研究人員表示，有一種方式可以使未來(lái)的干旱減少?zèng)_突

研究人員表示，有一種方式可以使未來(lái)的干旱減少?zèng)_突

It's often assumed that as climate change worsens, so too will the world's risk of violent armed conflict. Over the years, many experts have warned that as weather becomes more extreme and crop yields shrink, we could begin fighting for resources and land with greater frequency and ferocity.

人們通常認(rèn)為，隨著氣候變化加劇，世界發(fā)生暴力武裝沖突的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也會(huì)加大。多年來(lái)，許多專家警告說(shuō)，隨著天氣變得更加極端，農(nóng)作物產(chǎn)量下降，我們可能會(huì)開(kāi)始更頻繁、更激烈地爭(zhēng)奪資源和土地。

Still, there are those who disagree. A new paper now argues the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict is more complex than we often think, especially since humans can change their strategies based on pros and cons.

盡管如此，還是有人持反對(duì)意見(jiàn)。一篇新的論文認(rèn)為，氣候變化和武裝沖突之間的關(guān)系比我們通常認(rèn)為的要復(fù)雜得多，特別是因?yàn)槿祟?lèi)可以根據(jù)利弊來(lái)改變自己的戰(zhàn)略。

To test these assumptions, Muller-Itten and her colleagues used an opportunity cost model created in 2009 to look at the foundations of the idea that a drier future means more conflict.

為了驗(yàn)證這些假設(shè)，Muller-Itten和她的同事使用了一個(gè)2009年建立的機(jī)會(huì)成本模型，來(lái)研究一個(gè)更干燥的未來(lái)意味著更多沖突的觀點(diǎn)的基礎(chǔ)。

It's important to note that the authors make clear this should not be considered a tool for "quantitative projections" - or predictions - in any specific context. Instead, the paper is trying to investigate the benefits and risks of conflict over water.

值得注意的是，作者明確表示，在任何特定情況下，這都不應(yīng)被視為“定量預(yù)測(cè)”或預(yù)測(cè)的工具。相反，這篇論文試圖調(diào)查水資源沖突的好處和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

Considering two groups of farmers who might fight for control over limited land and resources, the authors tested what would happen under various rainfall scenarios.

考慮到兩組可能爭(zhēng)奪有限土地和資源的農(nóng)民，作者測(cè)試了在不同降雨情景下會(huì)發(fā)生什么。

While the findings certainly suggest that droughts can lead to human conflict, there was no support for the idea that these conflicts will always arise along with water scarcity.

雖然研究結(jié)果肯定表明干旱會(huì)導(dǎo)致人類(lèi)沖突，但沒(méi)有證據(jù)表明這些沖突會(huì)隨著缺水而出現(xiàn)。

During anomalous years of low rainfall, the model predicted an increase in conflict. But when there was a systematic decrease in water availability, the model actually predicted a decrease in armed violence.

在降雨量少的反常年份，該模型預(yù)測(cè)沖突會(huì)增加。但當(dāng)水供應(yīng)系統(tǒng)出現(xiàn)下降時(shí)，該模型實(shí)際上預(yù)測(cè)了武裝暴力的減少。

In other words, climate change may come to define a new normal that we adjust to as rational agents. Farmers, for instance, may see the opportunity cost of attack as too high if another bad year of rainfall is expected.

換句話說(shuō)，氣候變化可能會(huì)定義一個(gè)新的常態(tài)，我們作為理性的行動(dòng)者來(lái)適應(yīng)它。例如，農(nóng)民可能會(huì)認(rèn)為，如果下一個(gè)糟糕的降雨年即將到來(lái)，襲擊的機(jī)會(huì)成本就太高了。

The authors emphasise that this is a "strong simplification of reality", but their results do suggest a more complicated reality than the linear relationship we assume exists between drought and conflict.

作者強(qiáng)調(diào)，這是“對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí)的強(qiáng)烈簡(jiǎn)化”，但他們的研究結(jié)果確實(shí)表明，現(xiàn)實(shí)比我們假設(shè)的干旱與沖突之間存在的線性關(guān)系更為復(fù)雜。

If precipitation becomes more variable, as climate models predict, conflicts will not necessarily become more frequent, the team concludes.

研究小組得出結(jié)論:“如果降水像氣候模型預(yù)測(cè)的那樣變得更加多變，那么沖突不一定會(huì)變得更加頻繁。”

Rather, conflict likelihood can go either up or down, as agents adapt and adjust their response to the new income distribution.

“相反，隨著代理人適應(yīng)和調(diào)整他們對(duì)新收入分配的反應(yīng)，沖突的可能性可能上升或下降。”

The research itself is narrow in scope and doesn't account for all the impacts drought can have on human conflict.

這項(xiàng)研究本身的范圍很窄，并沒(méi)有考慮到干旱對(duì)人類(lèi)沖突的所有影響。

In fact, a different study published in Environmental Research Letters this week indicates there are "robust correlations" between seasonal climate and violent crime in the US, and the country can expect up to 3.2 million additional violent crimes between 2020 and 2099, depending on whether we manage to curb our greenhouse gas emissions.

事實(shí)上,不同的研究發(fā)表在《環(huán)境研究快報(bào)》本周表示之間有相關(guān)性的季節(jié)性氣候和暴力犯罪在美國(guó),和國(guó)家可以預(yù)期320萬(wàn)額外的暴力犯罪在2020年至2099年之間,這取決于我們?cè)O(shè)法遏制溫室氣體的排放。

What's clear is that findings such as these indicate we truly live in a changing world. As global temperatures and tensions continue to heat up, the more we can predict our future, the better.

很明顯，這樣的發(fā)現(xiàn)表明我們確實(shí)生活在一個(gè)不斷變化的世界。隨著全球氣溫和緊張局勢(shì)持續(xù)升溫，我們對(duì)未來(lái)的預(yù)測(cè)越多越好。

The study was published in PNAS.

這項(xiàng)研究發(fā)表在《美國(guó)國(guó)家科學(xué)院院刊》上。