金融英語口語 24.Futures

[00:00.00]New Words [00:00.88]新單詞 [00:01.75]T-bond [00:02.39]美國長期國庫 [00:03.03]bond n. [00:03.62]債 [00:04.21]appreciate v. [00:04.82]增值,上 [00:05.43]consequence n. [00:06.18]后 [00:06.92]prediction n. [00:07.55]預(yù) [00:08.18]Phrases & Expressions [00:10.24]futures contract [00:11.21]期貨合 [00:12.17]stock market [00:12.96]股票市場 [00:13.74]S:How are you getting along with your boss? [00:15.05]斯：你和你的新老板相處得怎么樣? [00:16.35]M:Mr. Davis? Fine. He's a kind man. You look excited. Any good news? [00:19.50]邁：戴維斯先生?不錯，他人挺好的，你看起來很興奮，有什么好消息呢? [00:22.65]S:Yes. Still remember I bought two T-bonds at 79-08 half a month ago? [00:26.16]斯：是的，你記得我半個月前買了兩張美國政府長期國庫券的期貨合約嗎?在70-08水平上? [00:29.68]M:You mean that two futures contracts? Of course. They had been worrying you for a whole week. [00:32.85]邁：噢，那兩張期貨合約，當(dāng)然記得，它們不是讓你緊張了整整一個星期嗎? [00:36.02]S:That week was really terrible. The bonds price kept going down and down until the level of 77-30. [00:39.82]斯：那個星期可真是焦頭爛額。債券價格一直在跌，都跌到了70-30。 [00:43.62]But last week, the price went up and up. Yesterday it has reached 86-18. [00:46.90]但上周又開始回升，一直在上漲。昨天都漲到86-18的水平了。 [00:50.18]M:86-18? That is almost 12% more than the level where you bought. How much is one T-bond contract? [00:54.50]邁：86-18?也就是說比你買的時候上揚(yáng)12%?一張國庫券合同面值多少? [00:58.83]S:$100 000 at 70-08. From 70-08 to 70-09 is $31.25 up and from 70-09 to 70-08 is $31.25 down. [01:06.56]斯：在70-80水平上，是10 000美元，如果降一個點，損失31.25美元l反之則增加31.25美元。 [01:14.29]M:So from 79-08 to 86-18 means that... h'm, about $10 000 added, right? [01:18.76]斯：那么從79-08到86-18就意味著，...嗯，差不多增加10 000美元，是嗎? [01:23.23]S:It's actually $14 625. [01:25.45]邁：實際上是增值14 625美元。 [01:27.67]M:Oh, great. Have you sold them out? [01:29.34]邁：噢，太棒了。你對沖了嗎? [01:31.01]S:Yes. I did it yesterday. [01:32.21]斯：是的，昨天我把它們賣出去了。 [01:33.41]M:At 86-18? [01:34.56]邁：在86-18水平上? [01:35.71]S:Exactly. [01:36.47]斯：是的。 [01:37.23]M:Unbelievable! Just two weeks, you've made big money. [01:39.45]邁：這簡直令人難以置信了。才兩個星期，你就賺了一大筆錢。 [01:41.67]How can you manage to do that? [01:42.58]你是怎么做到的呢? [01:43.50]S:It's just I'm lucky. [01:44.67]斯：也許只是運(yùn)氣好吧。 [01:45.85]M:It shouldn't be so simple. Tell me, why were you so sure the bonds price would go up? [01:49.02]邁：肯定沒那么簡單。告訴我，你怎么那么肯定債券價格就會上漲呢? [01:52.20]S:You see, there are many ways to techenically analyse the futures market. [01:54.76]斯：你看、分析期貨市場有很多技術(shù)性指標(biāo)。 [01:57.32]One is to analyse the stock market. From the beginning of this year to October, [02:00.18]其中一個方法是以股票市場為參照分析。從年初一直到十月份， [02:03.04]the stock market has been in a process of continuous rising of price. Because of overbuying, [02:06.38]股票市場一直處于上升狀態(tài)。由于過度買進(jìn)， [02:09.72]the shares has been heavily appreciated. [02:11.49]股票嚴(yán)重超值， [02:13.25]This surely will lead to the breaking of the market and the end of the two-year rising in the stock market. [02:16.74]其結(jié)果必然是股市的崩潰,從而結(jié)束為期兩年的股票牛市， [02:20.23]M:What does that mean to the futures market? [02:21.77]邁：這和期貨市場有什么關(guān)系呢? [02:23.31]S:One of the consequences is that most investors may be afraid they can't bring back their investment and they may shift their money to the bonds. [02:27.74]斯：股票市場的這種狀況導(dǎo)致的結(jié)果之一是股票投資者們害怕市場一旦崩潰，他們將無法收回投資，因此將資金轉(zhuǎn)向債券期貨， [02:32.16]The shift will undoutedly cause the bond price go up. [02:34.28]這會導(dǎo)致債券價格上揚(yáng)。 [02:36.40]Another consequence is that, [02:37.47]另一個結(jié)果是， [02:38.54]in order to save the stock market form breaking and to guarantee the financial repaying ability, [02:41.89]為了挽救行將崩潰的股市和保證金融償還能力， [02:45.25]the government will have to raise the interest rate and as a result, the bonds price will rise. [02:48.33]政府必將會抬高利率，這也導(dǎo)致債券價格上漲。 [02:51.42]M:It's intersting. [02:52.20]邁：真有意思。 [02:52.98]S:In fact, when I bought the contracts, the price was still falling until a week later. [02:56.09]斯：實際上，我買了期貨合同后，債券價格還在下跌，持續(xù)一星期左右。 [02:59.20]M:Did you doubt your prediction then? [03:00.78]邁：那時你懷疑你的判斷了嗎? [03:02.36]S:Yes, a little bit. I thought it over again and I strengthened my judgement. [03:05.06]斯：是的，有點兒，但我想了又想，堅定了自己的推測。 [03:07.77]M:You finished the contracts at 86-18. But if the price will go up further,...? [03:10.94]邁：你是在86-18的水平上結(jié)束了交易，如果它還會上漲呢?.... [03:14.12]S:It is quite possible. You know, it's also possible that it will go down. [03:16.53]斯：那很有可能，但也有可能下跌。 [03:18.95]I think it's time for me to end the action. [03:20.44]我們只想該是拋的時候了。 [03:21.93]M:It's really exciting. Maybe I will try it one day.

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