演講MP3+雙語(yǔ)文稿:世界上第一個(gè)太空交通監(jiān)控系統(tǒng)

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【演講者及介紹】Moriba Jah

Moriba Jah，空間環(huán)境研究者，他研究并預(yù)測(cè)太空中物體的運(yùn)動(dòng)，努力使太空變得安全、可靠和可持續(xù)。

【演講主題】世界上第一個(gè)眾包的太空交通監(jiān)控系統(tǒng)

【中英文字幕】

翻譯者 psjmz mz 校對(duì)者LipengChen

00:13

I am an astrodynamicist -- you know, likethat guy Rich Purnell in the movie "The Martian." And it's my job tostudy and predict motion of objects in space. Currently we track about onepercent of hazardous objects on orbit -- hazardous to services like location,agriculture, banking, television and communications, and soon -- very soon --even the internet itself.

我是一個(gè)天體力學(xué)家，就像《火星救援》里的瑞奇·珀內(nèi)爾。而我的工作就是研究并預(yù)測(cè)太空中物體的運(yùn)動(dòng)軌跡。當(dāng)前我們正在追蹤軌道上大約百分之一的危險(xiǎn)物體——那些比如威脅到定位服務(wù)、農(nóng)業(yè)、銀行業(yè)、通信與電話業(yè)、并且很快——比你想的要快，會(huì)威脅到互聯(lián)網(wǎng)本身的物體。

00:46

Now these services are not protected from,roughly, half a million objects the size of a speck of paint all the way to aschool bus in size. A speck of paint, traveling at the right speed, impactingone of these objects, could render it absolutely useless. But we can't trackthings as small as a speck of paint. We can only track things as small as say,a smartphone. So of this half million objects that we should be concernedabout, we can only track about 26,000 of these objects. And of these 26,000,only 2,000 actually work. Everything else is garbage. That's a lot of garbage.

目前這些服務(wù)設(shè)施暴露在大約 50 萬(wàn)從一粒油漆 直到校車大小物體的威脅中。一點(diǎn)油漆 以適當(dāng)?shù)乃俣冗\(yùn)行時(shí)，撞擊其中一個(gè)設(shè)備，可能讓它徹底報(bào)廢。但我們無(wú)法跟蹤像一塊油漆那么小的東西。我們只能跟蹤到小至，比如說(shuō)智能手機(jī)那樣的東西。所以在這 50 萬(wàn)我們應(yīng)該關(guān)心的物體中，我們只能跟蹤其中的 26000 個(gè)。而這 26000 個(gè)中，只有 2000 個(gè)真正有用。其他都是垃圾。有很多的垃圾。

01:40

To make things a little bit worse, most ofwhat we launch into orbit never comes back. We send the satellite in orbit, itstops working, it runs out of fuel, and we send something else up ... and thenwe send up something else ... and then something else.

讓事情變得更糟糕的是，我們發(fā)射到軌道的大部分物體永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)返回。我們把衛(wèi)星發(fā)射到軌道，它停止了工作，燃料用盡，然后我們發(fā)射其他的上去……接著又發(fā)射其他的上去……一波接一波。

02:02

And every once in a while, two of thesethings will collide with each other or one of these things will explode, oreven worse, somebody might just happen to destroy one of their satellites onorbit, and this generates many, many more pieces, most of which also never comeback.

每隔一段時(shí)間，其中兩個(gè)物體會(huì)相互碰撞或者其中一個(gè)物體會(huì)爆炸，或者更糟糕，有人可能恰好在軌道摧毀他們的一顆衛(wèi)星，這產(chǎn)生了更多的碎片，很多碎片再也不會(huì)回到地球。

02:21

Now these things are not just randomlyscattered in orbit. It turns out that given the curvature of space-time, thereare ideal locations where we put some of these satellites -- think of these asspace highways. Very much like highways on earth, these space highways can onlytake up a maximum capacity of traffic to sustain space-safe operations. Unlike highwayson earth, there are actually no space traffic rules. None whatsoever, OK? Wow.What could possibly go wrong with that?

