科普時(shí)間：中國(guó)資本外流究竟是什么？

輕松有趣的手繪漫畫為你勾勒出答案：大家都在討論的中國(guó)資本外流究竟是什么？到底有多少錢正大舉流出中國(guó)？中國(guó)采取了哪些類似“治水”的政策來堵住這些洞口？

小編聽譯的本視頻全部中英文文本在這里，供大家參考。

China's rulers are used to battling great tides of liquidity that threaten to wash their authority away.So much so that the country's earliest political stars were those who managed to tame the floods unleashed by the fearsome Yellow River.

中國(guó)的統(tǒng)治者曾長(zhǎng)期與兇猛的洪水做抗?fàn)帲苑劳{到他們的權(quán)威統(tǒng)治。以至于，中國(guó)最早的一批政治明星，都是那些成功治理了黃河大泛濫的人才。

Even today, the character for political control shows the sign for water in the form of three drops next to the sign for a platform or a river dyke.

即便在今天，漢字政治管治里的“治”字也是由三點(diǎn)水加上寓意堤壩的臺(tái)字構(gòu)成。

Now though, China is facing a different sort of liquidity challenge.Torrents of money are flooding out of the country to find safer havens abroad.Some of this money is in flight from an anti-corruption crackdown, but most of it comes from investors trying to get more bang for their buck overseas than they would inside China.

不過，今天中國(guó)則面臨著另一種流動(dòng)性威脅：海量資金正要大舉涌出該國(guó)，向海外尋求更為安全的避風(fēng)港。其中一些資金是為了躲避反腐行動(dòng)，但大部分資金是來自國(guó)內(nèi)的投資者，他們希望通過海外投資獲得更大收益，而不僅僅只在中國(guó)境內(nèi)。

Goldman Sachs estimates that in a single year, people or companies took or smuggled out of the country as much as 1.1 trillion U.S.dollars.That is quite a chunk of cash.

據(jù)高盛估算，僅僅在一個(gè)年度內(nèi)，個(gè)人或公司攜帶或走私出境的錢，就達(dá)到了1.1萬億美元。那可真的是一大筆錢。

To put it into context, 1.1 trillion dollars would buy a fairly reasonable car for about 100 million Chinese families, or pay all of the yearly wages for about 122 million Chinese factory workers, or buy you about half of everything that China exported to the world last year - an awful lot of stuff.

如果把它放在一個(gè)情境下來描述的話，1.1萬億美元可以為1億中國(guó)家庭每家買一輛相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)的汽車，或者為1.22億中國(guó)工人支付一整年的工資，或者買下去年中國(guó)對(duì)外出口貨物的一半——可以買下的東西數(shù)量十分驚人。

For a developing country like China, therefore, hemorrhaging that amount of money is really painful.

然而，對(duì)于像中國(guó)這樣一個(gè)發(fā)展中國(guó)家來說，流失這么一大筆錢，真的很痛。

This outward gush also depresses the value of the Chinese currency, the Renminbi, against the mighty US dollar.And this has aroused the ire of none other than Donald Trump, who has threatened to brand China a currency manipulator and imposed stiff tariffs on Chinese exports to America.So what is Beijing doing about it?

如此規(guī)模的資本外流還將壓低中國(guó)貨幣的價(jià)值，導(dǎo)致人民幣對(duì)強(qiáng)勢(shì)美元的貶值。而這又將直接激怒特朗普，他威脅稱要將中國(guó)納入?yún)R率操縱國(guó)，還將對(duì)中國(guó)出口到美國(guó)的商品征收高額關(guān)稅。那么，北京方面迄今為止是如何回應(yīng)的呢？

圖中特朗普為中國(guó)烙上匯率操縱國(guó)CM（currency manipulator）的烙印。

Interestingly, its reaction seems to draw more from the flood control techniques of 5,000 years ago than it does from modern economic theory.

有趣的是，中國(guó)的反應(yīng)更多像是來自五千年前的治洪術(shù)，而不是來自現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論。

First up, they are plugging the holes in the dyke through which Chinese money is flowing abroad.The government is scrutinising and in some cases and blocking any overseas investment by a company worth more than 5 million dollars.This vigilance has contributed to a collapse in the number of overseas deals by Chinese bidders recently.Foreign companies operating in China are also finding it increasingly tricky to send their profits home.

第一步，他們先是堵住堤壩上的漏洞——國(guó)內(nèi)的資金就是通過這些漏洞流向海外。中國(guó)政府開始仔細(xì)檢查對(duì)外投資，在有些案例中，價(jià)值500萬美元以上的公司海外投資甚至被禁止。這樣的警戒措施客觀上導(dǎo)致近期中國(guó)出價(jià)者發(fā)起的海外交易數(shù)量大幅減少，在華經(jīng)營(yíng)的外資公司也發(fā)現(xiàn)，要把利潤(rùn)匯出到本國(guó)更具挑戰(zhàn)了。

The second strategy in liquidity management is to divert the flow.This is an enduring ploy.Even in modern times, when a river looks like it's going to burst its banks and engulf a big city, the authorities will intentionally breach the dykes in a more rural area upstream, so that that area gets flooded instead.The monetary equivalent of this has been playing out in the country's short-term money markets.Authorities have intervened to raise domestic interest rates there by enticing more investors to keep their money inside China.

