人生不設(shè)限·我的“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理可笑法則”

為了幫助你處理人生一定會(huì)遇到的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，我總結(jié)出“力克的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理可笑法則”——那個(gè)，你知道的，讀的時(shí)候“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”自負(fù)。

To help you deal with the risks you'll face in your life, I've put together Nick's Ridiculous Rules for Managing Risk. Read them at your own . . . well, you know.

 

1.試水深

1. Test the waters.

非洲有句古老的諺語(yǔ)說(shuō)，沒(méi)有人會(huì)用兩只腳去試河水的深度。無(wú)論你是想嘗試一段新戀情、想搬去另一座城市、想找一份新工作，哪怕只是替自家客廳換上新的顏色，在大動(dòng)作之前先來(lái)點(diǎn)小測(cè)試——在還沒(méi)弄清楚你到底要跳進(jìn)哪里之前，別急著一頭栽進(jìn)去。

An ancient African proverb says no one tests the depth of the river with both feet. If you are considering a new relationship, a move to another city, a new job, or even a new color for the living room, do a little test before making a big move. Don't rush in without a good sense of what you are getting into.

 

 

2.知道多少做多少

2. Go with what you know.

這不是說(shuō)你永遠(yuǎn)不要嘗試新事物、認(rèn)識(shí)新的人，而是說(shuō)你可以借此多做一些功課，來(lái)降低賭注的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。一旦你認(rèn)為自己已經(jīng)掌握了某個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)的利弊得失等所有方面，就該帶著自信展開(kāi)行動(dòng)。即使你無(wú)法知道所有的狀況，也該知道自己到底不知道些什么——有時(shí)，這樣也夠了。

This doesn't mean you should never try new experiences or new people; it simply means that you can lower the odds by doing your homework. Once you think you have a handle on the upside, downside, and every aspect of an opportunity, you should have the confidence to make a move. Even if you don't know it all, you should know what you don't know—and sometimes that's good enough.

 

3.檢查時(shí)間表

3. Check the timer.

有時(shí)候，等到合適的時(shí)間點(diǎn)才行動(dòng)也可以降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，增加成功的可能性。你應(yīng)該不會(huì)想在酷寒的嚴(yán)冬中開(kāi)冰淇淋店吧?像我進(jìn)入電影事業(yè)，第一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)不適合我，但是幾個(gè)月后，非常適合我的角色出現(xiàn)了，時(shí)機(jī)也對(duì)。有時(shí)候，多點(diǎn)耐心是值得的，給自己一點(diǎn)時(shí)間思考，別急著作決定。有什么事，睡覺(jué)前寫下來(lái)，第二天早上醒來(lái)后再看一看。你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，經(jīng)過(guò)一個(gè)晚上，事情看起來(lái)會(huì)很不一樣，我就這樣做過(guò)很多次。永遠(yuǎn)要仔細(xì)評(píng)估時(shí)機(jī)對(duì)不對(duì)，決定在一個(gè)困難的時(shí)間點(diǎn)采取行動(dòng)之前，還是要想想是不是有其他更好的時(shí)機(jī)。

Often you can greatly improve the odds by waiting for the right time to make your move. You wouldn't want to start a new ice cream business in the dead of winter, would you? My first offer to enter the movie business just wasn't for me, but a few months later the role was perfect and the timing was right. Sometimes patience can pay off. Don't be afraid to sleep on it. Write it down before you go to bed, and then read it again in the morning. It's amazing how different it can appear when you let it sit overnight. I have done this many times. Always consider your timing and whether there might be a better time before you make a move on the steep edge of opportunity.

 

 

4.尋求第二意見(jiàn)

4. Get a second opinion.

有時(shí)我們會(huì)去嘗試一件超過(guò)自己能力許多的事，那是因?yàn)槲覀兿嘈乓欢ㄒR上做這件事才行。當(dāng)你發(fā)現(xiàn)自己急著進(jìn)入一個(gè)詭譎刁鉆的領(lǐng)域時(shí)，請(qǐng)往后退幾步，去找你信任的朋友或人生導(dǎo)師，請(qǐng)他們幫你評(píng)估情勢(shì)，因?yàn)槟愕母星橐呀?jīng)超過(guò)理智，可能不適合單獨(dú)作決定。在美國(guó)我會(huì)去找貝塔叔叔，在澳大利亞則是找爸爸。三個(gè)臭皮匠，勝過(guò)一個(gè)諸葛亮，當(dāng)某件事的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)太高時(shí)，請(qǐng)不要執(zhí)意做江湖獨(dú)行俠。

Sometimes we take bigger chances than we should because we're so convinced that we absolutely must do a certain thing right now. If you find yourself rushing into tricky territory, take a couple steps back, call a friend or mentor you trust, and ask for help in assessing the situation, because your emotions may be outrunning your good sense. I go to my uncle Batta here and to my father in Australia. There is wisdom in a council of many. If the stakes are high, you don't have to be the Lone Ranger.

 

 

5.為看不見(jiàn)的后果作準(zhǔn)備

5. Prepare for the unseen consequences.

我們的行動(dòng)總是會(huì)有看不見(jiàn)的影響——我再重復(fù)一次，是總是——特別是那些超越極限的行動(dòng)。我們無(wú)法預(yù)見(jiàn)所有后果，所以要盡可能周密地考慮到每個(gè)角度，然后為意想不到的狀況作好準(zhǔn)備。我在做經(jīng)營(yíng)計(jì)劃時(shí)，會(huì)高估成本、低估利潤(rùn)，以防事情進(jìn)展得不如預(yù)期。如果一切都進(jìn)展得很順利，資金有富余也沒(méi)害處啊。

There are always, I repeat always, unseen consequences for our actions, especially those that push the envelope. You can never foresee all the repercussions, so you should do your best to consider every angle and then prepare yourself for the unexpected. When I do a business plan, I overestimate costs and underestimate my profit to create a buffer, just in case the business doesn't progress as well as I hope it will. If all goes well, it never hurts to have the extra money.