盧布貶值 典型的貨幣崩盤

The Russian economy was already in the running forhaving the worst year in 2014, sandwichedsomewhere between Congressional Democrats andSony Entertainment Pictures.

對于俄羅斯經(jīng)濟而言，2014年很可能成為最糟糕的一年。它跟輸?shù)袅酥衅谶x舉的美國民主黨人，和遭到黑客攻擊的索尼影視娛樂公司(Sony Entertainment Pictures)可謂難兄難弟。

Then the price of oil—the commodity upon whichthe Russian economy is built—began to fall sharply,draining the nation’s economy of foreign money andcrimping its growth. This dynamic drove the ruble sharply lower, culminating in an 11% dropon Monday, which forced Russia’s central bank to raise interest rates by a whopping 650 basispoints, all but assuring a deep and painful recession in 2015.

雪上加霜的是，作為俄羅斯經(jīng)濟支柱的石油業(yè)又面臨價格暴跌，造成俄羅斯外匯流失而進一步妨礙了經(jīng)濟增長。這種局面推動盧布迅速貶值。本周一，盧布重挫11%，迫使俄羅斯央行加息650個基點，但俄羅斯在2015年仍將難逃嚴(yán)重而痛苦的經(jīng)濟衰退。

But with strict sanctions in place against Russian companies—in response to Russia’sannexation of Crimea and hostilities with Ukraine earlier this year—and the continuous fall inoil prices, the interest rate hike did not satisfy traders, who sent the the ruble tumbling another8% following the announcement.

占領(lǐng)克里米亞和烏克蘭沖突后，俄羅斯遭到制裁，再加上油價不斷滑落，加息并沒有讓投資者感到滿意。俄羅斯央行宣布上述決定后，盧布又下跌了8%。

The fall of the ruble has been swift and devastating. Carl Weinberg, chief economist at HighFrequency Economics, referred to the currency’s plummet as “an unrecoverable spiral” in anote to clients on Tuesday. He argues that what we are seeing now is a classic “currencycollapse,” brought on by both economic factors like sanctions and falling oil prices as well asfinancial factors like the Russian central bank printing money to help state-owned oil companyRosneft cover its debt denominated in foreign currencies.

這次盧布貶值來的突然，而且極具破壞性。周二，全球經(jīng)濟研究機構(gòu)High Frequency Economics首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家卡爾o溫伯格在寫給客戶的報告中稱，盧布的直線下墜“不可逆轉(zhuǎn)”。他認(rèn)為，目前的情況是典型的“貨幣崩盤”，誘因既有遭到制裁和油價下滑等經(jīng)濟因素，也有金融因素，比如俄羅斯央行通過增發(fā)貨幣來幫助國有企業(yè)俄羅斯石油公司(Rosneft)償還以外幣為主的債務(wù)。

What makes the situation in Russia that much worse is that the nation’s companies, bothprivate and state-owned, hold $670 billion in debt denominated in foreign currencies. This debtis about one-third the size of the entire Russian economy, and it will become impossible forRussian companies to service it if the ruble continues to fall. Writes Weinberg:

更嚴(yán)重的問題在于俄羅斯的私營和國有企業(yè)共持有6700億美元外幣債務(wù)，約占俄羅斯總經(jīng)濟規(guī)模的三分之一，如果盧布繼續(xù)下挫，俄羅斯公司將無法償還這些債務(wù)。溫伯格寫道：

The amount of rubles local borrowers have to give up to pay off foreign debt obligations justincreased by 20 percent overnight, by 50 percent since the start of this month, and by 90%since the start of November…. The effective interest rate on foreign borrowing for Russians isover 6000%, enough to kill any economy.

為了償還外債，俄羅斯借款人需要支付的盧布在一夜之間增加了20%，和本月初相比上升了50%，和11月初相比則提高了90%……俄羅斯人負(fù)擔(dān)的外債有效利率超過6000%，這足以把任何經(jīng)濟體置于死地。

Normally, when countries find themselves in a situation like Russia’s, they turn to the IMF, whichwould provide funding and debt restructuring in exchange for the enactment of economicreforms. But as University of Oregon economist Tim Duy writes, it’s tough to see either the IMFswooping in to help an international pariah like Russia or Vladimir Putin submitting to anyreforms imposed by the West.

通常，如果有國家陷入俄羅斯這樣的境地，它們就會向國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)求援。后者則會為經(jīng)濟改革為條件為其提供資金并進行債務(wù)重組。然而，就像俄勒岡大學(xué)(University of Oregon)經(jīng)濟學(xué)家蒂姆o杜伊在他的文章中所說，很難想象IMF會出面幫助俄羅斯這樣的國際社會“棄兒”，而弗拉基米爾o普京也很難屈從于西方的任何改革要求。

So, how will Russia’s currency crisis affect the U.S.? It’s tough to say for sure. A recession inRussia won’t have much of an effect on the American economy, as the two nations conductvery little trade with each other. But make no mistake, the crisis in Russia today is at leastpartially a result of the diplomatic policies of the United States. We are seeing the kind ofeconomic misery the U.S. and Europe aimed to inflict on Russia as a result of its aggressionin Ukraine.

那么，俄羅斯的貨幣危機對美國有何影響呢?很難下定論。俄羅斯經(jīng)濟衰退不會對美國經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生多大影響，因為兩國間的貿(mào)易往來非常少。但毫無疑問，俄羅斯眼前的危機至少部分源于美國的外交政策。我們看到的這場經(jīng)濟災(zāi)難是美國與歐洲針對俄羅斯對烏克蘭采取的行動所造成的。

The question now is whether the economic pain will convince Russia to back down, or doubledown, in Eastern Europe. Weinberg, for one, worries that Putin will instruct Russian companiesto renege on their foreign obligations. This could spell bad news for banks and investorsacross Europe and the U.S. that have loaned money to Russian companies, and it could allowRussia’s financial instability to infect other emerging markets and the already shaky E.U.economy.

現(xiàn)在的問題是，經(jīng)濟上的困難是會迫使俄羅斯在東歐做出讓步，還是會讓它變本加厲。溫伯格的擔(dān)心之一是普京會授意俄羅斯公司拒不償還外債。對已經(jīng)向俄羅斯企業(yè)提供貸款的歐洲和美國銀行及投資者來說，這將是個壞消息，而且可能讓俄羅斯的不穩(wěn)定的金融局勢蔓延到其他新興經(jīng)濟體，同時影響已經(jīng)搖搖欲墜的歐盟經(jīng)濟。(財富中文網(wǎng))