https://online2.tingclass.net/lesson/shi0529/0009/9203/32.mp3
https://image.tingclass.net/statics/js/2012
But complexity makes it hard to mark a path of actionfor everyone who cares—and makes it hard for theircaring to matter.
但是,世界的復(fù)雜性使得我們很難找到對(duì)全世界每一個(gè)有愛心的人都有效的行動(dòng)方法,因此人類對(duì)他人的關(guān)心往往很難產(chǎn)生實(shí)際效果。
Cutting through complexity to find a solution runsthrough four predictable stages: determine a goal,find the highest-leverage approach, deliver the technology ideal for that approach, and in themeantime, use the best application of the technology you already have —whether it's somethingsophisticated, like a new drug, or something simple, like a bednet.
從這個(gè)復(fù)雜的世界中找到解決辦法,可以分為四個(gè)步驟:確定目標(biāo),找到最高效的方法,提供適用于那個(gè)方法的理想技術(shù),最后利用現(xiàn)有的最佳技術(shù),不管它是復(fù)雜的新藥物,還是最簡(jiǎn)單的蚊帳。
The AIDS epidemic offers an example. The broad goal, of course, is to end the disease. Thehighest-leverage approach is prevention. The ideal technology would be a vaccine that giveslifetime immunity with a single dose. So governments, drug companies, and foundations arefunding vaccine research. But their work is likely to take more than a decade, so in the meantime,we have to work with what we have in hand —and the best prevention approach we have now isgetting people to avoid risky behavior.
艾滋病就是一個(gè)例子。毫無(wú)疑問(wèn),總的目標(biāo)是徹底消滅這種疾病。最高效的方法是預(yù)防。最理想的技術(shù)是發(fā)明一種疫苗,只要注射一次,就可以終生免疫。所以,政府、制藥公司、基金會(huì)都在資助疫苗研究。但是,這樣的研究工作很可能十年之內(nèi)都無(wú)法完成。因此,與此同時(shí),我們必須使用現(xiàn)有的技術(shù),目前最有效的預(yù)防方法就是設(shè)法讓人們避免那些危險(xiǎn)的行為。
Pursuing that goal starts the four-step cycle again. This is the pattern. The crucial thing is to neverstop thinking and working—and never do what we did with malaria and tuberculosis in the 20thcentury —which is to surrender to complexity and quit.
要實(shí)現(xiàn)那個(gè)新的目標(biāo),又可以采用新的四步循環(huán)。這是一種模式。關(guān)鍵是永遠(yuǎn)不要停止思考和行動(dòng)。我們千萬(wàn)不能再犯上個(gè)世紀(jì)在瘧疾和肺結(jié)核上犯過(guò)的錯(cuò)誤,那時(shí)我們因?yàn)樗鼈兲珡?fù)雜而放棄采取行動(dòng)。