如今這些物體不僅只是隨機(jī)散落在軌道，實(shí)際上，給定時(shí)空的曲率，存在一些理想的位置可以放置一些衛(wèi)星——可以把這些位置 想象成太空高速公路。非常像地球上的高速公路，這些太空高速公路只能占用最大的運(yùn)輸能力來(lái)維持空間的安全運(yùn)作。不像地球上的高速公路，這里事實(shí)上沒有太空交通規(guī)則。一點(diǎn)兒也沒有。喔。這能有什么問題呢？

03:03

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

03:05

Now, what would be really nice is if we hadsomething like a space traffic map, like a Waze for space that I could look upand see what the current traffic conditions are in space, maybe even predictthese. The problem with that, however, is that ask five different people,"What's going on in orbit? Where are things going?" and you'reprobably going to get 10 different answers. Why is that? It's becauseinformation about things on orbit is not commonly shared either.

如果我們有像太空交通地圖那樣的東西會(huì)很棒，比如 Waze 太空地圖可以讓我看到太空的交通狀況，甚至能進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。但問題在于，問 5 個(gè)不同的人，“軌道現(xiàn)在怎樣了？這些物體去哪了？”你可能會(huì)得到 10 個(gè)不同的答案。為什么會(huì)那樣？因?yàn)檐壍郎衔矬w的信息并沒有充分共享。

03:37

So what if we had a globally accessible,open and transparent space traffic information system that can inform thepublic of where everything is located to try to keep space safe andsustainable? And what if the system could be used to form evidence-based normsof behavior -- these space traffic rules?

那么，如果我們有一個(gè)全球可訪問的、 開放和透明的空間交通信息系統(tǒng)，可以告知公眾物體的位置，以保證太空安全和可持續(xù)會(huì)怎樣呢？如果這個(gè)系統(tǒng)可以用來(lái)形成以證據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)的行為規(guī)范——這些太空交通規(guī)則，會(huì)怎樣呢？

03:58

So I developed ASTRIAGraph, the world'sfirst crowdsourced, space traffic monitoring system at the University of Texasat Austin. ASTRIAGraph combines multiple sources of information from around theglobe -- government, industry and academia -- and represents this in a commonframework that anybody can access today.

所以我開發(fā)了 ASTRIAGraph，在德克薩斯大學(xué)奧斯汀分校誕生的世界首個(gè) 眾包的太空交通監(jiān)控系統(tǒng)。ASTRIAGraph 結(jié)合了來(lái)自 全球各地的信息源—— 政府部門，工業(yè)界和學(xué)術(shù)界—— 并用今天任何人都可以訪問 的公共框架進(jìn)行展示。

04:29

But back to my problem of space trafficmap: What if you only had information from the US government? But what do theRussians think? That looks significantly different. Who's right? Who's wrong?What should I believe? What could I trust? This is part of the issue.

但回到我的空間交通地圖問題：如果你只有美國(guó)政府的信息會(huì)怎樣？但俄羅斯人會(huì)怎么想？這看起來(lái)就明顯不同。誰(shuí)是對(duì)的？誰(shuí)是錯(cuò)的？我應(yīng)該相信什么？我應(yīng)該信任誰(shuí)？ 這是一部分問題。

04:56

In the absence of this framework to monitorspace-actor behavior, to monitor activity in space -- where these objects arelocated -- to reconcile these inconsistencies and make this knowledgecommonplace, we actually risk losing the ability to use space for humanity'sbenefit.

缺乏這個(gè)框架來(lái)監(jiān)控太空物體行為，去監(jiān)控太空活動(dòng)——這些設(shè)備的位置——去調(diào)和這些矛盾 和讓這些知識(shí)變得司空見慣，我們其實(shí)是冒著失去 太空用于人類福祉的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

05:23

Thank you very much.

謝謝大家。

05:24

(Applause and cheers)

（鼓掌并歡呼）