中國(guó)股市里人人都在投機(jī)

There’s mania in China right now. Stock marketmania. It’s a bull market—niu shi— and people areexcited.

一種狂熱正席卷中國(guó)。中國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入牛市，群情沸涌。

“It’s still not crazy, not crazy,” said an investmentbanker working in Beijing, who didn’t want his nameused because his bosses don’t like him talking aboutthe crazy stock market. “These days market risestoo fast,” he reflected, “but still many of my friendsthink the market is undervalued in many sectors.”

在北京工作的一位投行人士說：“這還不算瘋狂。”他不希望我們?cè)趫?bào)道中提及其名字，因?yàn)槔习宀幌矚g他談?wù)摨偪竦墓墒?。他說：“這些天市場(chǎng)上升的過快，但我的許多朋友仍然認(rèn)為很多板塊都被低估了。”

The rally has been fast and furious. It started this summer when the state-run Xinhua newsagency started trumpeting stocks, publishing eight reports over four days about low valuations.Other state media said a strong stock market should reflect a strong China. Right on cue,stocks took off in September and have never looked back. Boosted by an interest rate cut, theShanghai market is up 25% in just the past month. It closed today at its highest level sinceNovember 2010 after gaining 50% since the summer.

中國(guó)股市上漲的又快又猛。這波行情始于今年夏天，也就是新華社開始為股市做宣傳的時(shí)候。當(dāng)時(shí)新華社在四天內(nèi)發(fā)表了八篇報(bào)道，內(nèi)容都和股市的低估值有關(guān)。其他官方媒體則認(rèn)為，強(qiáng)勁的股市可以體現(xiàn)出中華強(qiáng)盛。隨即，中國(guó)股市從9月份開始攀升，而且再也沒有回落過。受央行降息鼓舞，僅上個(gè)月滬市就上揚(yáng)了25%。周三收盤時(shí)，上證指數(shù)創(chuàng)下2010年11月以來的新高，今夏以來的漲幅高達(dá)50%。

“I would argue everyone in China is a speculative trader,” says Fraser Howie, co-author of RedCapitalism who’s worked as a broker and trader in Asian markets for 15 years. “Fundamentalsmatter far less than other markets. You see this by the violence of the moves in China.” Hepoints out that nothing drastic in the outlook for China has changed: the new administration’sreform packages are just now being implemented; GDP forecasts have barely budged; thosebearish on the housing market haven’t changed their tune.

《紅色資本主義》(Red Capitalism)的作者之一弗雷澤o豪伊說：“我認(rèn)為，中國(guó)股市里的每個(gè)人都在投機(jī)。” 豪伊在亞洲市場(chǎng)做了15年的經(jīng)紀(jì)和交易工作。他指出：“基本面在中國(guó)的作用遠(yuǎn)低于其他市場(chǎng)。從中國(guó)股市的大起大落中就能看到這一點(diǎn)。” 豪伊認(rèn)為，中國(guó)的前景并未出現(xiàn)明顯變化：新一屆領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人剛剛開始實(shí)施改革，對(duì)GDP的預(yù)測(cè)幾乎未變，那些唱衰樓市的人依然持悲觀論調(diào)。

While the long-term outlook hasn’t changed, the stock market is up 25% in a month asinvestors get excited by gains following gains. Margin accounts using borrowed money havemultiplied, as have new stock accounts.

盡管長(zhǎng)期前景未變，但一漲再漲的行情讓投資者感到興奮，中國(guó)股市在一個(gè)月內(nèi)上揚(yáng)了25%。融資交易賬戶倍增，新開立的股票交易賬戶也是如此。

Ge Tianyu is a graduate student who this month opened a margin account, allowing him todouble his bet using the brokerage’s money. He waited a little while before opening it, he says,to make sure the bull market was in full swing. He uses technical parameters when he buysstocks, and never holds them longer than three days. By the end of last week, he says he hadnotched a 50% profit. “Speculative bull markets can make maximum profits,” says the 26-year-old.

26歲的葛天宇(音譯)是一名大學(xué)畢業(yè)生，這個(gè)月他開了一個(gè)融資交易賬戶，從而得以使用券商的資金，把自己的交易規(guī)模擴(kuò)大一倍。葛天宇說，開這個(gè)賬戶前他花了一點(diǎn)時(shí)間來確認(rèn)市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)全面進(jìn)入牛市。他參考技術(shù)指標(biāo)來買入股票，持有時(shí)間從不超過三天。他說，截至上周末，自己已經(jīng)賺了50%，“投機(jī)性牛市能帶來最高的收益。”

Four decades his senior, Wang Shuying trades stocks on her Meizu phone from home inBeijing. She puts about 60% of her money in stock funds; the rest she trades herself. Shedoesn’t focus on the bigger economy, she says, as it has little effect on the stocks she buys.She sticks to the industry she knows best: nuclear. Retired from the China National NuclearCorporation, she bought 6,800 shares in SUFA Technology, Shenzhen-traded company thatmakes valves for nuclear plants. In September she paid 16.80 RMB a share; today it trades at31 RMB.

66歲的王淑英(音譯)用自己的魅族手機(jī)在北京的家里炒股。她用60%的資金購(gòu)買股票基金，剩余資金自己操作。她說，自己不關(guān)注整體經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)，因?yàn)檫@對(duì)她買的股票沒什么影響。從中國(guó)核工業(yè)集團(tuán)退休的王淑英選擇了自己最了解的行業(yè)：核電。她買了6800股中核科技，這家深交所上市公司為核電廠制造閥門。9月份王淑英買入這些股票的價(jià)格是每股16.80元，現(xiàn)在的股價(jià)為31元。

She doesn’t think the bull market will last, but then again, she doesn’t much care: she’ll sellsome of her stock by the end of the year hoping to earn a tidy 100% profit.

