中國房地產(chǎn)市場現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇跡象

China’s Housing Market Shows Signs of Hope

中國房地產(chǎn)市場現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇跡象

HONG KONG — For the last year, real estate in China has been a gloomy place for investors.

香港——過去一年里，投資者一直對中國房地產(chǎn)感到悲觀。

Housing prices have plunged. Well-known developers suffered. At least one major property company even defaulted on its debt — a rarity in the country’s closely controlled economy.

住宅價格大跌，知名開發(fā)商陷入困境，至少一家大型房地產(chǎn)公司甚至出現(xiàn)了債務(wù)違約。中國在經(jīng)濟上管控嚴格，債務(wù)違約相當罕見。

But there may be small signs of stabilization, data showed on Monday. In China’s biggest cities — metropolises like Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen — housing prices ticked slightly upward.

但本周一的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，房地產(chǎn)市場可能出現(xiàn)了少許企穩(wěn)跡象。在中國最大的城市——北京，上海和深圳這樣的大都市圈——住宅價格略有上漲。

The tentative rebound in some cities’ housing prices suggests that recent steps by policy makers are helping engineer at least a slight turnaround in the market. Last week, the central bank cut interest rates for the third time since November; it had already removed several restrictions on some home purchases.

一些城市住宅價格出現(xiàn)試探性反彈，這表明，政策制定者最近采取的一些措施發(fā)揮了作用，至少讓房地產(chǎn)市場出現(xiàn)了復(fù)蘇苗頭。上周，央行下調(diào)了利率，這已是自去年11月以來的第三次;限購住宅的一些規(guī)定也已取消。

“April’s home sales growth returned to positive territory, the first time since December 2013, following a slew of easing measures introduced to support the weak housing market,” analysts in Hong Kong at Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote on Monday in a research note. “We expect home sales to remain robust in the coming months as the recent monetary and property easing measures continue to provide support.”

“今年4月的住宅銷售增長恢復(fù)到了正值，這是自2013年12月的第一次。此前政府推出了一系列放寬舉措，為疲軟的住宅市場提供了支撐，”美銀美林 (Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的幾名駐港分析師本周一在研究報告中寫道。“我們預(yù)計，在未來幾個月內(nèi)，隨著最近出臺的貨幣和購房寬松措施繼續(xù)發(fā)揮支撐作用，住宅銷售將保持旺盛勢頭。”

The data on Monday painted a divided picture of China’s housing market. New-home prices fell 6.3 percent in April compared with a year earlier, their biggest monthly drop in a decade, according to figures compiled by Wind Information, a financial data service focused on China.

從本周一的數(shù)據(jù)來看，中國房地產(chǎn)市場的走向難定。中國金融數(shù)據(jù)服務(wù)“Wind資訊”統(tǒng)計的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，與上年同期相比，4月份新房價格下降了6.3%，創(chuàng)十年來最大單月跌幅。

But in month-to-month terms, which tend to better capture the most recent trends, prices showed signs of stabilizing, falling only 0.1 percent in April from March. In the biggest cities, prices increased, rising at their fastest pace since late 2013.

但是逐月比較往往能夠更好地捕捉最新趨勢，從這個角度來看，房價比較穩(wěn)定，4月僅比3月份下降了0.1個百分點。幾個最大的中國城市房價出現(xiàn)上漲，漲速也達到了2013年底以來的最高水平。

Plunging housing prices in China were partly to blame last month when Kaisa Group became the first Chinese developer to default on its overseas debt, throwing a chill over the market.

中國房價大跌的部分原因在于，佳兆業(yè)集團上個月成為中國第一家海外債務(wù)違約的開發(fā)商，給市場注入了一股寒意。

Even with tentative indications of a turnaround, investors say a genuine recovery in Chinese housing may still be some way off.

即使出現(xiàn)了初步復(fù)蘇跡象，投資者表示，中國房地產(chǎn)真正的復(fù)蘇可能仍然有待時日。

“The issue that really began to scare us is the extent of the inventory overhang,” Russell Platt, the chief executive of Forum Partners, a private equity firm based in London that invests in Chinese real estate, said of China’s glut of unsold homes. Forum was an early investor in Kaisa, but cashed out well before the default.

“真正令我們擔心的，是庫存過剩的程度，”私募股權(quán)投資公司Forum Partners的首席執(zhí)行官拉塞爾·普拉特(Russell Platt)談到中國待售房屋供大于求的狀況時說。該公司總部設(shè)在倫敦，對中國房地產(chǎn)市場進行了投資，并曾在佳兆業(yè)發(fā)展的早期投資過該公司，但在其違約前早已獲利出清。

Forum has been slowing its investments into China’s property market. “You have to know when to get in, but more important, you’ve really got to know when to get out,” Mr. Platt said.

