除了圍棋已經(jīng)下不過(guò)AI，面臨科技威脅，這五個(gè)行業(yè)也岌岌可危

07 除了圍棋已經(jīng)下不過(guò)AI，面臨科技威脅，這五個(gè)行業(yè)也岌岌可危

2016年，技術(shù)和“分享經(jīng)濟(jì)”初創(chuàng)企業(yè)進(jìn)一步?jīng)_擊傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)——從優(yōu)步(Uber)和其他叫車(chē)應(yīng)用沖擊出租車(chē)市場(chǎng)，到Airbnb提供多種替代傳統(tǒng)酒店住宿的選擇。可是，哪些行業(yè)將面臨下一階段的數(shù)字化和自動(dòng)化挑戰(zhàn)呢？英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》記者們展望未來(lái)5到10年，哪5個(gè)行業(yè)將會(huì)縮水，甚至徹底消失。

1.實(shí)體旅行社

擾亂因素：在線旅游平臺(tái)（Online travel platforms）

如今，訂酒店、訂門(mén)票，手指動(dòng)一動(dòng)就能完成；自助游在年輕人當(dāng)中也更加流行。傳統(tǒng)實(shí)體旅行社該何去何從？

Tui is the world's largest tour operator, running high-street travel agencies under the Thomson and First Choice brands, writes Murad Ahmed.But its chief executive Fritz Joussen says the “end game” is to morph into a different kind of business — less reliant on selling package holidays and more focused on owning and operating hotels and cruise ships.

據(jù)英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》穆拉德·艾哈邁德(Murad Ahmed)報(bào)道，途易(Tui)是世界最大旅游公司，以Thomson和First Choice等品牌經(jīng)營(yíng)實(shí)體旅行社。但其首席執(zhí)行官弗里茨·茹森(Fritz Joussen)表示，“終局”是轉(zhuǎn)變商業(yè)模式——減少對(duì)度假套餐銷(xiāo)售的依賴(lài)，更著重?fù)碛泻瓦\(yùn)營(yíng)酒店和游輪。

Henry Hartveldt, founder of Atmosphere Research, says travel agencies will not wither away completely, but do need to change.“The ones that survive will be true experts,” he says.“They could be used to book a significant trip — a honeymoon, a significant family getaway, or a complex journey like planning a safari.

亨利·哈特費(fèi)爾特(Henry Hartveldt)表示，旅行社不會(huì)完全消亡，但的確需要改變。“那些能夠存活下來(lái)的旅行社將是真正的專(zhuān)家，”他說(shuō)：“人們可以通過(guò)它們來(lái)預(yù)訂一次特別的行程，如蜜月旅行或特別的家庭度假，或者籌劃游獵之旅這樣的復(fù)雜行程?！?/p>

“They will have found a niche and use digital tools to make sure people know who they are, as well as help their clients book… The question for the travel agency is do they need a retail storefront? To be honest, most don't.”

它們將發(fā)掘出一個(gè)小眾市場(chǎng)，并且在幫助客戶(hù)預(yù)訂的同時(shí)，也利用數(shù)字工具來(lái)確保人們了解它們的存在……對(duì)旅行社來(lái)說(shuō)，問(wèn)題是它們是否需要零售門(mén)店？老實(shí)說(shuō)，大部分旅行社并不需要?！?/p>

2.小型零部件生產(chǎn)商和分銷(xiāo)商

擾亂因素：3D打印機(jī)（3D printers）

常去音樂(lè)會(huì)的人都知道，比起取票或者希望票能夠按時(shí)寄到，現(xiàn)場(chǎng)打印門(mén)票更容易。企業(yè)將很快意識(shí)到，同樣的道理也適用于零部件、設(shè)備和電子產(chǎn)品。

Bosch Rexroth, the drive and control unit of the private German electronics group, projects that in five to 10 years up to 40 per cent of the manufacturing equipment it uses could be printed instead of purchased.

私有的德國(guó)電子集團(tuán)博世(Bosch)旗下的傳動(dòng)和控制公司博世力士樂(lè)(Bosch Rexroth)預(yù)測(cè)，在5到10年后，該公司可能打印，而非購(gòu)買(mǎi)多達(dá)40%的制造設(shè)備。

In a demonstration of the latest methods this year, HP printed a lightweight quarter-pound chain link in less than 30 minutes — then attached it to a hoist and lifted up a car.

2016年，在對(duì)最新方法的展示中，惠普(HP)在不到30分鐘的時(shí)間里打印出一個(gè)重四分之一磅的輕質(zhì)鏈條，然后將這個(gè)鏈條連接到一臺(tái)卷?yè)P(yáng)機(jī)上，吊起一輛汽車(chē)。

Dr Hoevel says equipment manufacturing could become up to 60 per cent cheaper than conventional methods used today.

