中國科技巨頭發(fā)力智能語音助手領(lǐng)域

Voice-controlled digital assistants across the globe appear to have been given a single order: “Proliferate!” — and nowhere are they scrabbling as fast to follow the procreation path pioneered by Amazon’s Echo smart home speaker than in China.

全球范圍的語音數(shù)字助手似乎都被下達了同一個命令：“擴散!”在中國，語音助手爭搶著仿效亞馬遜(Amazon) Echo智能家庭音箱開創(chuàng)的擴散路徑的速度是最快的。

Some 43m Chinese-made digital assistants were in place last year, according to the telecoms consultancy Ovum. Tech giant Alibaba is entering the fray; handset maker Xiaomi last month revealed a new smart speaker (at a bargain $45), not long after PC maker Lenovo launched its version of one.

電信業(yè)研究機構(gòu)歐文(Ovum)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年投入使用的中國制造數(shù)字助手約為4300萬臺?？萍季揞^阿里巴巴(Alibaba)正進入這個領(lǐng)域;手機廠商小米(Xiaomi)上月推出了一款新的智能音箱(價格僅為45美元)，不久前個人電腦(PC)制造商聯(lián)想(Lenovo)也亮相了自己的智能音箱。

“The world is going to be populated with [such] devices. People are going to make a lot of hardware,” said one player. “There’s going to be tech companies that serve hundreds of millions of consumers.”

“世界將充滿這類設(shè)備。人們將生產(chǎn)大量的硬件，”一家業(yè)內(nèi)公司說，“世界上將出現(xiàn)為數(shù)億消費者服務(wù)的科技公司。”

Digital assistants are the latest ploy by tech companies to pull consumers into their ecosystems and keep them there longer — making calls, shopping, listening to music or navigation.

數(shù)字助手是科技公司把消費者拉入自己的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)、讓他們逗留更長時間——打電話、購物、聽音樂或?qū)Ш?mdash;—的最新手段。

It is early days for the Chinese players, but most have begun with their own product offerings — so JD.com’s assistant can be used to shop on its ecommerce platform — and additional skills, such as weather forecasts, can be acquired.

中國公司現(xiàn)在還處于早期階段，但多數(shù)已從自己的現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)品服務(wù)著手——比如京東(JD.com)的家庭助手可以用來在京東平臺上購物——并可以實現(xiàn)更多功能，比如天氣預報。

China benefits from being virgin territory, says Radio Free Mobile analyst Richard Windsor. Foreign competition is almost non-existent, partly a result of protected markets and also a function of language capability, given China is home to hundreds of dialects.

Radio Free Mobile的分析師理查德•溫莎(Richard Windsor)表示，中國受益于處女地的地位。這里幾乎不存在外來競爭，原因既在于市場受保護，也在于中國的語言(中國有上百種方言)。

Yet analysts are divided on how receptive China will prove to be to digital assistants. Mr Windsor says that Chinese predominantly access services through their mobiles: so while a digital assistant at home beats the PC and web browser more common in developed markets, it offers less of an advantage over the smartphone in your pocket.

但分析師們對于中國未來對數(shù)字助手的接受度有多大存在分歧。溫莎表示，中國人主要通過手機使用各種服務(wù);因此，盡管家中的數(shù)字助手勝過在發(fā)達市場更常用的PC和瀏覽器，但它的優(yōu)勢不如口袋中的智能手機大。

Despite this, surveys show that usage is far higher in China than in the US or UK, says Ronan de Renesse, who leads the consumer tech practice at Ovum.

盡管如此，歐文公司負責消費者科技業(yè)務(wù)的羅南•德雷內(nèi)塞(Ronan de Renesse)說，調(diào)查顯示，數(shù)字助手在中國的使用遠遠多于英美。

The winners, according to Chwee Chua, an analyst covering big data analytics and cognitive AI at consultancy IDC in Singapore, will be those who have been around longest and boast the most data. “To develop that capability, it’s all about the data. The more you have, the better you can train.”

咨詢公司IDC駐新加坡負責大數(shù)據(jù)分析和認知性人工智能(AI)的分析師Chwee Chua表示，獲勝者將是那些開展業(yè)務(wù)時間最長、擁有最多數(shù)據(jù)的公司。“要開發(fā)這種能力，全靠數(shù)據(jù)。你掌握的數(shù)據(jù)越多，就能訓練出越強的能力。”

In China, the data sent back from listening smart devices can be especially useful. Those in the English-speaking world are largely mono or bilingual. In China, where there are well over a hundred different languages and dialects — along with cultural references, sports heroes and culinary specialities and a host of other cultural foibles — platforms have more to learn.