Forum Partners已經(jīng)放慢了對中國房地產(chǎn)市場的投資。“你必須知道什么時候入場，但更重要的是，你真的得知道什么時候離場，”普拉特說。

China’s residential property market is a major indicator of the country’s economic health. By some economists’ estimates, housing and related industries account for more than 20 percent of China’s gross domestic product. Partly as a result of the sluggish property market, China’s economy grew at its slowest pace in six years in the first quarter, as the Communist Party tried to reduce China’s reliance on credit-propelled investment and to bolster consumer demand.

中國的住宅房地產(chǎn)市場是該國經(jīng)濟健康的重要指標。據(jù)一些經(jīng)濟學(xué)家估計，住宅及相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)在中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)中占比逾20%。今年第一季度中國經(jīng)濟增速降至六年來的最低水平，部分原因就是房地產(chǎn)市場的低迷，其他原因包括中共試圖減輕經(jīng)濟對信貸推動的投資的依賴，并提升消費需求。

If it continues, the improvement in housing prices in recent months could provide help to some of the hardest-hit parts of the economy, lifting businesses as diverse as developers, construction companies, steel and cement plants, property brokerages and banks.

如果房價在近幾個月里的回升能夠繼續(xù)下去，可能就會為一些遭受重擊的經(jīng)濟部門提供助力，推動開發(fā)商、建筑公司、鋼鐵，水泥、房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀公司和銀行等多個領(lǐng)域的增長。

One of the biggest challenges to a recovery in China’s residential property market remains huge swaths of unsold homes, but the situation varies greatly across the country. In a working paper published last month, economists at the International Monetary Fund found that overbuilding in China’s so-called Tier 1 cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen had created an inventory equal to less than 12 months’ worth of sales.

中國住宅市場復(fù)蘇的最大挑戰(zhàn)仍然是房屋存量巨大，但不同地方的情況大不相同。上個月，國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家發(fā)表了一份初步報告稱，在北京、上海、廣州和深圳等一線城市，過度建設(shè)導(dǎo)致房屋存量超過11個月的銷售量。

That level is fairly manageable, especially considering that those cities continue to attract migrants from the countryside. But in Tier 2 cities, unsold inventories rose to nearly 1.5 years’ worth of sales. China’s least-developed cities, those in Tier 3 and Tier 4, had an alarmingly high stock of unsold homes equal to nearly three years’ worth of sales.

這種水平遠未超出可控范圍，尤其是考慮到這些城市將繼續(xù)吸引來自農(nóng)村的移民。但在二線城市，新房存量接近于1.5年的銷售量。而在中國最不發(fā)達的三、四線城市，待售房屋存量高得驚人，相當于近三年的銷售量。

Despite the overbuilding, China’s heavily indebted developers have only recently begun to curtail borrowing for new projects and land purchases. Last year, net debt levels for the country’s biggest developers rose 29 percent from 2013, nearly twice as fast as their revenue growth, according to calculations by Moody’s Investors Service.

盡管過度建設(shè)達到如此程度，負債累累的中國開發(fā)商直到最近才開始縮減與開發(fā)新項目和購買土地相關(guān)的貸款。據(jù)穆迪投資者服務(wù)公司(Moody's Investors Service)測算，去年，中國最大型的開發(fā)商的凈債務(wù)水平較2013年上升了29%，比它們的營收增長幾乎快了一倍。

Such a precarious financial position could lead more developers to follow Kaisa into default. But other builders appear to have caught a break. Companies like Evergrande Real Estate Group have been promised huge credit lines from China’s biggest state-owned banks. And, following in the footsteps of China’s stockbrokers, property companies have found a new source of funding in the continuing stock market rally that can help them reduce their reliance on bank debt and bond sales.

這種不穩(wěn)定的財務(wù)狀況，可能會導(dǎo)致更多開發(fā)商步上佳兆業(yè)的后塵，出現(xiàn)債務(wù)違約。但是其他公司似乎好運臨頭。恒大地產(chǎn)等公司已經(jīng)獲得承諾，可以從中國最大的國有銀行獲得巨大的信貸額度。而且，房地產(chǎn)公司追隨中國股票經(jīng)紀商的腳步，在持續(xù)上漲的股市中找到了新的資金來源，可以幫助它們減少對銀行債務(wù)和債券銷售的依賴。

Last week, China Resources Land raised 10 billion Hong Kong dollars, or $1.3 billion, by selling new shares. Also last week, Yuzhou Properties, a smaller developer, said it would raise 800 million Hong Kong dollars in a share sale.

上周，華潤置地公司通過出售新股籌集了100億港元。禹洲地產(chǎn)是一家較小的開發(fā)商，它也在上周表示，將通過售股籌集8億港元。