歷年考研英語閱讀理解1997年05

[00:03.79]1997 Passage5 [00:07.51]Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, [00:11.35]such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" [00:14.87]or "a touch on the brakes", [00:17.31]makes it sound like a precise science. [00:20.90]Nothing could be further from the truth. [00:23.94]The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. [00:28.47]And there are long, variable lags [00:30.74]before policy changes have any effect on the economy. [00:35.18]Hence the analogy that likens [00:37.01]the conduct of monetary policy [00:39.43]to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, [00:42.26]a cracked rearview mirror and a faulty steering wheel. [00:46.90]Given all these disadvantages, [00:49.22]central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. [00:54.67]Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies [00:58.50]fell to a mere 2.3% last year, [01:01.93]close to its lowest level in 30 years, [01:05.05]before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. [01:09.59]This is a long way below the double-digit rates [01:12.71]which many countries experienced [01:14.93]in the 1970s and early 1980s. [01:19.17]It is also less than most forecasters had predicted. [01:22.59]In late 1994 the panel of economists [01:26.63]which The Economist polls each month said that [01:30.36]America's inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. [01:36.62]In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, [01:40.86]and is expected to average only about [01:43.61]3% for the year as a whole. [01:47.24]In Britain and Japan [01:48.80]inflation is running half a percentage point [01:51.42]below the rate predicted at the end of last year. [01:55.36]This is no flash in the pan; [01:57.52]over the past couple of years, [01:59.53]inflation has been consistently lower than expected [02:02.87]in Britain and America. [02:05.89]Economists have been particularly surprised [02:08.81]by favourable inflation figures in Britain [02:11.74]and the United States, [02:13.45]since conventional measures suggest that both economies, [02:17.58]and especially America's, [02:19.97]have little productive slack. [02:22.29]America's capacity utilisation, for example, [02:25.71]hit historically high levels earlier this year, [02:28.85]and its jobless rate (5.6% in August) [02:32.98]has fallen below most estimates [02:35.19]of the natural rate of unemployment [02:37.42]--the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past. [02:42.66]Why has inflation proved so mild? [02:45.38]The most thrilling explanation is, [02:47.70]unfortunately, a little defective. [02:50.33]Some economists argue [02:52.06]that powerful structural changes in the world [02:54.68]have upended the old economic models [02:57.80]that were based upon the historical link [03:00.42]between growth and inflation.

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