科學(xué)家警告說(shuō)，可能引發(fā)全球危機(jī)的臨界點(diǎn)現(xiàn)在正在發(fā)揮作用

科學(xué)家警告說(shuō)，可能引發(fā)全球危機(jī)的臨界點(diǎn)現(xiàn)在正在發(fā)揮作用

Several active 'tipping points' of irreversible change in the world's climate system threaten to unleash a global cascade of events that amounts to a planetary emergency, scientists warn.

科學(xué)家們警告說(shuō)，全球氣候系統(tǒng)發(fā)生不可逆轉(zhuǎn)變化的幾個(gè)活躍的“臨界點(diǎn)”有可能引發(fā)一系列全球性事件，導(dǎo)致全球進(jìn)入緊急狀態(tài)。

The concept of tipping points was introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) just over 20 years ago, but researchers now warn that already nine of these vulnerable environmental thresholds are in very real danger of being breached – and much sooner than was ever anticipated.

“臨界點(diǎn)”的概念是政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)(IPCC)在20多年前提出的，但研究人員現(xiàn)在警告說(shuō)，在這些脆弱的環(huán)境臨界點(diǎn)中，已經(jīng)有9個(gè)面臨被突破的真正危險(xiǎn)——而且比預(yù)期的要早得多。

A decade ago we identified a suite of potential tipping points in the Earth system, now we see evidence that over half of them have been activated, says climate system researcher Tim Lenton from the University of Exeter in the UK.

英國(guó)埃克塞特大學(xué)的氣候系統(tǒng)研究員蒂姆·萊頓說(shuō):“十年前，我們確定了地球系統(tǒng)中的一系列潛在臨界點(diǎn)，現(xiàn)在我們看到的證據(jù)表明，超過(guò)一半的臨界點(diǎn)已經(jīng)被激活。”

The growing threat of rapid, irreversible changes means it is no longer responsible to wait and see. The situation is urgent and we need an emergency response.

“快速、不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的變化帶來(lái)的日益嚴(yán)重的威脅意味著，我們不再有責(zé)任坐視不管。情況緊急，我們需要緊急應(yīng)對(duì)。”

In a new research comment, Lenton and an international team of climate scientists warn that these tipping points – which many assumed were low-probability risks that might only be dangerous if global temperatures rose 5°C above pre-industrial levels – are in fact becoming exceeded at increases of 1–2°C.

在一項(xiàng)新的研究發(fā)表評(píng)論,萊頓和一個(gè)國(guó)際氣候科學(xué)家小組警告說(shuō),這些臨界點(diǎn)——許多人認(rèn)為是低概率的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),可能只有危險(xiǎn)如果全球氣溫上升5°C高于工業(yè)化前的水平——事實(shí)上成為超過(guò)增加1 - 2°C。

We think that several cryosphere tipping points are dangerously close, but mitigating greenhouse-gas emissions could still slow down the inevitable accumulation of impacts and help us to adapt, the authors write in their paper.

作者在他們的論文中寫道:“我們認(rèn)為，幾個(gè)冰凍圈臨界點(diǎn)已經(jīng)危險(xiǎn)地接近，但減少溫室氣體排放仍然可以減緩不可避免的影響積累，并幫助我們適應(yīng)。”

The nine active tipping points identified by the team include warming ice regions in the Arctic, Antarctica, and Greenland, in addition to dramatic changes underway in boreal forests, Atlantic Ocean currents, the Amazon rainforest, warm-water coral systems, and thawing permafrost.

該小組確定的9個(gè)活躍的臨界點(diǎn)包括北極、南極洲和格陵蘭島的變暖冰區(qū)，此外，北方森林、大西洋洋流、亞馬遜雨林、暖水珊瑚系統(tǒng)和融化的永久凍土層也正在發(fā)生巨大變化。

While some of these destabilised systems may appear to be unrelated to one another, the researchers warn increasing evidence suggests the disparate crises are actually linked together – and in fact are part of a global continuum of climate destabilisation that amplifies itself in numerous alarming scenarios.

雖然這些破壞穩(wěn)定的系統(tǒng)可能看起來(lái)彼此無(wú)關(guān)，但研究人員警告稱，越來(lái)越多的證據(jù)表明，這些不同的危機(jī)實(shí)際上是聯(lián)系在一起的——事實(shí)上，它們是全球氣候不穩(wěn)定連續(xù)體的一部分，在許多令人擔(dān)憂的場(chǎng)景中，這種不穩(wěn)定會(huì)自己放大。

As soon as one or two climate dominoes are knocked over, they push Earth towards others, says Earth systems scientist Will Steffen from the Australian National University.

澳大利亞國(guó)立大學(xué)的地球系統(tǒng)科學(xué)家威爾·史蒂芬說(shuō):“一旦一兩塊氣候多米諾骨牌被推倒，它們就會(huì)把地球推向其他地方。”

The findings are reported in Nature.

研究結(jié)果發(fā)表在《自然》雜志上。