechanisms that drive them are linked 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles) north of the continent on the tropical Pacific," Clem said.

“這是野生的。它是地球上最偏遠(yuǎn)的地方。它的意義在于極端溫度是如何在南極內(nèi)部擺動(dòng)和轉(zhuǎn)移的，以及驅(qū)動(dòng)這種變化的機(jī)制與南極大陸北部10000公里(6200英里)的熱帶太平洋有關(guān)，”克萊姆說(shuō)。

Blaming Climate Change

歸咎于氣候變化

In the early decades after 1957, when measurements were first recorded at the South Pole, average temperatures remained steady or declined. Near the end of the 20th century, temperatures began to rise.

在1957年之后的最初幾十年里，南極的平均氣溫保持穩(wěn)定或下降。20世紀(jì)末，氣溫開(kāi)始上升。

In their models, the researchers compared the recent warming rate to all possible 30-year temperature trends that could happen naturally without human influence. They found that the 1.8 degrees of warming was higher than 99.9% of all possible trends without human influence — meaning the recent warming is “extremely unlikely under natural conditions, albeit not impossible,” Clem says.

在他們的模型中，研究人員比較了最近的變暖速度和所有可能在沒(méi)有人類(lèi)影響的情況下自然發(fā)生的30年溫度趨勢(shì)。他們發(fā)現(xiàn)1.8度的變暖比沒(méi)有人類(lèi)影響的所有可能趨勢(shì)的99.9%都要高——這意味著最近的變暖“在自然條件下極其不可能，盡管不是不可能，”克萊姆說(shuō)。

“The temperature variability at the South Pole is so extreme it currently masks human-caused effects,” Clem writes in The Guardian. “The Antarctic interior is one of the few places left on Earth where human-caused warming cannot be precisely determined, which means it is a challenge to say whether, or for how long, the warming will continue.”

克萊姆在《衛(wèi)報(bào)》上寫(xiě)道:“南極的溫度變化如此極端，以至于現(xiàn)在掩蓋了人類(lèi)造成的影響。”“南極內(nèi)陸地區(qū)是地球上為數(shù)不多的幾個(gè)無(wú)法精確確定人為原因造成氣候變暖的地區(qū)之一，這意味著要確定氣候變暖是否會(huì)持續(xù)，或?qū)⒊掷m(xù)多久，是一個(gè)挑戰(zhàn)。”