赫費(fèi)爾博士表示，使用3D打印技術(shù)，設(shè)備的制造成本可能比使用今天的常規(guī)辦法低廉至多60%。

3.汽車(chē)保險(xiǎn)公司

擾亂因素：無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)（Driverless cars）

想象一下這樣的未來(lái)：一列列的無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)安靜和小心地在城市和鄉(xiāng)村行駛，無(wú)縫接送乘客，道路上的車(chē)輛更少，這些車(chē)輛發(fā)生的碰撞事故也更少。

For some, this is utopia.For the world's insurers it may be just the opposite.Motor insurance is one of the mainstays of the industry.It generates about $260bn in annual premiums for major global insurers and $17bn in profits, according to research from Morgan Stanley and Boston Consulting Group.They estimate that the motor insurance industry has a market value of about $200bn.

對(duì)一些人來(lái)說(shuō)，這樣的場(chǎng)景猶如烏托邦一樣美好。但對(duì)全世界的保險(xiǎn)公司而言可能恰恰相反。汽車(chē)保險(xiǎn)是保險(xiǎn)業(yè)的支柱之一。根據(jù)摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和波士頓咨詢(xún)集團(tuán)(BCG)的研究，汽車(chē)保險(xiǎn)每年為全球各大保險(xiǎn)公司帶來(lái)約2600億美元的保費(fèi)收入，170億美元的利潤(rùn)。它們估計(jì)，汽車(chē)保險(xiǎn)業(yè)的市場(chǎng)價(jià)值達(dá)到約2000億美元。

New technology, the analysts say, puts a big chunk of that under threat in a variety of ways.First, fewer cars and fewer accidents mean less demand for insurance.In mature economies the market size could shrink by more than 80 per cent by 2040.Second, the insurance that is needed will be bought by companies such as car manufacturers, rather than by consumers.And as carmakers and tech companies get better at collecting and using data, they may be in a stronger position to sell insurance than the insurance industry itself.

分析師們表示，新技術(shù)以多種方式讓汽車(chē)保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)的很大一塊遭受威脅。首先，上路的汽車(chē)更少，汽車(chē)的事故也更少，這意味著對(duì)汽車(chē)保險(xiǎn)的需求減少了。到2040年，在成熟的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，汽車(chē)保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)的規(guī)?？赡芸s水逾80%。第二，所需要的保險(xiǎn)將會(huì)由汽車(chē)制造商等企業(yè)購(gòu)買(mǎi)，而不是由消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買(mǎi)。而隨著汽車(chē)制造商和科技企業(yè)改進(jìn)數(shù)據(jù)的收集和應(yīng)用，在銷(xiāo)售保險(xiǎn)上，它們可能處于比保險(xiǎn)行業(yè)本身更有利的地位。

Some insurers are starting to react to the changing landscape.In the UK, Axa has joined a number of government-backed groups that are looking at how best to introduce driverless technology.In Japan, Mitsui Sumitomo and Tokio Marine, two of the biggest insurance groups, are examining new types of insurance products that might be needed.

一些保險(xiǎn)公司開(kāi)始對(duì)風(fēng)云變幻的市場(chǎng)格局做出反應(yīng)。在英國(guó)，安盛(Axa)加入一些得到政府支持的組織的行列，探索如何最好地引入無(wú)人駕駛技術(shù)。在日本，最大的兩家保險(xiǎn)公司三井住友(Mitsui Sumitomo)和東京海上(Tokio Marine)正在考察市場(chǎng)可能需求的新型保險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品。

4.理財(cái)顧問(wèn)

擾亂因素：“機(jī)器人顧問(wèn)”網(wǎng)站(robo-adviser websites)

傳統(tǒng)理財(cái)產(chǎn)業(yè)監(jiān)管更加嚴(yán)格，成本更高，自動(dòng)化“機(jī)器人顧問(wèn)”網(wǎng)站成為投資者新寵。

Traditional financial advisers have encountered a blizzard of regulation in recent years and now face being usurped by algorithms.

近年遭遇一場(chǎng)監(jiān)管風(fēng)暴的傳統(tǒng)理財(cái)顧問(wèn)，現(xiàn)在又面臨被算法排擠的窘境。

New rules introduced in 2013 fundamentally altered advisers' business model, banning fund houses from paying them commission and increasing the minimum level of qualifications advisers should have.

