演講MP3+雙語文稿:我們所知的關(guān)于冠狀病毒的情況

聽力課堂TED音頻欄目主要包括TED演講的音頻MP3及中英雙語文稿，供各位英語愛好者學(xué)習(xí)使用。本文主要內(nèi)容為演講MP3+雙語文稿:我們所知的關(guān)于冠狀病毒的情況，希望你會(huì)喜歡！

【演講者及介紹】David Heymann

流行病學(xué)家David Heymann是倫敦衛(wèi)生和熱帶醫(yī)學(xué)院傳染病流行病學(xué)教授。他在2003年領(lǐng)導(dǎo)了世界衛(wèi)生組織對(duì)SARS疫情的全球應(yīng)對(duì)工作。

【演講主題】我們所知道的（和不知道的）關(guān)于冠狀病毒的情況

What we do (and don't) know about the coronavirus

【中英文字幕】

翻譯者Cissy Yun 校對(duì)者Yolanda Zhang

00:12

[As of the morning February 27, 2020, there were at least 82,000 confirmed cases worldwide of the coronavirus and 2,810 deaths from it. TED invited Dr. David Heymann to share the latest findings about the outbreak.]

[ 截止 2020 年 2 月 27 日， 全球新冠肺炎確診 82000 多例， 其中死亡病例為 2810 個(gè)。 TED 邀請(qǐng)了大衛(wèi) · 赫曼醫(yī)生分享 對(duì)于本次病毒爆發(fā)的最新發(fā)現(xiàn) ]

00:22

[What happens if you get infected with the coronavirus?]

[ 如果你感染了新冠病毒， 癥狀是什么？]

00:25

This looks like a very mild disease, like a common cold, in the majority of people. There are certain people who get infected and have very serious illness; among them are health workers. It's a very serious infection in them, as they get a higher dose than normal people, and at the same time, they have no immunity. So in the general population, it's likely that the dose of virus that you receive when you are infected is much less than the dose that a health worker would receive, health workers having more serious infections. So your infection would be less serious, hopefully. So that leaves the elderly and those with comorbidities to really be the ones that we have to make sure are taken care of in hospitals.

大多數(shù)人的癥狀顯得輕微， 就像普通的感冒。 但有一些感染者， 會(huì)表現(xiàn)出非常嚴(yán)重的癥狀， 這些人中包括醫(yī)護(hù)人員。 對(duì)他們來說， 這種感染非常嚴(yán)重， 因?yàn)樗麄兘佑|的病毒量 比起普通人要高得多， 與此同時(shí)， 他們沒有足夠的免疫力。 在普通人群中， 大致上你受感染時(shí)接觸的病毒量 遠(yuǎn)低于一位醫(yī)護(hù)人員 所接觸到的病毒量， 許多醫(yī)護(hù)人員會(huì)遇到 更嚴(yán)重的感染。 所以普通人若被感染， 也不會(huì)特別嚴(yán)重，但愿如此。 剩下的就是老人和患有并發(fā)癥的人， 他們是我們必須確保 得到醫(yī)院治療的人。

01:07

[Who are the people who should be most concerned about this?]

[ 哪些人特別需要重視這個(gè)病毒？]

01:12

Well, the most concerned are people who are, first of all, in developing countries and who don't have access to good medical care and may not have access at all to a hospital, should an epidemic occur in their country. Those people would be at great risk, especially the elderly. Elderly in all populations are at risk, but especially those who can't get to oxygen. In industrialized countries, it's the very elderly who have comorbidities, who have diabetes, who have other diseases, who are at risk. The general population doesn't appear to be at great risk.

最應(yīng)該重視此事的人， 首先是那些處于發(fā)展中國家， 缺少優(yōu)質(zhì)醫(yī)療資源， 甚至可能無法前往醫(yī)院的人。 當(dāng)流行病毒波及他們的國家時(shí)， 他們需要特別注意。 那些人，特別是其中的老年人， 將面臨高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 所有人口中的老年人都面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)， 尤其是那些無法得到氧氣供應(yīng)的人。 在工業(yè)化國家， 那些有并發(fā)癥、 糖尿病和其他疾病的老年人 都面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 現(xiàn)在看來， 普通人群則風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不大。

01:45

[What pre-existing medical conditions put people at higher risk?]

