It Can't Happen Here was the title of Sinclair Lewis's celebrated 1935 novel about fascism in America.It didn't then, and many well-informed Americans—Republicans and Democrats—believed that the election of Donald Trump wouldn't happen either.
《不可能在這里發(fā)生》是辛克萊爾·劉易斯1935年發(fā)表的關(guān)于法西斯主義在美國的著名小說。當(dāng)時確實沒發(fā)生,而美國的很多有識之士——共和黨和民主黨都有——也曾認(rèn)為唐納德·特朗普不可能當(dāng)選。
Then came the night of Mr Trump's triumph.It was one that few with even the faintest political awareness will ever forget.Almost everyone turned out to be wrong—everyone, that is, except the man who apparently lived in a fantasy world.“It is going to be Brexit times five,” Mr Trump said during the campaign.For once he may have been understating things.
接著迎來了特朗普的勝利之夜。那是連最不具備政治意識的人也永遠(yuǎn)難忘的少數(shù)幾個重大夜晚之一。幾乎每個人都猜錯了——或者說,除了那位明顯生活在夢幻世界的人以外的所有人。“這帶來的影響將是英國退歐的五倍,”特朗普在競選期間曾經(jīng)說道。那一次,他或許低估了事實。
Each circumstance may be unique but they are bound by powerful trends.The biggest is a general revulsion against established politics.Closely related is the collapse in trust for the media—or the Lügenpresse as Mr Trump's alt-right supporters call it, in a reprisal of Hitler's attacks on the “lying press”.
這些事件發(fā)生的舞臺或許各不相同,但是它們都被強大趨勢捆綁在一起。最大的趨勢是公眾對建制派政治的普遍反感。與之緊密相連的趨勢是公眾對媒體的信任坍塌——或者像特朗普的另類右翼支持者所稱的“說謊的媒體”(Lügenpresse),重現(xiàn)了當(dāng)年希特勒對“說謊的媒體”發(fā)起的攻擊。
A third is a rejection of globalisation.Mr Trump's vow to “put America first” echoes what his European counterparts say about their countries.The older, whiter, non-urban and heavily male coalition that helped to elect him is strikingly similar to populist demographics in Europe.
第三個趨勢是拒絕全球化。特朗普誓言“把美國放在首位”,與他在歐洲的同僚對本國說的話遙相呼應(yīng)。幫助特朗普勝選的人群——年齡較大、白人男性和非城市居民為主——與歐洲的民粹主義者在人口結(jié)構(gòu)上驚人地相似。
Mr Trump's most extravagant claim was that “I alone can fix it”—by which he meant the “rigged” system of special interests who curry favour with politicians to further their ends.
特朗普最張揚的說法是“只有我才能搞定”(I alone can fix it)——他指的是搞定目前受到特殊利益集團“操縱”的體制,這些利益集團通過拉攏政客來達(dá)到自己的目的。
Mr Trump was happy to admit he was one of those special interests, having contributed to both the Democratic and Republican parties during a lifetime of political shape-shifting.He also bragged of having avoided taxes.Yet he vowed to be an iconoclastic president in which no rules, institution or even constitutional principle would be sacred.
特朗普樂于承認(rèn)他是特殊利益集團之一,在他一生的政治變身中,他為民主黨和共和黨都做過貢獻(xiàn)。他還吹噓過自己的避稅行為。不過,他發(fā)誓將成為一名打破常規(guī)的總統(tǒng),不會懼怕任何規(guī)則、機構(gòu)、甚至憲法原則。
If he meant it, the long-term damage to American democracy could be incalculable.Yet the thrice-married Mr Trump is nothing if not nimble.He can alter his stance with the same alacrity as he drops negotiating positions with creditors.The only thread is promotion of the Trump brand.Beyond that, does he have a core philosophy?
如果此話當(dāng)真,美國的民主制度可能遭受無法估量的長期損害。不過,結(jié)過3次婚的特朗普極其滑頭。他可以敏捷地改變立場,就像他在與債權(quán)人談判時善于放棄談判立場那樣。唯一不變的主線是推廣特朗普這個品牌。除此之外,他有任何核心理念嗎?