東京房價(jià)為什么不漲？

04 東京房價(jià)為什么不漲？

過去20年間，舊金山房價(jià)漲了231%，倫敦飆升441%，東京房價(jià)20年卻僅增長45%。東京是怎么做到的？FT東京分社社長羅賓·哈丁(Robin Harding)從身邊小事說起，探討東京房價(jià)不漲的奧秘

羅賓·哈丁居住于東京，是英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》東京分社社長。最近，自家住宅周圍的一點(diǎn)變化令他無比煩惱。

“讓我們大感意外的是隔壁房子的劇變。我們知道它是套空置房，長滿苔蘚的花園里野草不斷瘋漲，樓上的窗簾也從未開過。但一天，一紙公告后，液壓式挖掘機(jī)就把房子一拆而光，明年底，此處將拔地而起一幢由16套公寓房組成的住宅樓。

一夜之間，我們就與東京的一處建筑工地毗鄰而居。這可一點(diǎn)都不有趣。工地每周工作6天。要是在倫敦、巴黎或是舊金山，肯定會引發(fā)居民憤怒的抗議潮——請?jiān)笗⒕嫘^(qū)從此特色不再、甚至可能會鬧出一、二樁官司。地方選舉因選民減少支持而敗北，等等不勝枚舉。

然而在我們小區(qū)，當(dāng)?shù)鼐用駞s集體緘默，與東京港區(qū)規(guī)劃局局長野口隆彥的一番談話道出了其中緣由：“日本法律對拆除住房并無任何限制。”他說，“居民有權(quán)自由處置自己名下的地產(chǎn)，因此，小區(qū)居民無權(quán)阻止其開發(fā)利用?！?/p>

這件事引發(fā)了哈丁的思考。過去20年間，舊金山房價(jià)漲了231%，倫敦飆升441%，東京房價(jià)20年卻僅增長45%。相對寬松的樓市開發(fā)政策是否是東京抑制房價(jià)增長的秘訣呢？哈丁撰文對此事給出了自己的意見：

巋然不動的東京房價(jià)

Here is a startling fact: in 2014 there were 142,417 housing starts in the city of Tokyo (population 13.3m, no empty land), more than the 83,657 housing permits issued in the state of California (population 38.7m), or the 137,010 houses started in the entire country of England (population 54.3m).

以下是不可思議的事實(shí)：2014年，總?cè)丝?330萬、幾無空余建筑用地的東京都新開工住房數(shù)為142417戶，超過了整個(gè)加州的許可建房數(shù)（83657戶），也超過了英國全國（總?cè)丝?430萬）的新開工數(shù)（137010戶）。

Tokyo's steady construction is linked to a still more startling fact.In contrast to the enormous house price booms that have distorted western cities — setting young against old, redistributing wealth to the already wealthy, and denying others the chance to move to where the good jobs are — the cost of property in Japan's capital has hardly budged.

東京新開工住房數(shù)穩(wěn)步上升，這與更加不同尋常的事實(shí)緊密關(guān)聯(lián)。與西方大城市房價(jià)暴漲形成強(qiáng)烈反差的是：東京的房價(jià)基本原地踏步走。離譜房價(jià)造成西方城市畸形式發(fā)展：導(dǎo)致年輕人與老年人對立、富者更富以及剝奪人才涌向好工作云集地段的機(jī)會。

This is not the result of a falling population.Japan has experienced the same “return to the city” wave as other nations.In Minato ward — a desirable 20 sq km slice of central Tokyo — the population is up 66 per cent over the past 20 years, from 145,000 to 241,000, an increase of about 100,000 residents.

這并非人口不斷減少造成的結(jié)果。日本與其它國家一樣，也經(jīng)歷了“回歸城市”潮。位于東京中心地段、面積20平方公里、寸土寸金的彈丸之地港區(qū)，過去20年總?cè)丝趶?4.5萬增至24.1萬，大約增加了10萬人，大幅增長66%。

In the 121 sq km of San Francisco, the population grew by about the same number over 20 years, from 746,000 to 865,000 — a rise of 16 per cent.Yet whereas the price of a home in San Francisco and London has increased 231 per cent and 441 per cent respectively, Minato ward has absorbed its population boom with price rises of just 45 per cent, much of which came after the Bank of Japan launched its big monetary stimulus in 2013.

