FT社評(píng)：汽車業(yè)加速邁進(jìn)電動(dòng)車時(shí)代

Scantily clad women are already something of an anachronism in the vast hangars of the Frankfurt Motor Show. But anyone hankering after old-style petrolhead culture would have had greater cause for nostalgia at this year’s industry gathering. Some of the cars on display had no steering wheel. A considerably larger number had no traditional engine — a sign of the arms race under way as carmakers rush to develop autonomous and electric vehicles.

在法蘭克福車展的巨大展廳里，衣著暴露的車模已顯得有些過(guò)時(shí)。而今年車展更會(huì)觸動(dòng)老式汽油車擁躉們的懷舊情懷。一些展出的車型不見(jiàn)了方向盤。更多的展車沒(méi)有了傳統(tǒng)發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)——這預(yù)示著隨著汽車制造商們競(jìng)相開(kāi)發(fā)自動(dòng)駕駛汽車和電動(dòng)汽車，一場(chǎng)“軍備競(jìng)賽”已上演。

The speed of the shift is remarkable. Just a couple of years ago, the biggest carmakers were talking about electrification, but would typically have just one or two models on the stands. Now Renault-Nissan is set to produce 12 all-electric cars; Mercedes will offer electrified versions of all its cars by 2022. VW, the world’s biggest carmaker, says it will build 50 all-electric models by 2025 and electrify 300 models by 2030.

這一轉(zhuǎn)變速度驚人。就在幾年前，那些汽車制造巨頭雖已開(kāi)始談?wù)撾姎饣话阒粫?huì)推出一兩個(gè)車型。如今，雷諾-日產(chǎn)(Renault-Nissan)計(jì)劃生產(chǎn)12款純電動(dòng)車;梅賽德斯(Mercedes)將在2022年前推出旗下全系車型的電動(dòng)版本。全球最大的汽車制造商大眾(VW)表示，會(huì)在2025年前推出50款純電動(dòng)車型，并在2030年前實(shí)現(xiàn)旗下300款車型的電動(dòng)化。

There is a real sense that the industry is nearing an inflection point. This is partly due to advances in battery technology and changing public perceptions: electric cars are becoming desirable. But it is driven by policy. European regulators were previously content to set environmental standards and let manufacturers decide how to meet them. Since the emissions cheating scandal, they are quite reasonably inclined to be more prescriptive.

這讓人們真的感到汽車業(yè)正瀕臨一個(gè)拐點(diǎn)。在一定程度上這是由電池技術(shù)的進(jìn)步及公眾觀念的轉(zhuǎn)變帶來(lái)的：對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車的需求正在增加。但真正的推動(dòng)力量是政策。歐洲的監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)以往安于制定環(huán)境標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，讓制造商們決定如何達(dá)標(biāo)。自從爆出了排放欺詐丑聞，他們理所當(dāng)然會(huì)加強(qiáng)規(guī)范。

The UK and France propose phasing out new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040. City mayors are able to act much faster: Paris, Stuttgart and Madrid are among those that will ban diesel vehicles by 2025. This is prompting a rapid change in consumer behaviour: few people will risk buying a car that may be of limited use within a decade. Chinese authorities are now considering whether to impose similar restrictions: if they do, there will probably be a long period in which hybrid vehicles outnumber all-electric models, but there will be little future for petrol and diesel in either Asian or European markets.

英國(guó)和法國(guó)提出在2040年前逐步停售汽油和柴油汽車。市長(zhǎng)們的行動(dòng)要快得多：巴黎、斯圖加特和馬德里等城市將在2025年前禁止柴油汽車。這正促使消費(fèi)者們的行為發(fā)生一個(gè)迅速的轉(zhuǎn)變：很少有人會(huì)冒險(xiǎn)買一輛在十年之內(nèi)使用有可能受限的車。中國(guó)當(dāng)局正在考慮是否實(shí)施類似的限制：如果他們也出臺(tái)了限制措施，可能很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)混合動(dòng)力汽車的數(shù)量仍會(huì)比純電動(dòng)車型多，但無(wú)論是亞洲還是歐洲市場(chǎng)，汽油和柴油汽車都幾乎不再有未來(lái)可言。

Such a radical change brings challenges, ranging from the need to set up charging infrastructure, to the problems of managing new demands on power grids. And electric cars will of course only be as clean as the source from which electricity is generated. For car industry executives, though, there is a more pressing question: can they continue to make money?

