預(yù)測(cè)：中國(guó)鐵礦石進(jìn)口將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)

China's imports of iron ore will rise 28 per cent this year and by a further 12 per cent in 2010 as its demand for steel-making raw materials gathers strength, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

澳大利亞農(nóng)業(yè)資源經(jīng)濟(jì)局(Abare)預(yù)測(cè)，隨著對(duì)煉鋼原料的需求逐漸走強(qiáng)，2009年中國(guó)鐵礦石進(jìn)口總量將增加28%，2010年將再增加12%。

The forecasts are based on rising Chinese steel consumption driven by government funding for infrastructure projects and a greater availability of credit for private investment.

該預(yù)測(cè)基于中國(guó)鋼材消費(fèi)的增長(zhǎng)，其背后的推動(dòng)因素包括政府對(duì)基建項(xiàng)目的投資，以及私人投資更容易獲得信貸。

The Australian government economic research agency now expects China to import 568m tonnes of iron ore this year, after increasing its previous forecast by 7.8 per cent, while next year it expects imports to total 637m tonnes, up 20.4 per cent on its previous 529m tonne forecast.

作為澳大利亞政府經(jīng)濟(jì)研究機(jī)構(gòu)，Abare現(xiàn)在預(yù)測(cè)今年中國(guó)將進(jìn)口鐵礦石5.68億噸，較先前預(yù)測(cè)上調(diào)了7.8%。同時(shí)預(yù)測(cè)明年中國(guó)將進(jìn)口6.37億噸鐵礦石，比先前5.29億噸的預(yù)測(cè)增加了20.4%。

However, China is the sole country expected to see an increase in steel consumption this year with an increase of 4 per cent to 479m tonnes this year followed by a rise of 9 per cent to 522m tonnes in 2010. That increase will be matched by rising steel production in China, projected to increase 12.5 per cent to 565m tonnes this year and 8 per cent to 610m tonnes in 2010.

然而，中國(guó)是今年唯一有望增加鋼材消費(fèi)量的國(guó)家，今年將增加4%，至4.79億噸，2010年將增加9%，至5.22億噸。中國(guó)鋼材產(chǎn)量也將相應(yīng)提高，預(yù)計(jì)今年將提高12.5%，至5.65億噸，明年將提高8%，至6.10億噸。

But with China's steel stockpiles seemingly close to or at capacity, the agency said restocking in developed countries would be an important driver of steel demand.

但該機(jī)構(gòu)表示，由于中國(guó)鋼材庫(kù)存似乎接近或相當(dāng)于容量，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家補(bǔ)充庫(kù)存的行為將成為鋼材需求的重要推動(dòng)力。

“While China will continue to underpin strong steel demand, assumed improvements in economic conditions in the rest of the world will [also] provide support,” it stated.

該機(jī)構(gòu)稱：“雖然中國(guó)將繼續(xù)支撐強(qiáng)勁的鋼材需求，世界其它地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況預(yù)期的改善也將提供支持。”

However, it also said it expected global steel demand to fall 9.2 per cent to 1,223m tonnes this year.

不過，該機(jī)構(gòu)也表示，預(yù)計(jì)今年全球鋼材需求將下降9.2%，至12.23億噸。

Global demand should increase by 6.4 per cent to 1,302m tonnes in 2010 but still remain below the 2007 output level.

2010年全球需求將增加6.4%，至13.02億噸，但仍將低于2007年的產(chǎn)出水平。

譯者/管婧