[ 有哪些既存病癥會(huì)使人們 面臨更高的感染風(fēng)險(xiǎn)？]

01:50

First of all, pulmonary disease existing as a comorbidity is also important. In general, the elderly are at greater risk, especially those over 70, because their immune systems are not as effective as they might have once been, and they are more susceptible to infections. In addition, in some instances in China, there's been a coinfection with influenza and at the same time, there have been some bacterial superinfections on the pneumonias that are occurring.

首先， 已患有肺病并發(fā)癥的人 要引起重視。 總體來說， 老年人患病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是最高的, 特別是 70 歲以上的老人， 因?yàn)樗麄兊拿庖呦到y(tǒng) 不如年輕時(shí)那樣強(qiáng)健， 所以他們更容易受到感染。 而且，在中國的一些病例 存在新冠和流感的共同感染， 與此同時(shí)， 還有肺炎上的 細(xì)菌重復(fù)感染。

02:19

[Where can we find up-to-date information?]

[ 我們能從哪里獲得最新信息？]

02:22

The Center for Disease Control in Atlanta keeps track and has updates on a regular basis on its website. Also, the World Health Organization in Geneva, which is coordinating many of the activities going on internationally, also has a website with daily updates. It's our responsibility to get that information as individuals, so we understand and can make sure that we can contribute in our own way to prevention of major spread.

亞特蘭大的 疾病控制與預(yù)防中心（CDC） 會(huì)在它的網(wǎng)站上定期更新 追蹤到的疫情信息。 位于日內(nèi)瓦的世界衛(wèi)生組織 正在協(xié)調(diào)全球同時(shí)開展的 許多行動(dòng)， 也會(huì)在自己的網(wǎng)站上 每日更新。 我們每個(gè)人都有責(zé)任 去獲取那些信息， 以便了解 并確知如何各盡所能 阻擋疫情的大范圍傳播。

02:48

[You led the global response to the SARS outbreak in 2003. How does this outbreak compare?]

[ 在 2003 年，全球抗擊 SARS 病毒的行動(dòng)由你領(lǐng)導(dǎo)， 相對(duì)而言，如何評(píng)價(jià) 這次的疫情爆發(fā)？]

02:52

That's the same problem with all new infections. This is an infection that's coming to humans who have never been exposed to this virus before. They don't have any antibody protection, and it's not clear whether their immune system can handle this virus or not. This is a virus that usually finds itself in bats or in other animals, and all of a sudden, it's in humans. And humans just don't have experience with this virus. But gradually, we are beginning to learn a lot, as we did with SARS. And you know, there are certainly a larger number of deaths than there were with SARS. But when you divide that by a denominator of persons who are infected, there are many, many more persons infected than there were with SARS. The case fatality ratio, that is the ratio of deaths to the numbers of cases in SARS, was about 10 percent. With the current coronavirus, COVID-19, it is two percent or probably less. So it's a much less virulent virus, but it's still a virus that causes mortality, and that's what we don't want entering human populations.

所有的新型感染的問題都一樣。 人類之前從未 暴露于這種病毒之中。 人類沒有任何抗體的保護(hù)， 現(xiàn)在還無法確定 人體本身的免疫系統(tǒng) 是否可以抵抗這個(gè)病毒。 這種病毒一開始 傳播于蝙蝠或其他動(dòng)物之間， 突然，它出現(xiàn)在了人類中。 人類對(duì)它沒有任何處理經(jīng)驗(yàn)。 但漸漸的，我們開始整理出頭緒， 就像當(dāng)時(shí)面對(duì) SARS 病毒一樣。 大家也知道，這個(gè)病毒的死亡人數(shù) 超過了 SARS 病毒。 但是若用死亡人數(shù) 除以所有感染的人數(shù)—— 新冠感染人數(shù)也比 感染 SARS 病毒的人多—— 對(duì)比死亡率， 即死亡人數(shù)和確診人數(shù)的比例， 就 SARS 而言， 是 10% 左右。 對(duì)于新冠病毒（COVID-19）來說， 現(xiàn)在的死亡率低于 2%。 所以它是一種毒性偏低的病毒， 但仍是一種可致命的病毒， 我們非常不希望它進(jìn)入人群中。

03:56

[Have we responded adequately at border crossings, such as airports?]