2013年出臺(tái)的新規(guī)從根本上改變了理財(cái)顧問(wèn)的商業(yè)模式，新規(guī)禁止基金公司向他們支付傭金，并抬高了理財(cái)顧問(wèn)的資格門(mén)檻。

The commission ban, which removed advisers' main source of income, forced those remaining in the business to either raise fees charged to retail investors or increase the minimum investment sum they would offer advice on.

傭金禁令切斷了理財(cái)顧問(wèn)的主要收入來(lái)源，迫使剩余從業(yè)者要么上調(diào)對(duì)散戶(hù)投資者的收費(fèi)，要么上調(diào)他們?cè)敢馓峁┳稍?xún)的最低投資額門(mén)檻。

Suddenly unable to afford their adviser, swaths of investors began to turn to one of the new breed of “robo-advisers”, which emerged in 2012.

大批投資者突然間負(fù)擔(dān)不起他們的顧問(wèn)，開(kāi)始轉(zhuǎn)向2012年興起的新事物——“機(jī)器人顧問(wèn)”。

5.汽車(chē)修理廠

擾亂因素：電動(dòng)汽車(chē)（Electric vehicles）

電動(dòng)汽車(chē)除了更加環(huán)保之外，故障也很少出現(xiàn)。是否意味著汽車(chē)修理廠即將倒閉？

Electric cars are often marketed to consumers on the basis that they are cleaner and cheaper to run than petrol or diesel rivals, writes Peter Campbell.

彼得·坎貝爾(Peter Campbell)寫(xiě)道，電動(dòng)汽車(chē)向消費(fèi)者推銷(xiāo)的主要賣(mài)點(diǎn)，往往是它們運(yùn)行起來(lái)比汽油車(chē)或柴油車(chē)更環(huán)保、成本更低。

But because they contain virtually no moving parts — other than the wheels — battery cars boast another advantage: there is almost nothing to go wrong under the bonnet.

但由于電動(dòng)汽車(chē)除車(chē)輪以外幾乎沒(méi)有活動(dòng)部件，它們還有一大優(yōu)點(diǎn)可夸口：其發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)罩下幾乎沒(méi)有什么部件會(huì)發(fā)生故障。

While that may be good news for motorists, it spells trouble for the thousands of garages that make a living servicing and fixing petrol or diesel cars.

這對(duì)駕駛者來(lái)說(shuō)可能是個(gè)好消息，卻給成千上萬(wàn)依靠保養(yǎng)汽油車(chē)或柴油車(chē)謀生的汽車(chē)修理廠帶來(lái)麻煩。

The aftersales sector is not only a huge source of jobs within the industry, it is also one of the most profitable parts of the motor sector.

售后服務(wù)部門(mén)不僅是汽車(chē)業(yè)一個(gè)巨大的就業(yè)來(lái)源，也是該行業(yè)最賺錢(qián)的領(lǐng)域之一。

詞匯總結(jié)

morph [m??f]

v.在屏幕上變換圖像；改變

But its chief executive Fritz Joussen says the“end game” is to morph into a different kind of business.

但其首席執(zhí)行官弗里茨·茹森(Fritz Joussen)表示，“終局”是轉(zhuǎn)變商業(yè)模式。

utopia [ju:'t?upi?]

n.烏托邦（理想中最美好的社會(huì)）；理想國(guó)

For some, this is utopia.

對(duì)一些人來(lái)說(shuō)，這樣的場(chǎng)景猶如烏托邦一樣美好。

premium ['pri?m??m]

n.額外費(fèi)用；獎(jiǎng)金；保險(xiǎn)費(fèi);(商)溢價(jià)

adj.高價(jià)的；優(yōu)質(zhì)的

It generates about $260bn in annual premiums for major global insurers and $17bn in profits

汽車(chē)保險(xiǎn)每年為全球各大保險(xiǎn)公司帶來(lái)約2600億美元的保費(fèi)收入

financial adviser

財(cái)務(wù)咨詢(xún)師；財(cái)政顧問(wèn)

Traditional financial advisers have encountered a blizzard of regulation in recent years and now face being usurped by algorithms.

近年遭遇一場(chǎng)監(jiān)管風(fēng)暴的傳統(tǒng)理財(cái)顧問(wèn)，現(xiàn)在又面臨被算法排擠的窘境。

diesel ['di?z(?)l]

n.柴油機(jī)；柴油

Electric cars are often marketed to consumers on the basis that they are cleaner and cheaper to run than petrol or diesel rivals.

電動(dòng)汽車(chē)向消費(fèi)者推銷(xiāo)的主要賣(mài)點(diǎn)，往往是它們運(yùn)行起來(lái)比汽油車(chē)或柴油車(chē)更環(huán)保、成本更低。