中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)是個(gè)泡沫嗎？

The global economic recovery has drawn support from a swift rebound in China. Now, investors and economists wonder whether a bursting Chinese property bubble could put China's economy in a bind.
中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速反彈支撐了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。如今，投資者和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們都想知道，中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)泡沫一旦破裂，會(huì)不會(huì)讓中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入困境。

Over the past week, China's cabinet has announced measures aimed at cracking down on property speculators, including tougher down-payment requirements for second and third homes. This comes after China reported an 11.7% rise in urban home prices last month from a year earlier, its fastest gain in five years.
過(guò)去一周，中國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)院宣布了打擊房地產(chǎn)投機(jī)的“國(guó)十條”，包括為二套房和三套房設(shè)定更高的首付比例。這一舉措出臺(tái)之前，中國(guó)宣布上個(gè)月城市房?jī)r(jià)同比上漲11.7%，為五年來(lái)最大同比漲幅。

'This is the critical policy point that finally cracks the Chinese property market,' declared Morgan Stanley China strategist Jerry Lou.
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)中國(guó)市場(chǎng)策略師婁岡(Jerry Lou)說(shuō)，這是至關(guān)重要的政策切入點(diǎn)，最終給了中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)一擊。

All this could be seen as bolstering the case for short-seller James Chanos. The name of Mr. Chanos's $6 billion hedge fund, Kynikos Associates LP, means 'cynic' in Greek-appropriate since the New York-based money manager earlier this year made himself the world's best-known cynic when it comes to China's growth story.
這一切可以看作是支持了做空大師查諾斯(James Chanos)的觀(guān)點(diǎn)。查諾斯的對(duì)沖基金Kynikos Associates LP規(guī)模為60億美元，基金的名字在希臘語(yǔ)中意思是“憤世嫉俗”──這個(gè)意思很貼切，因?yàn)檫@位紐約資本經(jīng)營(yíng)者今年早些時(shí)候憑借對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方面的論斷成為全球知名的憤世嫉俗者。

'What we're talking about is a world-class, if not the, world-class property bubble,' Mr. Chanos said in an interview with Charlie Rose, comparing conditions in Chinese cities to Dubai and Miami. He predicts the bubble will begin to unravel later this year.
查諾斯接受著名電視節(jié)目主持人查理•羅斯(Charlie Rose)采訪(fǎng)時(shí)說(shuō)，我們所說(shuō)的是一次世界級(jí)的房地產(chǎn)泡沫，如果算不上世界最大的房地產(chǎn)泡沫的話(huà)。他將中國(guó)各大城市的狀況比作迪拜和邁阿密。他預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)的泡沫將在今年晚些時(shí)候開(kāi)始破裂。

Mr. Chanos argues that China's lending spree during the financial crisis has pumped too much money into real estate, and that housing prices have surpassed affordability.
查諾斯認(rèn)為，中國(guó)在金融危機(jī)期間的放貸狂潮向房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)注入了過(guò)多資金，房?jī)r(jià)已經(jīng)超過(guò)人們的承受能力。

Among the counter-arguments: China's growing wealth feeds a long-term demand to upgrade the country's housing stock, and regulators put a tight cap on loan-to-value ratios, limiting the downside of any bubble. Some note that China's government, using measures such as those announced in the last week, has long avoided a crash in housing prices.
與之相對(duì)的論點(diǎn)包括：中國(guó)的有錢(qián)人越來(lái)越多，助長(zhǎng)了改善住房的長(zhǎng)期需求，同時(shí)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)嚴(yán)控貸款成數(shù)，限制了泡沫的負(fù)面影響。一些人指出，中國(guó)政府利用種種措施（諸如上周宣布的），長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)避免了房?jī)r(jià)暴跌。