[ 我們?cè)趪疫吘匙龀龅拇胧?還算及時(shí)妥當(dāng)嗎？]

04:00

It's clearly understood that airports or any land borders cannot prevent a disease from entering. People in the incubation period can cross that border, can enter countries and can then infect others when they become sick. So borders are not a means of preventing infections from entering a country by checking temperatures. Borders are important because you can provide to people arriving from areas that might be at risk of having had infection, provide them with an understanding, either a printed understanding or a verbal understanding, of what the signs and symptoms are of this infection, and what they should do if they feel that they might be infected.

我們現(xiàn)在很清楚的認(rèn)識(shí)到， 機(jī)場和其他的陸地邊境 并不能阻止病毒的入侵。 處于潛伏期的病患 仍可以出入邊境， 出入國境， 并在病發(fā)后傳染他人。 因此，若僅通過檢測體溫 防止病毒進(jìn)入一個(gè)國家， 邊境限制并不算是一種防疫機(jī)制。 邊境非常重要， 因?yàn)榭梢詾槟切?來自病毒高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)地區(qū)的人們 提供書面或是口頭的訊息， 讓他們了解感染病毒后 會(huì)產(chǎn)生哪些癥狀， 若他們感覺自己可能被感染后， 可以采取什么措施。

04:41

[What's the timeline for a vaccine?]

[ 現(xiàn)在疫苗研發(fā)的時(shí)間線是怎么樣的？]

04:44

Vaccines are under development right now, there's a lot of research going on. That research requires first that the vaccine be developed, then that it be studied for safety and effectiveness in animals, who are challenged with the virus after they are vaccinated, and then it must go into human studies. The animal studies have not yet begun, but will soon begin for certain vaccines. And it's thought that by the end of the year, or early next year, there may be some candidate vaccines that can then be studied for licensing by regulatory agencies. So we're talking about at least a year until there's vaccine available that can be used in many populations.

目前相關(guān)疫苗正在研發(fā)當(dāng)中， 很多研究正在進(jìn)行。 目標(biāo)首先是研發(fā)出一種疫苗， 再是觀察研究疫苗在動(dòng)物 身上的安全性和效力， 讓動(dòng)物接種疫苗后 再接觸病毒， 然后必須進(jìn)行人體研究。 現(xiàn)在，動(dòng)物試驗(yàn)還未開始， 但馬上就會(huì)有幾株疫苗 開始進(jìn)行試驗(yàn)。 我們期望在今年年底 或明年年初 完成針對(duì)一些備選疫苗的研究 并取得監(jiān)管部門派發(fā)的使用許可證。 現(xiàn)在可預(yù)計(jì)的是 至少需要一年的時(shí)間 才能研發(fā)出可被多人群接種的疫苗。

05:25

[What questions about the outbreak are still unanswered?]

[ 哪些有關(guān)疫情的疑問仍有待回答？]

05:29

It's clear we know how it transmits, we don't know how easily it transmits in humans, in communities or in unenclosed areas. We know, for example, that in the enclosed area of a cruise ship, it spread very easily. We need to better understand how it will spread once it gets into more open areas where people are exposed to people who might be sick.

現(xiàn)在我們清楚病毒的傳播途徑， 但我們還不知道病毒在人群中、 在社區(qū)中或是在未封閉環(huán)境中 有多容易傳播。 我們知道的是， 在一個(gè)相對(duì)封閉的環(huán)境中， 比如說游輪上，病毒傳播得非?？臁?我們需要更好的理解 病毒在更開放空間中是如何傳播的, 特別是當(dāng)人們接觸到 可能感染的患者時(shí)。

05:52

[What about the global response could be improved?]