在總面積121平方公里的舊金山，過去20年，也增加了約10萬人（總?cè)丝趶?4.6萬增至86.5萬），增長了16%。然而，舊金山與倫敦的房價(jià)過去20年分別飚升了231%與441%，東京港區(qū)在人口增加的同時(shí)，20年間房價(jià)僅僅增長45%，而多數(shù)漲幅還是日本央行2013年推出大規(guī)模貨幣刺激政策所致。

In Tokyo there are no boring conversations about house prices because they have not changed much.Whether to buy or rent is not a life-changing decision.Rather, Japan delivers to its people a steadily improving standard, location and volume of house.

東京的街頭巷尾并無煩人的房價(jià)熱議，因?yàn)榉績r(jià)多年來增長不多。買房還是租房并不是了不得的人生大事。相反，日本政府不斷向國民交付質(zhì)量穩(wěn)步提高、地處不同地段的更多房源。

In many countries, urban housing is becoming one of the great social and economic issues of the age.It is worth investigating, therefore, how Tokyo achieved this feat, the price it has paid for a steady stream of homes, and whether there are any lessons to learn.

而在很多國家，城市住房已演變成現(xiàn)今最重大的社會與經(jīng)濟(jì)問題。因此，我們有必要深入研究東京為何有此了不起的成就、房源持續(xù)供應(yīng)情況下的房價(jià)為何能保持基本不變以及從中可以吸取什么經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)。

樓市開發(fā)政策的玄機(jī)

Like most institutions in Japan, urban planning was originally based on western models.Cities are zoned into commercial, industrial and residential land of various types.In commercial areas you can build what you want: part of Tokyo's trick is a blossoming of apartment towers in former industrial zones around the bay.But in low-rise residential districts, there are strict limits.

與日本多數(shù)機(jī)構(gòu)一樣，日本城市規(guī)劃最初完全借鑒西方模式。城市按不同功能劃分為商業(yè)區(qū)、工業(yè)區(qū)以及住宅區(qū)。商業(yè)區(qū)可按業(yè)主自己意愿建房：東京的高招之一就是在原先繞東京灣的工業(yè)區(qū)不斷興建高層公寓樓。但在低層住宅區(qū)，建房則有著嚴(yán)格限制。

Subject to the zoning rules, the rights of landowners are strong.A private developer cannot make you sell land; a local government cannot stop you using it.If you want to build a mock-Gothic castle faced in pink seashells, that is your business.In the cities of coastal California, zoning rules have led to paralysis and a lack of new housing supply, as existing homeowners block new development.It was a similar story in 1980s Tokyo.

在分區(qū)規(guī)劃下，土地所有者擁有很多權(quán)力。私人開發(fā)商不能強(qiáng)迫業(yè)主出售土地；地方政府也不能阻止個(gè)人開發(fā)土地。諸位若想建一幢正面裝飾粉色貝殼的仿哥特式城堡，完全是自己說了算。在加州沿海城市，分區(qū)規(guī)劃已導(dǎo)致城市建設(shè)處于癱瘓狀態(tài)，新房供應(yīng)難以為繼，原因是現(xiàn)有業(yè)主阻止進(jìn)一步開發(fā)。這與上世紀(jì)80年代的東京如出一轍。

“During the 1980s Japan had a spectacular speculative house price bubble that was even worse than in London and New York during the same period, and various Japanese economists were decrying the planning and zoning systems as having been a major contributor by reducing supply,” says André Sorensen, a geography professor at the University of Toronto.

“上世紀(jì)80年代，日本的房價(jià)因大肆投機(jī)而形成巨大泡沫，境況比同時(shí)期的倫敦與紐約更甚，日本許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都齊聲譴責(zé)規(guī)劃與分區(qū)政策，指其是減少房屋供應(yīng)的罪魁禍?zhǔn)住！倍鄠惗啻髮W(xué)地理學(xué)教授索倫森(André Sorensen)說。

As bad loans to developers brought Japan's financial system to the brink of collapse in the 1990s, the government relaxed development rules, culminating in the Urban Renaissance Law of 2002, which made it easier to rezone land.Office sites were repurposed for new housing.“To help the economy recover from the bubble, the country eased regulation on urban development,” says Hiro Ichikawa, who advises developer Mori Building.“If it hadn't been for the bubble, Tokyo would be in the same situation as London or San Francisco.”

