VOA慢速英語(yǔ)：彭博社：對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的預(yù)測(cè)百分百確定

根據(jù)新的預(yù)測(cè)模型，未來(lái) 12 個(gè)月內(nèi) 美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退是 100% 確定的。
A U.S. recession is 100% certain within the next 12 months, according to a new forecast model.  
The U.S. economy is not immune to recession
美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)不能幸免于衰退
 
The U.S. economy is 100% certain to enter a recession in the next 12 months, according to a model based on 13 financial indicators released by two Bloomberg economists on October 17. decline. To make matters worse, the seemingly inevitable recession could come sooner -- a 73% chance in 11 months and a 25% chance in 10 months.
根據(jù)兩位彭博經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家于 10 月 17 日發(fā)布的基于 13 項(xiàng)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)的模型，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)100% 肯定會(huì)在未來(lái) 12 個(gè)月內(nèi)進(jìn)入衰退。更糟糕的是，看似不可避免的衰退可能會(huì)更快到來(lái)——11 個(gè)月內(nèi)有 73% 的可能性，10 個(gè)月內(nèi)有 25% 的可能性。
 
These results are much worse than the last time Bloomberg ran the model, when it predicted a recession with only 65% ??certainty. The results were more discouraging than President Joe Biden, who insisted the U.S. would avoid a recession, unlike many economists who say a recession appears to be near. Mr Biden said if there was some form of recession it would be "very mild".
這些結(jié)果比彭博社上次運(yùn)行該模型時(shí)要差得多，當(dāng)時(shí)它預(yù)測(cè)的衰退只有 65% 的確定性。結(jié)果比總統(tǒng)喬拜登更令人沮??喪，他堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為美國(guó)將避免衰退，不像許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說(shuō)衰退似乎就在附近。拜登先生說(shuō)，如果出現(xiàn)某種形式的衰退，那將是“非常溫和的”。
 
Not all experts are certain of a recession in the US. A survey of 42 economists predicted a 60 percent chance of a recession in the next 12 months. However, their forecast was also worse compared to their last forecast, showing a 50% chance of the U.S. exiting the recession.
并非所有專家都確定美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。一項(xiàng)針對(duì) 42 位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的調(diào)查預(yù)測(cè)，未來(lái) 12 個(gè)月出現(xiàn)衰退的可能性為 60%。然而，與上次預(yù)測(cè)相比，他們的預(yù)測(cè)也更糟，顯示美國(guó)有 50% 的機(jī)會(huì)退出衰退。
 
A separate poll of economists by The Wall Street Journal on Oct. 17 showed a 63 percent chance of a U.S. recession within a year. Polls point to a growing reason for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates after years of no adjustment. More than half of respondents believe the Fed will continue to raise interest rates above healthy levels, which will ultimately destabilize the economy.
《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》10 月 17 日對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家進(jìn)行的另一項(xiàng)民意調(diào)查顯示，美國(guó)在一年內(nèi)陷入衰退的可能性為 63%。民意調(diào)查指出，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Fed）加息的原因在多年沒(méi)有調(diào)整后越來(lái)越高。超過(guò)一半的受訪者認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將繼續(xù)將利率提高到健康水平之上，這最終將破壞經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定。
 
Inflation continued to hover near four-year highs, even as the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates to curb rising living costs. While President Biden touts the jobs numbers in hopes of delivering some positive economic impact to voters, with Washington's very strong fiscal proposition and the rest of the world struggling, Biden's presidency has left a huge fiscal hole. Since entering the White House less than three years ago, Biden has increased the national debt by $3.37 trillion to a record $31 trillion.
通脹繼續(xù)徘徊在四年高位附近，盡管美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)繼續(xù)提高利率以遏制生活成本上升。雖然拜登總統(tǒng)吹捧就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)，希望能給選民帶來(lái)一些積極的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響，但華盛頓的財(cái)政主張非常強(qiáng)大，世界其他地區(qū)也陷入困境，拜登的總統(tǒng)任期留下了一個(gè)巨大的財(cái)政漏洞。自不到三年前進(jìn)入白宮以來(lái)，拜登已將國(guó)債增加了 3.37 萬(wàn)億美元，達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的 31 萬(wàn)億美元。
 