Those inclined to favor Mr. Chanos's analysis-or who at least believe that some kind of correction is likely-could try to emulate his strategy. He is betting on a decline in the price of Hong Kong-listed Chinese property developers and other companies linked to China's property market, such as those exporting cement and copper to China.
如果贊同查諾斯的分析──或是至少相信有可能出現(xiàn)某種程度的調(diào)整──可以試試仿效他的策略。查諾斯正在做空在香港上市的中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商以及與中國(guó)房市有關(guān)的其他公司，比如向中國(guó)出口水泥和銅的公司。

However, he hasn't specified company names and didn't reply to a request for information on his positions.
不過(guò)，查諾斯沒(méi)有透露具體的公司名稱(chēng)，也沒(méi)有回應(yīng)提供頭寸信息的要求。

Below are three companies that reflect exposure to the China property story. All three trade in Hong Kong, making them accessible to international investors. There's no evidence that Mr. Chanos has a position in any of them. But those who believe China's property market is heading for further trouble might consider shunning them from their portfolios, or taking a short position on them-that is, selling borrowed shares with a view to buying them back at a lower price. (Of course, those who take the opposite view might look for opportunities to pick them up on the cheap.)
以下三家公司與中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)息息相關(guān)。三家公司均在香港上市，可供外國(guó)投資者交易。沒(méi)有證據(jù)顯示查諾斯擁有任何一家公司的頭寸。不過(guò)認(rèn)為中國(guó)房產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)將步入困境者可以考慮避免在投資組合中包括這些公司，或者做空它們──即出售借來(lái)的股份以在更低的價(jià)位買(mǎi)回。（當(dāng)然，持相反看法的人或許可以尋求趁低吸納的機(jī)會(huì)。）

Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd. is a highly indebted company with broad market exposure and aggressive, expansion-minded management, qualities that make it vulnerable to an earnings shortfall.
恒大地產(chǎn)集團(tuán)有限公司(Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd.)：這是一家擁有高負(fù)債、寬敞口的公司，風(fēng)格激進(jìn)，強(qiáng)調(diào)擴(kuò)張。這些特點(diǎn)使它很容易出現(xiàn)利潤(rùn)短缺。

Evergrande continued its rapid expansion last year, growing its land bank by 30%. It had a difficult time bringing its Nov. 2009 initial public offering to market, and since listing, its shares have dropped by about a third. It's also gone back to the capital markets quickly for more cash, paying a hefty 13% interest rate on $1.35 billion of U.S. dollar bonds issued in January and April this year that come due in 2015. Its shares trade at 40.4 times 2009 earnings and 5.9 times 2010 expected earnings, a wide gap indicating the volatility of its earnings stream.
恒大地產(chǎn)在去年繼續(xù)快速擴(kuò)張，土地儲(chǔ)備數(shù)量增長(zhǎng)30%。2009年11月舉行首次公開(kāi)募股時(shí)遭遇不順，而自上市以來(lái)，其股價(jià)已經(jīng)跌去約三分之一。后來(lái)它很快又回到資本市場(chǎng)籌集更多現(xiàn)金，在今年1月份和4月份發(fā)行了13.5億美元的美元債券，債券到期時(shí)間在2015年，利率高達(dá)13%。相對(duì)于2009年利潤(rùn)的市盈率為40.4倍，相對(duì)于2010年預(yù)期利潤(rùn)的市盈率為5.9倍，在這個(gè)巨大的差別中，恒大地產(chǎn)利潤(rùn)的波動(dòng)性可見(jiàn)一斑。

Agile Property Holdings Ltd. is a play on Hainan, a free-wheeling, tropical island off China's southern coast that is in many ways China's Miami.
雅居樂(lè)地產(chǎn)控股有限公司(Agile Property Holdings Ltd)：海南題材的體現(xiàn)者。海南是中國(guó)南方一個(gè)生活閑散的熱帶島嶼，從很多方面來(lái)看都可以說(shuō)是中國(guó)版的邁阿密。