中國(guó)治水的第二個(gè)策略是分流。這將會(huì)是長(zhǎng)久之策，因?yàn)榫退闶乾F(xiàn)代社會(huì)，一條河流看起來馬上就要決堤并吞沒大城市時(shí)，政府都會(huì)刻意在堤壩上開個(gè)口子，把水引向上游的村落地區(qū)。這樣那個(gè)村落地區(qū)就會(huì)代替大城市被淹沒。在貨幣政策上，類似的做法就用在了中國(guó)的短期貨幣市場(chǎng)。政府介入以提高國(guó)內(nèi)利率，誘使更多的投資者把錢留在中國(guó)境內(nèi)。

Of course, there is collateral damage, just as there is when a rural area gets inundated through an intentional breach of a river's bank.In this case, the losers are those Chinese companies that finance themselves by issuing debt in the money markets.They are having to pay more and some are heading towards default.With so much debt around, a default Domino where one leads to another is a serious risk.

當(dāng)然，這樣做也有一些附帶損害，就像那個(gè)故事里，村落地區(qū)因人為制造的決堤而受損，如果這樣的話，其中賠本的就會(huì)是那些在貨幣市場(chǎng)上發(fā)債融資的中國(guó)公司自己。他們將會(huì)被迫支付更高的利息，一些人會(huì)走向違約。隨著大量此類的債務(wù)累積起來，違約游戲的多米諾骨牌就會(huì)一個(gè)接一個(gè)倒下，這將是一個(gè)重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

But all Chinese know that floods create losers, that is why the Yellow River is known as China's sorrow.Beijing's calculation is that it needs to inflict some pain to ease the torrent of capital outflows that threaten to sink the Renminbi and exacerbate tensions with Donald Trump.

不過，所有的中國(guó)人都知道，洪水會(huì)制造失敗者。也正因此，黃河又被稱為中國(guó)之殤。北京方面打的算盤是，它必須遭受一些痛苦，以緩解大量的資本外流。因?yàn)檫@可以減緩人民幣市值不穩(wěn)定的威脅，同時(shí)也不至于進(jìn)一步加劇與特朗普的緊張關(guān)系。

詞匯總結(jié)

so much so that 到這樣的程度以至于

tame[te?m]

v.馴服 adj.馴服的，順從的

fearsome['f??s（?）m]

adj.可怕的，極大的

China's rulers are used to battling great tides of liquidity that threaten to wash their authority away.So much so that the country's earliest political stars were those who managed to tame the floods unleashed by the fearsome Yellow River.

中國(guó)的統(tǒng)治者曾長(zhǎng)期與兇猛的洪水做抗?fàn)帲苑劳{到他們的權(quán)威統(tǒng)治。以至于，中國(guó)最早的一批政治明星，都是那些成功治理了黃河大泛濫的人才。

dyke[da?k]

n.堤壩，壕溝 （美語寫作dike）

Even today, the character for political control shows the sign for water in the form of three drops next to the sign for a platform or a river dyke.

即便在今天，漢字政治管治里的“治”字也是由三點(diǎn)水加上寓意堤壩的臺(tái)字構(gòu)成。

in flight from 逃避

more bang for the buck （習(xí)慣用語）獲取更多收益或價(jià)值

Some of this money is in flight from an anti-corruption crackdown, but most of it comes from investors trying to get more bang for their buck overseas than they would inside China.

其中一些資金是為了躲避反腐行動(dòng)，但大部分資金是來自國(guó)內(nèi)的投資者，他們希望通過海外投資獲得更大收益，而不僅僅只在中國(guó)境內(nèi)。

smuggle['sm?g（?）l]

v.走私，偷運(yùn)

Goldman Sachs estimates that in a single year, people or companies took or smuggled out of the country as much as 1.1 trillion U.S.dollars.That is quite a chunk of cash.

據(jù)高盛估算，僅僅在一個(gè)年度內(nèi)，個(gè)人或公司攜帶或走私出境的錢，就達(dá)到了1.1萬億美元。那可真的是一大筆錢。

hemorrhaging['hem?r?d???]

v.出血，流血；損失（hemorrhage的ing形式）

For a developing country like China, therefore, hemorrhaging that amount of money is really painful.

然而，對(duì)于像中國(guó)這樣一個(gè)發(fā)展中國(guó)家來說，流失這么一大筆錢，真的很痛。

collateral damage 附帶損害

Of course, there is collateral damage, just as there is when a rural area gets inundated through an intentional breach of a river's bank.

當(dāng)然，這樣做也有一些附帶損害，就像那個(gè)故事里，村落地區(qū)因人為制造的決堤而受損。

inflict some pain to ease… 遭受一些痛苦，以緩解……

exacerbate[?g'z?s?be?t; ek's?s-]

v.使加劇；使惡化

Beijing's calculation is that it needs to inflict some pain to ease the torrent of capital outflows that threaten to sink the Renminbi and exacerbate tensions with Donald Trump.

北京方面打的算盤是，它必須遭受一些痛苦，以緩解大量的資本外流。因?yàn)檫@可以減緩人民幣市值不穩(wěn)定的威脅，同時(shí)也不至于進(jìn)一步加劇與特朗普的緊張關(guān)系。