財(cái)富精英勵(lì)志演講 第35期:巴菲特:決定你成功的因素(5)

[00:00.01]But time is the friend of the wonderful business; it is the enemy of the lousy business. 時(shí)間是好生意的朋友，卻是壞生意的敵人。 [00:05.25]If you are in a lousy business for a long time, you are going to get a lousy result even if you buy it cheap. 如果你陷在糟糕的生意里太久的話，你的結(jié)果也一定會(huì)糟糕，即使你的買入價(jià)很便宜。 [00:09.43]If you are in a wonderful business for a long time, even if you pay a little bit too much going in, you will get a wonderful result if you stay in a long time. 如果你在一樁好生意里，即使你開始多付了一點(diǎn)額外的成本，如果你做的足夠久的話，你的回報(bào)一定是可觀的。 [00:16.11]I find very few wonderful businesses in Japan at present now. 我現(xiàn)在從日本沒發(fā)現(xiàn)什么好生意。 [00:20.38]They may change the culture in some way, so that management gets more stockholder responsive over there and stock returns are higher. 也可能日本的文化會(huì)作某些改變，比如他們的管理層可能會(huì)對公司股票的責(zé)任多一些，這樣回報(bào)率會(huì)高些。 [00:27.08]But at the present time you will find a lot of low return businesses and that was true even when the Japanese economy was booming. 但目前來看，我看到的都是一些低回報(bào)率的公司，即使是在日本經(jīng)濟(jì)高速發(fā)展的時(shí)候。 [00:34.21]It is amazing. They had an incredible market without incredible companies. 說來也令人驚奇，因?yàn)槿毡具@樣一個(gè)完善巨大的市場卻不能產(chǎn)生一些優(yōu)秀的高回報(bào)的公司。 [00:39.00]They were incredible in terms of doing a lot of businesses, but they weren’t incredible in terms of the return on equity that they achieved and that has finally caught up with them. 日本的優(yōu)秀只體現(xiàn)在經(jīng)濟(jì)總量上，但是這些生意從資產(chǎn)回報(bào)率來看都不樂觀。這個(gè)問題已經(jīng)給日本帶來麻煩了。 [00:47.57]So we have so far done nothing there. 我們到現(xiàn)在為止對日本還是沒什么興趣。 [00:49.50]But as long as money is 1% there, we will keep looking. 但只要還能掙到1%的錢，我們會(huì)繼續(xù)持觀望態(tài)度。 [00:54.47]Q： You were rumored to be one of the rescue buyers of Long Term Capital. What was the play there? What did you see? 問題：有傳聞?wù)f，你成為長期資金管理基金的救場買家?你在那里做了什么?你看到了什么機(jī)會(huì)? [01:02.02]W: Well, there is a story in the current Fortune Magazine which has Rupert Murdoch on the cover. 巴菲特：在最近以魯本·默多克為封面的財(cái)富雜志上有一篇文章。 [01:06.15]It tells the whole story of our involvement. It is a kind of an interesting story because it’s a long story, so I won’t go to all of the background. 文章講了這個(gè)事情的始末，有點(diǎn)意思。這是一個(gè)冗長的故事，我這里就不介紹來龍去脈了。 [01:16.11]But I got the really serious call about Long Term Capital (LTCM). 我接了一個(gè)非常慎重的關(guān)于長期資金管理基金的電話。 [01:20.07]So we’d go with a Friday,whatever it was. My granddaughter, I got a mid afternoon, my granddaughter was having her birthday party that evening 那是一個(gè)星期五的下午吧，我孫女的生日Party在那個(gè)傍晚。 [01:28.47]and I was flying at night to Seattle to go on a 12-day trip with Gates on a Alaska private plane, all kind of things. 在那晚之后，我將乘飛機(jī)到西雅圖，參加比爾·蓋茨的一個(gè)12天的阿拉斯加的私人旅程。 [01:35.23]I was really out of communication. 所以我那時(shí)是一點(diǎn)準(zhǔn)備都沒有的。 [01:36.55]But I get this call on a Friday afternoon since things were getting serious. 于是星期五我接了這個(gè)電話，整個(gè)事情變得嚴(yán)重起來。 [01:41.08]That I have some other calls before that the article get in a few certain where. 在財(cái)富的文章發(fā)表之前，我還通了其他一些相關(guān)電話。 [01:45.19]I know those people, most of them pretty well, a lot of them at Salomon when I was there. 我認(rèn)識(shí)他們，他們中的一些人我還很熟。很多人和我都在所羅門兄弟公司工作過。 [01:49.58]And the place was imploding and the Federal was sending people up that weekend. 事情突然變得很重要，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)周末派了人過去。 [01:55.32]And so between that Friday and the following Wednesday when the New York Federal, in effect, orchestrated a rescue effort but without any Federal money involved. 在星期五到接下來的周三這段時(shí)間里，紐約儲(chǔ)備局導(dǎo)演了沒有聯(lián)邦政府資金卷入的長期資金管理基金的救贖行動(dòng)。 [02:09.18]I was quite active but I was having a terrible time because we were sailing up through these canyons which I have no interests when I was in Alaska. 我很活躍但是我那時(shí)的身體狀況很不好，因?yàn)槲覀兡菚r(shí)正在阿拉斯加的一些峽谷里航行，而我對那些峽谷毫無興趣。 [02:19.38]And the captain was saying: You know, we just sail over there we might see some bears. 船長說我們朝著可以看到北極熊的方向航行。 [02:23.31]While often I said: Straight away, you get good satellite. 我告訴船長朝著可以穩(wěn)定接收到衛(wèi)星信號(hào)的方向航行。 [02:28.34]So it was exactly the picture. 事情就是這個(gè)樣子。 [02:30.57]Both of us got by all faces were going behind me, and I got my back, I am on the phone which was the people talking the way working on the phone. 其他人投支持我的提議。因此，我得以和電話那頭正在工作中的人進(jìn)行了溝通。

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