A lush environment and nice beaches make it a playground for new-money Chinese and a prime target for speculators betting on luxury properties. In March's property price data, two cities in Hainan, Sanya and Haikou, set the fastest pace, rising 53.9% and 52.1% respectively. The Chinese government helped spark the speculative fever by laying out plans in January to build Hainan into an international tourist destination.
草木蔥蘢的環(huán)境和宜人的海灘，使海南成為了中國(guó)新富階層的樂(lè)土和豪宅炒客的首選目標(biāo)。3月份數(shù)據(jù)顯示，海南三亞和?？诘姆?jī)r(jià)漲幅為全國(guó)最高，分別達(dá)到53.9%和52.1%。中國(guó)政府在1月份出臺(tái)規(guī)劃，要把海南建成國(guó)際旅游島，一定程度上起到了引燃投機(jī)浪潮的作用。

Agile has close to 30% of its landbank and 2010 contracted sale tied up in a single project, Hainan Clearwater Bay, according to Royal Bank of Scotland analysts, tying Agile's fortunes closely to Hainan's fate. Its shares are trading at 15.1 times 2009 actual earnings and 9.8 times 2010 expected earnings.
蘇格蘭皇家銀行(Royal Bank of Scotland)的分析師們表示，雅樂(lè)居的土地儲(chǔ)備和2010年預(yù)售合同中，有30%都同一個(gè)項(xiàng)目有關(guān)，即海南清水灣。這讓雅樂(lè)居的命運(yùn)同海南的命運(yùn)緊密地聯(lián)系在一起。雅樂(lè)居相對(duì)于2009年實(shí)際利潤(rùn)的市盈率是15.1倍，相對(duì)于2010年預(yù)期利潤(rùn)的市盈率為9.8倍。

Fueling much of the boom in property prices has been easy money from Chinese state lenders. China's government pushed banks to lend record volumes of credit during the global financial crisis to keep the economy moving, some of which could go bad in a property crisis.
房?jī)r(jià)上漲在很大程度上是中國(guó)國(guó)有銀行的充裕資金造成的。在全球金融危機(jī)期間，中國(guó)政府推動(dòng)銀行發(fā)放了規(guī)?？涨暗馁J款，以保持經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。如果房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)生危機(jī)，一部分貸款有可能淪為壞賬。

China Construction Bank Corp. is the country's top mortgage lender and a major lender to infrastructure projects. Its residential mortgage book grew 41.4% last year.
中國(guó)建設(shè)銀行(China Construction Bank Corp.)：中國(guó)最大的抵押貸款商，也是基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施領(lǐng)域的一個(gè)重要貸款人。去年其住房抵押貸款規(guī)模增長(zhǎng)了41.4%。

Of the 1.54 trillion yuan ($225.61 billion) in infrastructure loans on its books, 351 billion yuan were made in 2009. Both loan categories could come under stress if there is weakness in the property sector and borrowers have trouble repaying. Many local governments and their investment arms depend heavily on land sales for revenue and could default on loans if that income stream dries up. A deteriorating balance sheet could be enough to offset the earnings boost that CCB and other Chinese banks enjoy from a central bank-mandated spread between lending and deposit rates. Its shares trade at 11.1 times 2009 earnings and 8.1 times 2010 expected earnings, roughly in line with peers.
建行資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上1.54萬(wàn)億元（合2,256.1億美元）的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施貸款中，有3,510億元是在2009年發(fā)放的。如果樓市陷入疲軟、借款人發(fā)生還款困難，那么兩類(lèi)貸款都有可能承受壓力。很多地方政府及其投資機(jī)構(gòu)的收入嚴(yán)重依賴(lài)于土地銷(xiāo)售，如果這個(gè)收入來(lái)源陷入枯竭，它們的貸款就有可能發(fā)生違約。建行和其他中資銀行的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表如果出現(xiàn)惡化，它們從央行強(qiáng)制規(guī)定的存貸款息差當(dāng)中獲得的利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)，或許足以被完全抹去。建行相對(duì)于2009年利潤(rùn)的市盈率為11.1倍，相對(duì)于2010年預(yù)期利潤(rùn)的市盈率為8.1倍，與同行大體相當(dāng)。