While many Republicans - and even some Democrats - blame Biden for America's financial problems, his predecessor Donald Trump also added more than $7 trillion to the national debt, This is largely due to unprecedented money printing during the COVID-19 pandemic.
雖然許多共和黨人——甚至一些民主黨人——將美國(guó)的金融問(wèn)題歸咎于拜登，但他的前任唐納德·特朗普也增加了超過(guò) 7 萬(wàn)億美元的國(guó)債，這主要是由于 COVID-19 大流行期間前所未有的印鈔。 
 
The global economy faces challenges
全球經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨挑戰(zhàn)
 
Meanwhile, the global economy is facing its biggest challenge in the past four years, according to former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.
與此同時(shí)，根據(jù)美國(guó)前財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)拉里薩默斯的說(shuō)法，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)正面臨著過(guò)去四年來(lái)最大的挑戰(zhàn)。
 
RT quoted Mr Summers as saying at the annual meeting of the Institute of International Finance in Washington: "This is the most complex, fragmented and challenging situation I can remember in 40 years." Quoting International Currency The IMF and the World Bank and central banks underestimated the risks posed by persistently high inflation and failed to take appropriate action to deal with the crisis.
RT 援引薩默斯先生在華盛頓國(guó)際金融學(xué)會(huì)年會(huì)上的話說(shuō)：“這是我記憶中 40 年來(lái)最復(fù)雜、最分散、最具挑戰(zhàn)性的情況。”引用國(guó)際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行和中央銀行低估了持續(xù)高通脹帶來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，以及未能采取適當(dāng)行動(dòng)應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)。 Between rising interest rates, a stronger dollar, energy and food shortages, geopolitical tensions and climate change, "someone should come up with a major solution" to change the situation for the better, Mr Summers said. However, he did not elaborate further on this.
薩默斯先生表示，在利率上升、美元走強(qiáng)、能源和糧食短缺、地緣政治緊張局勢(shì)和氣候變化之間，“應(yīng)該有人提出一個(gè)重大解決方案”，以根據(jù)更好的方向改變局勢(shì)。不過(guò)，他沒(méi)有進(jìn)一步詳細(xì)說(shuō)明這一點(diǎn)。
 
The Fed has raised rates five times so far this year, and other central banks around the world have followed suit. However, Mr Summers said regulators had waited too long to act to curb price increases, and even if it plunged the economy into recession, interest rates would have to rise further.
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)今年迄今已五次加息，全球其他央行紛紛效仿。然而，薩默斯先生表示，監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)等了太久才采取行動(dòng)遏制價(jià)格上漲，即使這會(huì)使經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退，利率也必須進(jìn)一步上升。
 
“如果你試圖避免加息，你最終只會(huì)陷入通脹停滯的狀態(tài)，之后將不得不采取更艱難的步驟。這將給世界其他地區(qū)帶來(lái)所有后果，”他警告說(shuō)。
"If you try to avoid rate hikes, you'll just end up with inflation stagnating and then you'll have to take harder steps. That will have all the consequences for the rest of the world," he warned.
 
根據(jù)薩默斯的說(shuō)法，這樣的后果之一是難以為債務(wù)市場(chǎng)融資。他以英國(guó)為例：英格蘭銀行上個(gè)月啟動(dòng)了一項(xiàng)緊急政府債券購(gòu)買(mǎi)計(jì)劃，以應(yīng)對(duì)政府宣布大規(guī)模減稅后債券價(jià)格的大幅下跌。
One consequence of this, according to Summers, is the difficulty of financing debt markets. He cited the UK as an example: The Bank of England launched an emergency government bond-buying programme last month in response to a sharp fall in bond prices after the government announced massive tax cuts.
 
"Given what's happening in the UK, some of it is self-inflicted, but some of it is a shock to what's happening in the global system... When a concussion occurs, It's not always earthquakes, but maybe you should think about preventing them," he explained.
“鑒于在英國(guó)發(fā)生的事情，其中??一些是自己造成的，但其中一些是對(duì)全球系統(tǒng)正在發(fā)生的事情的震驚......當(dāng)發(fā)生腦震蕩時(shí)，并不總是地震，但也許你應(yīng)該考慮一下防止地震，”他解釋說(shuō)。