在中國，語音智能設(shè)備傳回的數(shù)據(jù)可能尤其有價值。在講英語的國家，這些設(shè)備主要是單語版或雙語版。在中國，平臺需要學習的內(nèi)容更多，因為這里有遠高于100種的語言和方言，以及各種文化參照、體育英雄和菜系，還有其他諸多文化癖好。

This factor, analysts reckon, could play to the strengths of Tencent, the social media giant, and its Xiaowei voice assistant. Not only does it own the wildly popular WeChat messaging app, with more than 900m users, but Chinese often dictate rather than write their texts — partly because characters are time-consuming to write.

分析師們認為，這一因素可能有利于社交媒體巨頭騰訊(Tencent)及其小微(Xiaowei)語音助手發(fā)揮長處。原因除了騰訊擁有非常流行的微信(WeChat)通信應用(用戶數(shù)高于9億)，還有中國人經(jīng)常是口述而不是手寫消息——部分因為漢字書寫很耗時。

Sandy Shen, research director at Gartner, adds that the real value for Chinese customers — who are comfortable doing searches and similar tasks on their phones — is third-party offerings: ordering meals, booking flights and calling taxis. “But that would take quite some time . . . because it takes a lot of training and data to get the machine up to speed and to understand customers,” she says.

高德納(Gartner)研究總監(jiān)沈哲怡(Sandy Shen)補充說，對于喜歡在手機上進行搜索或者類似任務(wù)的中國消費者而言，真正有價值的是第三方服務(wù)：訂餐、預訂航班和叫車。“但這將需要相當長時間……因為需要大量的訓練和數(shù)據(jù)來讓機器進入狀態(tài)并理解客戶，”她說。

Stalwart smart speakers of the industry include Baidu’s Xiaoyu Zaijia, which had a screen predating Amazon’s Echo Show, and JD.com’s DingDong speaker, launched two and a half years ago by the ecommerce group and commanding an 80 per cent market share, according to Canalysis.

業(yè)內(nèi)現(xiàn)有的中堅智能語音助手包括百度(Baidu)的“小魚在家”——搭載的觸摸屏早于亞馬遜的Echo Show——以及京東兩年半前推出的智能音箱“叮咚”。根據(jù)Canalysis的數(shù)據(jù)，“叮咚”智能音響占據(jù)了80%的市場份額。

Like Xiaomi, whose speaker links up to its smart home appliances, DingDong talks to 100 brands that have smart devices, so can take orders to switch on lights or cook two cups of rice.

像小米的智能音箱能連接該品牌旗下的智能家電一樣，“叮咚”可以與100個智能設(shè)備品牌互動，因此可以接收開燈或煮兩碗米飯的命令。

What is clear, however, is that profitability will be in shorter supply than devices. “In most cases, there is no revenue generation directly from digital assistants,” says Mr de Renesse. “It’s just a new user interface . . . and will only facilitate online purchases of goods, services and content.”

然而，顯而易見的是，語音助手的盈利性將沒有它們可連接的設(shè)備豐富。“多數(shù)情況下，數(shù)字助手無法直接創(chuàng)收，”德雷內(nèi)塞說，“它只是一個新的用戶界面……而且只會使在線購買商品、服務(wù)和內(nèi)容更加便利。”

Worse, he argues, the smart speakers could wipe out existing sources of revenue by diverting users away from ad-bearing screens. “If tomorrow everyone did searches by voice, what would that mean for the digital [ad] display market?” he asks.

他表示，更糟糕的是，智能語音助手可以讓用戶不必再盯著看帶有廣告的屏幕，從而切斷現(xiàn)有的收入來源。“如果明天每個人都用語音搜索，這對數(shù)字(廣告)顯示市場意味著什么?”他問道。

“You could look at it in two ways. Digital assistants could be cannibalising or negating revenues.”

“你可以看看正反兩面。數(shù)字助手可能正在沖擊或截斷收入。”

As such, he views the plethora of devices as a means of protecting business lines and keeping consumers within the company’s ecosystem, much as Apple hardware encourages use of iTunes and other services.

因此，他將設(shè)備的泛濫視為一種保護業(yè)務(wù)線、將消費者保留在公司生態(tài)系統(tǒng)中的手段，就像蘋果的硬件鼓勵使用iTunes及其他服務(wù)一樣。

Analysts also note that as a regionalised business — unlike, say, smartphones — China’s voice-controlled digital assistants are difficult to scale. “The only one that is truly global today is [Apple’s] Siri,” says Mr de Renesse.

分析師還指出，與智能手機不同的是，作為一種地域化的業(yè)務(wù)，中國的語音數(shù)字助手很難形成規(guī)模。“現(xiàn)在唯一真正全球化的是(蘋果的)Siri，”德雷內(nèi)塞說。

This means many speakers will fall silent among the Chinese ranks of wannabes. “You will see massive consolidation because you need size to keep developing the technology,” says Mr Chua.

這意味著，中國的眾多模仿者中，許多智能音箱都將默默無聲。Chwee Chua表示：“你將看到大規(guī)模的整合，因為需要規(guī)模來保持這一技術(shù)的研發(fā)。”