[ 全球?qū)τ诓《镜膽?yīng)對(duì)有 哪些可以改進(jìn)的地方？]

05:56

A major problem in the world today is that we look at outbreaks in developing countries as something that we need to go and stop. So when there's an outbreak of Ebola, we think "How can we go and stop this outbreak in the country?" We don't think about "How can we help that country strengthen its capacity, so that it can detect and respond to infections?" So we haven't invested enough in helping countries develop their core capacity in public health. What we've done is invested in many mechanisms globally, which can provide support to other countries to go and help stop outbreaks. But we want to see a world where every country can do its best to stop its own outbreaks.

當(dāng)今世界上一個(gè)很嚴(yán)重的問題 在于，當(dāng)我們關(guān)注 在發(fā)展中國家的病毒爆發(fā)時(shí)， 我們會(huì)想到要去當(dāng)?shù)叵麥绮《尽?當(dāng)埃博拉病毒爆發(fā)時(shí)， 我們想的是， “我們?nèi)绾卧谀抢镒柚共《镜膫鞑?？?而不是 “我們?nèi)绾螏椭莻€(gè)國家 提高整體醫(yī)療水平， 以有效檢測和應(yīng)對(duì)感染?” 所以在幫助其他國家 提高公共醫(yī)療水平方面， 我們并沒有進(jìn)行足夠的投資。 我們所做的是 投資全球的許多應(yīng)對(duì)機(jī)制， 從而為其他國家提供幫助， 阻止病毒的傳播。 但我們更希望看到的是 所有國家 能盡自己最大的努力 來阻止病毒的爆發(fā)。

06:38

[Will we see more emerging disease outbreaks in the future?]

[ 在未來我們是否會(huì)經(jīng)歷 更多的疫情爆發(fā)？]

06:41

Today, there are over seven billion people. And when those people come into the world, they demand more food, they demand a whole series of things and they live closer together. In fact, we're an urban world, where people live in urban areas. And at the same time, we're growing more animals, and those animals are contributing food to humans as well. So what we see is that that animal-human interface is becoming closer and closer together. And this intensive agriculture of animals and this intensive increase in human populations living together on the same planet is really a melting pot where outbreaks can occur and do occur. We will eventually have more and more of these outbreaks. So an emerging infection today is just a warning of what will happen in the future. We have to make sure that that technical collaboration in the world is there to work together to make sure that we can understand these outbreaks when they occur and rapidly provide the information necessary to control them.

今天，地球上有超過 70 億人口。 人口增長帶來的是 對(duì)食物 和生活用品日益增長的需求， 而且在生活中， 人們彼此的距離會(huì)越來越近。 現(xiàn)在的世界，是城市化的世界， 大多數(shù)人住在城市地域。 與此同時(shí)，我們也飼養(yǎng) 越來越多的牲畜， 這些牲畜是人類的食物來源。 我們發(fā)現(xiàn)， 動(dòng)物和人類的交界 也在變得越來越近。 畜禽集約農(nóng)業(yè) 以及極速上升的人口 在同一個(gè)星球上共存， 這種大熔爐式的生活方式 讓疫情爆發(fā)成為了可能。 這樣的疫情爆發(fā)還會(huì)越來越多。 當(dāng)今的疫情為未來將會(huì)發(fā)生什么 敲響了警鐘。 我們必須確保 世界范圍內(nèi)的 技術(shù)合作 在病毒爆發(fā)時(shí)能夠幫助我們 了解疫情的發(fā)展， 并迅速提供必要的信息 進(jìn)行有效防控。

07:44

[Is the worst behind us?]

[ 最糟的時(shí)候已經(jīng)過去了嗎？]

07:46

I can't predict with accuracy. So all I can say is that we must all be prepared for the worst-case scenario. And at the same time, learn how we can protect ourselves and protect others should we become a part of that epidemic.

我無法準(zhǔn)確回答這個(gè)問題。 我能說的是，我們必須 為最壞情況做好準(zhǔn)備。 與此同時(shí)， 若我們被卷入這場疫情中， 要學(xué)會(huì)如何保護(hù)自己和他人。

08:00

[To learn more, visit: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention World Health Organization]

[ 了解更多，請(qǐng)?jiān)L問： 疾病控制與預(yù)防中心官方網(wǎng)站， 國際衛(wèi)生組織官方網(wǎng)站 ]