上世紀(jì)90年代，地產(chǎn)商的不良貸款使日本金融機(jī)構(gòu)瀕臨崩潰，于是政府放松了樓市開發(fā)政策，最終以2002年出臺《城市復(fù)興法》而告終。該法給重新分區(qū)規(guī)劃大開綠燈。寫字樓地塊重新規(guī)劃為住宅區(qū)?！盀榱藥椭?jīng)濟(jì)從泡沫中恢復(fù)元?dú)猓毡菊潘闪顺鞘虚_發(fā)的監(jiān)管。” 日本森大廈株式會社房產(chǎn)公司顧問Hiro Ichikawa說，“多虧了當(dāng)初的樓市泡沫，否則東京就會與現(xiàn)在的倫敦和舊金山一樣束手無策。”

Constant rebuilding helps to explain why housing starts in the city are so high: the net increase in homes is lower.Like our next-door neighbours, however, a rebuild often allows an increase in density.

持續(xù)不斷的重建很好解釋為何東京住房新開工率如此之高：住房的凈增加數(shù)量低于以往。但與我的隔壁鄰居一樣，重建通?？梢栽黾幼≌芏取?/p>

無為而治的規(guī)劃制度

“The Japanese system is extremely laissez-faire.It really is the minimum.And it's extremely centralised and standardised.That means it is highly flexible in responding to social and economic change,” says Okata.

“日本的規(guī)劃制度完全放任自流，它真的是崇尚無為而治；而且日本規(guī)劃制度是集權(quán)化與標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化至上。這意味著它可靈活應(yīng)對社會和經(jīng)濟(jì)的變化?！睂镎f。

“On the other hand, it's not much good at producing outcomes suited to a particular town in a particular place.It can't produce attractive cities like the UK or Europe.” Okata wants to hand much more power to local government.

“另一方面，日本不太擅長原樣復(fù)制某國某個(gè)特定城鎮(zhèn)。它無法建造出像英國或歐洲等國的迷人城市?！睂锵Ｍ醒胝艽蠓艡?quán)于地方政府。

And yet.At the level of individual buildings, if you block from your vision whatever stands next door, Tokyo fizzes with invention and beauty.It is no coincidence that the country where architects can build has produced a procession of Pritzker prize winners.

然而也不盡然。在私家住宅這一層面，如果諸位“視而不見”自己鄰家房子的話，那么東京充斥著創(chuàng)新與美景。由于日本建筑師可以自由地建造房屋，因此該國不斷涌現(xiàn)普利茲克獎(jiǎng)得主并非偶然。

Japanese urbanism, with its “scramble” pedestrian crossings, its narrow streets, its dense population and its superb public transport is looked to as a model, certainly in Asia, and increasingly across the rest of the world as well.

日本的城市化——全向十字路口、狹窄的街道、人口稠密以及異常發(fā)達(dá)的公共交通——毫無疑問會成為亞洲、乃至全世界的樣板。

Most of all, Tokyo is fair.The ugliness is shared by rich and poor alike.So is the low-cost housing.In London, or in San Francisco, all share in the beauty, but some enjoy it from the gutter; others from high above the city, in the rationed seats, closer to the stars.

最重要的是：東京又是公平的。丑陋的建筑里既住著窮人，也住著富人，廉租房同樣如此。而在倫敦及舊金山，美景人人都有份，只是有些人身處貧民窟欣賞它，而有些人則坐在九霄云天的豪華飛機(jī)中縱情俯瞰它。

詞匯總結(jié)

budge [b?d?]

v.使緩和，使減輕

The cost of property in Japan's capital has hardly budged.

東京的房價(jià)基本原地踏步走。

speculative ['spekj?l?t?v]

adj.思考的,思索的,推測出的投機(jī)的,投機(jī)生意的

During the 1980s Japan had a spectacular speculative house price bubble

上世紀(jì)80年代，日本的房價(jià)因大肆投機(jī)而形成巨大泡沫

laissez-faire

adj.自由放任的；放任主義的

The Japanese system is extremely laissez-faire.

日本的規(guī)劃制度完全放任自流

fizz [f?z]

v.(液體,通常指飲料)起泡,發(fā)嘶嘶聲

At the level of individual buildings, if you block from your vision whatever stands next door, Tokyo fizzes with invention and beauty.

在私家住宅這一層面，如果諸位“視而不見”自己鄰家房子的話，那么東京充斥著創(chuàng)新與美景。

culminate in達(dá)到頂點(diǎn)；以…告終

As bad loans to developers brought Japan's financial system to the brink of collapse in the 1990s, the government relaxed development rules, culminating in the Urban Renaissance Law of 2002.

上世紀(jì)90年代，地產(chǎn)商的不良貸款使日本金融機(jī)構(gòu)瀕臨崩潰，于是政府放松了樓市開發(fā)政策，最終以2002年出臺《城市復(fù)興法》而告終