這一巨變帶來(lái)了不少挑戰(zhàn)，從需要設(shè)立充電基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，到管理對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)的新需求等問(wèn)題。此外，電動(dòng)汽車的清潔程度當(dāng)然完全取決于電力的來(lái)源。然而，對(duì)汽車行業(yè)的高管們來(lái)說(shuō)，有一個(gè)更加迫切的問(wèn)題：他們還能不能繼續(xù)賺錢?

Carmakers’ margins are already stretched. The switch to electric vehicles will erode profitability further, since they will, at least initially, face higher component costs and lower sales volumes, while investing large sums in research and development.

汽車制造商們的利潤(rùn)已經(jīng)非常薄。轉(zhuǎn)向生產(chǎn)電動(dòng)汽車將進(jìn)一步削弱其盈利能力，因?yàn)樗麄儗?mdash;—至少在最初階段——面臨較高的零部件成本和較低的銷量，同時(shí)又要在研發(fā)上投入大量資金。

This should change over time as battery costs come down — even if the improvement is not as startling as it has proved to be for renewable energy. The bigger challenge is that electric vehicles could fundamentally change carmakers’ business model. At present, the manufacturers control design, branding and the most important aspects of production. In future, up to 50 per cent of the value of the car could lie in electrical systems and electronics, rather than mechanical systems.

隨著電池成本的降低，這一點(diǎn)應(yīng)該會(huì)逐漸好轉(zhuǎn)——即使這種改進(jìn)并不如可再生資源那樣顯著。更大的挑戰(zhàn)是電動(dòng)汽車可能從根本上改變汽車制造商的商業(yè)模式。目前，制造商們控制著設(shè)計(jì)、品牌以及生產(chǎn)中最重要的方方面面。未來(lái)，汽車價(jià)值的50%可能在于電力系統(tǒng)和電子設(shè)備，而不是機(jī)械系統(tǒng)。

This is a huge opportunity for suppliers such as Delphi, which hopes to sell millions of the small electric motors used in hybrid vehicles; and for consumer electronics companies that can supply the software services required.

對(duì)于像德?tīng)柛?Delphi)這樣的供應(yīng)商來(lái)說(shuō)，這是一個(gè)巨大的機(jī)遇。德?tīng)柛ＯＭu出數(shù)百萬(wàn)臺(tái)用于混合動(dòng)力汽車的小型電動(dòng)機(jī)。此外，那些能夠提供必要軟件服務(wù)的消費(fèi)電子企業(yè)也同樣面臨機(jī)遇。

If carmakers suffer from the transition, they deserve limited sympathy, given the industry-wide failings that led to the clampdown on diesel. But this disruption could also carry a cost to society, if it both cuts the overall number of jobs available and requires very different skills of employees. This transition may happen faster than anyone has been expecting. Policymakers must be alert and ready to respond.

如果這一轉(zhuǎn)變讓汽車制造商們叫苦，那鑒于這個(gè)行業(yè)普遍存在的缺陷導(dǎo)致了對(duì)柴油的禁止，他們也不值得太多同情。但這一巨變也會(huì)讓社會(huì)付出代價(jià)——倘若它一方面減少了總的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)，另一方面又需要員工掌握截然不同的技能。這一轉(zhuǎn)變的發(fā)生可能會(huì)比任何人預(yù)想得都快。政策制定者們必須嚴(yán)陣以待，隨機(jī)應(yīng)變。