王淑英認(rèn)為牛市不會(huì)持續(xù)很久，但她同樣并不在意。她打算在年底前拋掉一些股票，并且希望盈利幅度能達(dá)到100%。

Wang Bin works for the state-owned energy giant China National Petroleum Corp., CNPC. He’sbusy with his job, but when stocks go crazy, like they have recently, he starts tuning in. Wang, 36, pays closest attention to companies aligned with China’s industrial policies, such as nuclearpower and artificial intelligence. Normally he holds stocks for half a year, but it’s not alwayseasy. A couple months ago he bought shares of Shenzhen Aotexun, an electric powerequipment firm, which have since tumbled by 10%. With the rest of the stock market rising,he’s a little miffed, but not deterred. “I think this is a field that has industrial policy support— itis no problem,” he says.

36歲的王斌(音譯)是國(guó)有能源龍頭企業(yè)中石油的員工。他工作很忙，但當(dāng)股市像最近一樣瘋漲時(shí)，他就會(huì)出手。王斌最關(guān)注符合國(guó)家產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的個(gè)股，比如核電和人工智能。通常他會(huì)持有半年時(shí)間，但情況不總是那么順利。幾個(gè)月前他買進(jìn)了電力設(shè)備公司奧特迅，目前這只股票下跌了10%?？粗渌善惫?jié)節(jié)攀升，王斌有點(diǎn)兒惱火，但并不害怕。他說：“我覺得這個(gè)領(lǐng)域有產(chǎn)業(yè)政策支持，沒問題。”

When Western readers hear that retail investors account for 60-80% of the trading in China,they might think of the mom and pop investors portrayed at home—the grandmas investingtheir pensions, the local manager investing for his kid’s college fund.

當(dāng)西方讀者聽說個(gè)人投資者占中國(guó)股市成交額的60-80%時(shí)，他們可能會(huì)想到自己的那些股民同胞——用養(yǎng)老金投資的老奶奶，把孩子上大學(xué)的錢投入股市的經(jīng)理人。

While a sliver of that exists in China, the author Howie has written repeatedly that the Chinesepress omits the fact that stocks are a rich person’s game in the country.

雖然中國(guó)也有一些這樣的投資者，但豪伊反復(fù)寫到，中國(guó)媒體忽略了這樣一個(gè)事實(shí)，那就是中國(guó)股市是富人的游戲。

Seventy five percent of the individual stock accounts in China have less than 100,000 yuan($16,000). The accounts with upwards of $1 million or more have a far greater push on themarket. “When you start looking at value of those bigger accounts, the small investors’ effect isnot as impressive as first appears,” he says.

在中國(guó)，資金少于10萬元的個(gè)人股票賬戶占75%。而規(guī)模超過600萬元，甚至更大的賬戶對(duì)市場(chǎng)的影響要比前者大得多。豪伊說：“看到這些大戶的資金量時(shí)，小散戶的作用就不像乍看上去那么顯眼了。”

In the last bull market of 2007, when the Chinese market more than doubled in just sevenmonths, one of Howie’s colleagues at the brokerage CLSA spent a week asking everyone hecould find how they were investing. The number of those actually trading was minimal, buteveryone had a story about a friend striking it rich.

2007年的上一個(gè)牛市中，中國(guó)股市在短短七個(gè)月里上漲了一倍多。豪伊在里昂證券(CLSA)的一位同事花了一個(gè)星期時(shí)間做調(diào)查，逢人就問對(duì)方如何進(jìn)行的投資。真正進(jìn)行了交易的人非常少，但每個(gè)人都說自己的朋友賺了大錢。

One of the places you can find some skepticism about stocks’ recent rise, ironically enough, isthe very state-run press that earlier stoked enthusiasm. Last week Xinhua cited anonymousresearchers predicting a pullback. A copy editor at the English-language China Daily, HuangXiangyang, wrote a column wondering why China’s bull markets always seem to fizzle out soonafter they start. “Based on global experience, returns on stocks are still closely correlated withcorporate growth and innovation,” he wrote. “That may explain why bull markets in Chinanever last more than two years, compared with as many as 17 years on Wall Street.”

充滿諷刺意味的是，對(duì)股市近期上漲提出一些疑問的正是此前激起人們炒股熱情的官方媒體。新華社上周報(bào)道，未具名研究人士預(yù)計(jì)股市將回落?！吨袊?guó)日?qǐng)?bào)》編輯黃向陽(yáng)也發(fā)表專欄文章，對(duì)中國(guó)牛市行情似乎總是在開始不久后便草草收?qǐng)鎏岢鲑|(zhì)疑。他寫道：“全球經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明，股票回報(bào)率仍和企業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)與創(chuàng)新緊密相關(guān)。這也許能解釋為什么中國(guó)的牛市延續(xù)時(shí)間從未超過兩年，而美國(guó)能出現(xiàn)長(zhǎng)達(dá)17年的牛市。”

Even so, he called this gold rush too good to miss. “In this market you do not have to buy andhold, as value investors are supposed to do. All you have to do is take the pulse of governmentpolicies and speculate on them.”

盡管如此，黃向陽(yáng)仍認(rèn)為這波絕佳行情不容錯(cuò)過：“在這個(gè)市場(chǎng)，大家不需要像價(jià)值投資者那樣買入并持有股票。所要做的只是把握好政府的政策脈搏，并進(jìn)行投機(jī)。”

Easy enough, for those able to get into the game.

對(duì)那些玩得起這場(chǎng)游戲的人來說，這的確易如反掌。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))