美歐再保險(xiǎn)公司今年盈利將頗為豐厚

Investors in reinsurance companies look set to benefit from a wave of share buy-backs and special dividends following an unusually quiet US hurricane season and a strong rally in financial markets.

由于今年美國颶風(fēng)季節(jié)異常平靜，且金融市場出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁反彈，再保險(xiǎn)公司的投資者似乎必將受益于一波股票回購和特別股息。

As the hurrricane season draws to a close this week, the lack of big storms making landfall in the US this year has pushed reinsurers' catastrophe losses to historically low levels.

本周，隨著颶風(fēng)季節(jié)進(jìn)入尾聲，美國今年尚未有大型風(fēng)暴登陸，致使再保險(xiǎn)商的災(zāi)難損失降至歷史低位。

At the same time, bond markets – where many insurers and reinsurers are invested – have recovered strongly, leaving the industry in a better state of health than many had forecast six months ago.

與此同時(shí)，眾多保險(xiǎn)商和再保險(xiǎn)商投資的債券市場強(qiáng)勁反彈，使保險(xiǎn)業(yè)的資產(chǎn)健康狀況比6個(gè)月前許多人所預(yù)測的更為良好。

As a result, analysts and executives expect some companies in the US, Bermuda and London to follow the example of Munich Re, and return capital to shareholders. “There is going to be a lot more interest in capital returns on the basis that 2009 is likely to be a very profitable year,” said Thomas Dorner, analyst at Oriel Securities in London. “There have been few large losses and investment returns have been spectacular.”

因此，分析師和高管都預(yù)期，美國、百慕大和倫敦的一些公司將效仿慕尼黑再保險(xiǎn)(Munich Re)，向股東返還資本。“2009年很可能將是盈利豐厚的一年，有鑒于此，人們對返還資本的興趣將會大增，”倫敦Oriel Securities的分析師托馬斯•杜諾(Thomas Dorner)表示。“幾乎沒有出現(xiàn)什么重大損失，且投資回報(bào)相當(dāng)可觀。”

Munich Re, the world's biggest reinsurer, launched a €1bn ($1.5bn) share buy-back scheme at the start of October.

世界最大的再保險(xiǎn)公司慕尼黑再保險(xiǎn)于10月初推出了總額10億歐元（合15億美元）的股票回購計(jì)劃。

Last week, Aspen Insurance Holdings and PartnerRe, two US-listed Bermudan reinsurers, reported large jumps in third-quarter profits. But Chris O'Kane, chief executive of Aspen, said the industry faced a tough market with few growth opportunities. This is because of premium rates stagnating or declining in many areas, while the supply of insurance and reinsurance remains high.

上周，兩家在美國上市的百慕大再保險(xiǎn)公司——Aspen Insurance Holdings和PartnerRe——均宣布第三季度利潤出現(xiàn)大幅躍升。但Aspen首席執(zhí)行官克里斯•歐凱恩(Chris O'Kane)稱，再保險(xiǎn)行業(yè)面臨嚴(yán)峻的市場環(huán)境，增長機(jī)會很少。這是因?yàn)樵S多領(lǐng)域的保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率停滯不前或出現(xiàn)下降，與此同時(shí)保險(xiǎn)和再保險(xiǎn)的供應(yīng)依然偏高。

“Returns on equity have been in the 15-20 per cent range and that sort of money coming in across the industry cannot all be put to work, therefore you are likely to see capital returns to shareholders,” he said.

“股本回報(bào)率在15%至20%之間，整個(gè)行業(yè)如此規(guī)模的資金進(jìn)賬，不可能全部得到投資，因此你很可能會看到向股東返還資本的現(xiàn)象，”他表示。

Hiscox, Amlin and Catlin – the Lloyd's of London insurers and reinsurers – also reported big jumps in interim profits, back in August.

今年8月，勞合社(Lloyd's of London)旗下的保險(xiǎn)和再保險(xiǎn)公司Hiscox，Amlin以及Catlin也都宣布中期利潤大幅躍升。