VOA慢速英語：世界小麥短缺，阿根廷農(nóng)民苦苦掙扎

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They might plant more soybeans instead.
他們可能會種植更多的大豆。

That is causing worries in world markets because the South American nation is the world's number six exporter of wheat.
這引起了世界市場的擔憂，因為這個南美國家是世界第六大小麥出口國。

Argentina's production is even more important because of the worldwide wheat shortage. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has greatly increased wheat prices. The two countries are among the world's top wheat producers.
由于全球小麥短缺，阿根廷的產(chǎn)量更為重要。俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭使小麥價格大幅上漲。這兩個國家是世界上最大的小麥生產(chǎn)國之一。

Juan Francisco Arregui is an Argentinian farmer. He told Reuters, "The season for wheat is complicated." His fields have not received rainfall in two months. He said the crop needs rain to arrive soon, but weather predictions are not promising.
Juan Francisco Arregui 是一位阿根廷農(nóng)民。他告訴路透社，“小麥的生長季節(jié)很復雜。” 他的農(nóng)田已經(jīng)兩個月沒有下雨了。他說作物需要降雨快點到來，但天氣預報并不樂觀。

While there was enough water to plant the seeds, "there is not much left," he said. He added, "It means that the wheat crop is not sure by any means. We can get it started, but then we are waiting for rain."
他說，雖然有足夠的水來播種，但水已“所剩無幾”。他補充說，“這意味著無論如何小麥的收成都無法保證。我們可以開始播種，但之后我們只能等待下雨。”

Argentina had a record wheat harvest of 22.4 million metric tons in the season that ended. Suppliers were hoping the country could replace the grain lost because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
上一季，阿根廷的小麥收成達到創(chuàng)紀錄的 2240 萬噸。供應商原本希望該國能夠補充因俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭而損失的糧食。

But now, both of Argentina's main grains exchanges, Buenos Aires and Rosario, have cut wheat planting predictions. And they are warning of more cuts if the weather does not improve.
但現(xiàn)在，阿根廷主要的谷物交易所布宜諾斯艾利斯和羅薩里奧都下調(diào)了小麥種植預測。他們警告說，如果天氣沒有好轉(zhuǎn)，將會減產(chǎn)更多。

Cristian Russo is the head agronomist at the Rosario grains exchange. Its highest estimate of the next harvest is 18.5 million metric tons. Russo said, "Today anything that goes wrong with wheat is more important and means greater losses."Cristian Russo 是羅薩里奧谷物交易所的首席農(nóng)藝師。它對下一季小麥收成的最高估計是1850萬噸。Russo 說：“如今，小麥出現(xiàn)任何問題都更重要，也意味著更大的損失。”

The exchange has warned about the worst wheat planting conditions in 12 years. It says planting of the grain is at 65 percent because of the dry conditions. Many fields could be left unplanted.
該交易所已就小麥種植條件發(fā)出了12年來最差的預警。它說由于干燥的條件，谷物的種植率為65%。許多田地可能被閑置。

Fertilizer and politics
肥料與政治

The Russia-Ukraine fighting has also greatly increased fertilizer prices. Russia is a major supplier. The loss of Russian fertilizer has hit farmers from the United States to South America.俄烏戰(zhàn)爭也使化肥價格大幅上漲。俄羅斯是主要供應國。俄羅斯化肥的切斷使得從美國到南美的農(nóng)民都深受打擊。

Arregui said this season he paid $1,600 per metric ton for phosphate fertilizer. That is more than double the $700 he paid a year ago. Another fertilizer, called urea, doubled to $1,100 per metric ton. That pushed him away from planting wheat to planting soy, which requires a lower investment.
Arregui說，本季磷肥價格達到每噸1,600 美元,是他一年前只需700美元的兩倍多。另一種稱為尿素的肥料也翻了一番，達到每噸 1,100 美元。他不得不從種植小麥轉(zhuǎn)向種植投資較低的大豆。

Concerns over government intervention also weigh on farmers' minds. Officials in Argentina are trying to control national inflation which is at about 60 percent. The government has kept a lower cap on wheat exports than last year. It has raised export taxes on the products soymeal and oil, and has threatened higher taxes for wheat. But Reuters news service reports that there is not enough support in congress for that step.對政府干預的擔憂也令農(nóng)民憂心忡忡。阿根廷官員正試圖控制大約60%的全國通貨膨脹率。與去年相比，政府降低了小麥出口的上限,在提高豆粕和石油產(chǎn)品出口稅的同時，宣稱要對小麥征收更高的稅。但路透社報道稱，國會對這一舉措沒有足夠的支持。

Wheat exports for the 2022 to 2023 growing cycle are currently capped at 10 million metric tons, from 14.5 million metric tons a year earlier. That limit could be raised later however.目前,2022年至2023年生長周期的小麥出口上限為1000萬噸，而一年前為1450 萬噸。不過，這個上限可能會在以后提高。

Arregui said, "Here you go to bed on a Sunday and on a Monday you don't know what news you're going to find." He was commenting on the changes in government policy.Arregui 說：“在這里,周日上床睡覺，周一你不知道會發(fā)生什么新聞。” 他是在評論政府政策的多變。

He added, "Every day they are making decisions that indirectly affect what you do and it's a terrible uncertainty, you can't plan anything. It really costs you a lot every day."他補充說，“他們每天都在做出間接影響你的決定，這種可怕的不確定性，讓你無法做任何計劃,每天都要耗費很大的精力。”

I'm Gregory Stachel.
格雷戈里·斯塔切爾報道。